Report Period: May 15 (Friday) – May 18 (Monday), 2026
1. Core Judgment This Week: Market Enters High-Level Consolidation, Watch for Off-Season Inflection Signals
Over the past week, bullish sentiment following the China-US talks was concentrated in early-week trading. Black metals surged before undergoing a minor correction, but the price center remains elevated. Last week, the average closing price of rebar futures was CNY 3,257/t, down just 0.3% from the previous week. Short-term ferrous prices will continue to consolidate at high levels. The core logic lies in the fact that the accumulation of supply-demand contradictions is progressing much slower than market expectations — total inventories of the five major steel products accelerated destocking to 4.33% last week, the fastest single-week pace this year.
However, it must be noted that the current supply restraint has merely delayed the materialization of imbalances. Mysteel expects a price inflection point to still arrive by late May. Two signals warrant close attention: first, the impact of tight crude oil supply is accelerating from the production side to the demand side. Since mid-May, normal cargo transport in Australia, Vietnam, the Philippines, India, and other countries has already been constrained by energy shortages. Second, the steel industry is entering its seasonal demand off-season. This year, the El Niño phenomenon has brought high temperatures and heavy rainfall earlier than usual, which may pull forward the inventory accumulation inflection point to June.
Trend judgment: Near-term support for steel prices remains strong, maintaining a high-level consolidation pattern, but upside room is limited. Adopt a “bullish but not chasing” stance. Shanghai rebar and HRC spot prices have a fluctuation range of approximately CNY 50/t, with recent highs around CNY 3,350/t and CNY 3,530/t respectively.
2. China Domestic Market: Weakly Stable Weekend Adjustment, Firm Raw Material Cost Floor
2.1 Weekend Spot Market Performance
According to SteelHome’s morning report on May 18, over the weekend, the ex-works price of plain carbon billet in the Qian’an area of Tangshan stabilized at CNY 3,090/t, with spot resources priced at CNY 3,150/t. Market transactions were subdued. Downstream finished product sales were not smooth, and rolling mills were cautious in purchasing billets.
Over the weekend, ex-factory prices of medium and large sections in the Tangshan market remained stable: Zhengfeng 50# angle steel at CNY 3,420/t, 16# channel steel at CNY 3,420/t, and Xinyiyuan 16# I-beam at CNY 3,410/t. Strip steel ex-factory prices were lowered by CNY 10, with narrow strip at CNY 3,340/t, medium strip at CNY 3,300–3,325/t, and wide strip at CNY 3,340–3,355/t.
According to Xiben Information’s May 18 building steel market outlook, night-session rebar futures fluctuated narrowly. The main rebar contract eventually closed at CNY 3,228, down CNY 20 or 0.62% from the previous working day’s contract. On May 15, national engineering demand volume was 20,718 tonnes, a decline from the previous trading day. Torrential rain persisted in parts of the south, demand fell week-on-week, and some traders loosened prices to facilitate shipments. The national building steel price is expected to undergo weakly stable adjustments today, with a range of -20 to 0 CNY.
Current steel mill profits: Blast furnace profit is -CNY 3/t, up CNY 8/t from the prior day; EAF profit is CNY 0/t, up CNY 10/t from the prior day.
2.2 Steel Mill Price Adjustments
Over the weekend, mill pricing diverged. Baowu Echeng Steel raised rebar by CNY 50/t to CNY 3,400/t and wire rod by CNY 80/t to CNY 3,630/t. However, Xuzhou Steel lowered rebar by CNY 10/t to CNY 3,310/t, and Lianxin Steel lowered rebar by CNY 30/t to CNY 3,220/t.
More importantly, leading mills announced June price policies: Ansteel, Bensteel, and Lingsteel rolled out June 2026 product price adjustments, increasing HRC, pickled, CRC, and non-oriented silicon steel by CNY 100/t over May levels. Baosteel also announced a CNY 100/t increase in June base prices, signaling that major mills still hold a positive attitude toward the market outlook.
Weekend Macro News:
- A Ministry of Commerce spokesperson answered questions on the preliminary outcomes of China-US economic and trade consultations: preliminary achievements in the economic and trade field include continuing to implement previous consultation outcomes, forming positive consensus on relevant tariff arrangements, agreeing to establish a Trade Council and an Investment Council, and agreeing in principle to reduce tariffs on products of mutual concern on a reciprocal scale.
- The central bank conducted CNY 300 billion in outright reverse repos on May 15, with a 6-month (184-day) tenor, maturing on November 15, 2026.
- Central bank data shows that in the first four months of 2026, the cumulative increase in aggregate social financing was CNY 15.45 trillion. At the end of April, broad money (M2) balance stood at CNY 353.04 trillion, up 8.6% year-on-year.
2.3 Supply-Side Dynamics
As of last week, blast furnace capacity utilization among 247 steel mills reached 89.72%, up 0.16 percentage points week-on-week. Mill profitability was 64.07%, up 3.90 percentage points week-on-week. Average daily hot metal output was 2.3933 million tonnes, up only 0.42 million tonnes week-on-week and still at a relatively low level year-on-year.
Total output of the five major steel products was 8.4024 million tonnes, up just 0.41 million tonnes or 0.05% week-on-week. Total inventories stood at 15.7529 million tonnes, down 712,900 tonnes or 4.3% week-on-week, marking the fastest single-week destocking pace this year. Weekly consumption reached 9.1153 million tonnes, up 8.4%.
Slow hot metal production growth is a core factor underpinning current steel prices. Recently, the third batch of the sixth round of central environmental inspections fully launched on May 7 for a one-month term. Coupled with MIIT’s announcement to organize 2026 industrial energy efficiency inspections and some mills’ mid-year maintenance, multiple factors are jointly suppressing mills’ willingness to ramp up production.
HRC profits are as high as CNY 150/t; watch for off-season profit erosion: Mysteel points out that current HRC mill production profits reach CNY 150/t. However, considering the approaching off-season, marginal demand decline, and slowing export orders, such profit levels may not be sustainable. Profits are expected to retreat below CNY 100/t.
3. Raw Materials Market: Iron Ore Consolidates at Highs, Coke Sees Fourth Round of Price Hike
3.1 Iron Ore
According to Mysteel data as of May 16, iron ore inventories across 45 major ports in China totaled 165.0193 million tonnes, down 247,800 tonnes week-on-week. Average daily port offtake was 3.2286 million tonnes, up 129,200 tonnes. The number of vessels at anchorage was 106, up 8.
Latest quotes on May 18: Qingdao port PB fines (61.5% Fe) quoted approximately CNY 793–800/wmt, essentially flat from the previous Friday (May 15). PB lump (62.5% Fe) around CNY 953/wmt, MAC fines (60.5% Fe) around CNY 770/wmt.
Last week, the iron ore futures main contract i2609 closed at CNY 838.5/t (data from May 13), consolidating recently within a high range of CNY 810–840/t.
Iron ore market factors are mixed:
- Bullish: Stable hot metal output, declining port inventories week-on-week, strengthening domestic concentrate price support.
- Bearish: Plum rain season weighs on demand, relatively high overall valuation opens room for pullback. Iron ore futures have declined for four consecutive trading days, dragged by high port inventories.
3.2 Coke
The third round of coke price hikes has been fully implemented, and the market is currently stable. Notably, the fourth round of coke price hikes has been initiated, with negotiations still underway. Port spot prices: Grade 1 (wet-quenched) coke at CNY 1,560/t, Grade 1 (dry-quenched) at CNY 1,760/t, first-class (wet-quenched) at CNY 1,660/t (reference to earlier data).
Over the weekend, the coke market continued to operate steadily, and the scrap steel market was generally stable.
3.3 Domestic Iron Concentrate
This week, domestic iron concentrate prices were steady to slightly firmer. Tangshan 66% concentrate index at CNY 986/t, down CNY 6 from Monday, up 0.6% w/w. Chengde 65% vanadium-titanium price index at CNY 940/t, up CNY 5 from Monday, up 0.53% w/w. Huoqiu 65% pellet concentrate index at CNY 1,014/t, up CNY 1 from Monday, up 0.1% w/w.
Domestic mines generally showed a stronger willingness to hold prices firm, with essentially no proactive discounting. Spot quotations remained robust overall.
4. Global Shipping Market: BDI Breaches 3189 Points Before Slight Pullback; Maersk Suspends Middle East Bookings
4.1 BDI Trajectory
This week, the Baltic Dry Index surged before pulling back slightly but remains at its highest level since December 2023:
- May 13: BDI at 3,189, up 4.11% day-on-day, hitting a new high since December 4, 2023. The Capesize index (BCI) at 5,340, up 5.08%; Panamax index (BPI) at 2,454, up 3.98%.
- May 15: BDI at 3,151, down 1.38% day-on-day, a 3-day low. BCI at 5,173, down 2.69%; BPI at 2,521, up 0.72%. But the full week still recorded a cumulative gain of 5.8%.
Vessel Earnings Data:
- Capesize average daily earnings: reached 44,930/dayonMay13(single−dayincreaseof2,342), falling to 43,413/dayonMay15(single−daydropof1,293).
- Panamax average daily earnings: 22,691/dayonMay15(single−dayincreaseof163).
This week, the BPI cumulative gain approached 13%, marking its best single-week performance since July 2025.
4.2 Strait of Hormuz Crisis Escalates: Maersk Suspends Middle East Bookings
Breaking Weekend Development: According to a May 18 report by Shipping Online, Maersk has officially suspended new booking operations for multiple Middle Eastern countries and Persian Gulf ports, while imposing emergency freight surcharges of up to $3,800 per container. Several other shipping lines, including MSC, Hapag-Lloyd, and CMA CGM, have also adjusted their Middle East service strategies.
Affected regions: Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, as well as Saudi Arabia’s Dammam and Jubail, plus most ports in the UAE. Restrictions apply to reefer, dangerous goods, out-of-gauge, and standard dry cargo.
Ports still partially operational: Jeddah, King Abdullah Port, Aqaba, Salalah, and Sohar.
Emergency surcharge scale: 1,800addedfor20−footcontainers,3,000 for 40-foot containers, and up to $3,800 for reefers, dangerous goods, and special containers.
Maersk stated that the current Middle East situation is “highly dynamic and extremely volatile,” and navigation safety through the Strait of Hormuz has not been fully assured. Avoiding relevant sea areas remains recommended at this stage.
Logistics impact on steel trade:
- Surcharges, war risk premiums, and rerouting costs continue to push up overall freight rates.
- Some in-transit cargoes may face transshipment delays, increased storage costs, and extended delivery timelines.
- If vessels continue to detour, total voyage time could increase by 10–14 days, with fuel and insurance costs further transmitted to the market.
- The industry widely recommends that relevant enterprises formulate alternative port and contingency logistics plans in advance, allowing extra transit time and space capacity.
5. International Steel Market Dynamics
5.1 China Export Market
According to Mysteel’s overseas flat products weekly report (May 11–15), mainstream FOB offers for Chinese HRC stood at 518/t,up3/t week-on-week, nudged higher by cost support with limited room for discounts. However, transactions showed a “strong price, weak volume” pattern, with only sporadic small-volume rigid-demand orders from overseas. Buyers exerted strong downward price pressure.
Medium plate export FOB offers were at 548/t,up3/t week-on-week. Rigid procurement demand from Middle East energy projects provided support, but overall transaction activity was weaker than HRC.
According to SMM’s international steel daily on May 15, HRC export prices dropped 1/tweek−on−week,whilesomenorthernlargemillsmaintainedhighofferlevels.Mediumplateinquiriesweredecentrecently,withdealsconcludedtoVietnamandAfrica;offerswererelativelystableat530/t.
Mills are firmly controlling volumes and protecting prices, prioritizing domestic sales resources with a strong stance. Traders mostly remain on the sidelines, cautiously accepting orders only as needed. China’s steel export price advantage remains highly competitive. Tangshan HRC port inventory destocking accelerated to 5.2%, the second-fastest pace this year, directly reflecting resilient steel export momentum.
5.2 Middle East Market
Per Mysteel data, Middle East HRC CFR offers range 515–530/t,sourcedmainlyfromChina,India,andTurkey,withChineseresourcesthemostprice−competitiveandholdingthehighestshare.DestinationportsincludeDubai,Dammam,andJubail.MiddleEastmediumplateCFRoffersrange555–575/t.
Impacted by Iran’s export ban and shipping disruptions, Middle East supply is tight. Iran announced on April 27 that it would suspend exports of 66 steel product categories, including billet, HRC, CRC, and HDG, through May 30. Iran accounts for roughly 1.8% of global steel output.
Current Middle East Situation Comprehensive Judgment: US-Iran peace talks are stalling, and Strait of Hormuz transport remains blocked, with the conflict now lasting nearly two months. Goldman Sachs has sharply raised oil price forecasts and warned that Middle East production cuts are draining global oil inventories at an unprecedented pace.
5.3 Southeast Asian Market
Per Mysteel’s global steel market insight, Southeast Asian markets generally rose recently. Jakarta rebar in Indonesia surged to 9,900 Rp/Kg, with low-priced resources vanishing. Malaysia was stable but cautious. Laos followed Yunnan price increases.
Vietnamese steelmaker Vnsteel announced the official opening of a new warehouse facility, marking its return to the south-central Vietnam market and aiming to strengthen its nationwide logistics and distribution network. This reflects sustained investment in steel distribution infrastructure in Vietnam, which will enhance intra-regional steel circulation efficiency in the medium to long term.
5.4 Turkish Market
Turkish rebar transactions were thin, with mainstream tradeable levels at 590/tFOB,andmillmarginsunderpressure.TurkishHRCexportFOBoffersat710/t, up 10/tw/w;mediumplateexportFOBat750/t, up $10/t w/w. Supported by high costs, export offers remain firm, but actual deals are limited due to weak European demand and trade barriers.
5.5 Other Market Updates
- Japan: HRC export FOB offers at 668/t,up10/t w/w.
- South Korea: HRC export FOB offers at 645/t,up3/t w/w, POSCO quoting to Southeast Asia/South Asia.
- Ukraine: Metinvest’s Q1 crude steel output totaled 454,000 tonnes, down 19.5% q/q and down 7% y/y.
- Spain: Stainless steel group Acerinox tightened capacity utilization due to falling demand. Its smelter’s total output fell 4% y/y to 493,000 tonnes. US flat product apparent consumption dropped 11% y/y, and European consumption fell 7% y/y.
6. Export Policy and International Trade Barriers
6.1 Export Licensing Administration
Starting January 1, 2026, 300 steel products were included under export licensing administration. After steel products became subject to export licensing, a trend of some products shifting from export to domestic sales has emerged. In January-March 2026, steel exports fell 9.9% year-on-year.
6.2 International Trade Barrier Updates
US Launches Anti-Dumping Investigation on Tinplate from China and Turkey: The US Department of Commerce formally initiated anti-dumping (AD) investigations on tinplate from China and Turkey on April 29, and simultaneously launched a countervailing duty (CVD) investigation on Chinese-origin products. The products involved include tinplate and tin-free steel used in food cans and other packaging applications.
US Maintains AD/CVD Measures on Non-Oriented Electrical Steel: On April 29, 2026, the US International Trade Commission (ITC) voted to make affirmative final determinations in the second sunset review of AD orders on non-oriented electrical steel (NOES) from China, Germany, Japan, South Korea, and Sweden, and in the second sunset review of the CVD order on NOES from China. It ruled that revoking the existing measures would likely lead to material injury to the US industry. Existing measures remain in effect.
Frequent Trade Remedy Cases in April 2026: Per Mysteel’s incomplete statistics, in April 2026, China’s Trade Remedy Information Network sequentially published 23 foreign-initiated anti-dumping, anti-subsidy investigations or rulings targeting Chinese steel products. Products involved include PC strand, HRC, billet, wire rod, NOES, galvalume steel, and low-ash metallurgical coke.
6.3 China-US Economic and Trade Consultation Progress
A Ministry of Commerce spokesperson answered questions on the preliminary outcomes of China-US economic and trade consultations. Current achievements in the economic and trade field include continuing to implement prior consultation outcomes and forming positive consensus on relevant tariff arrangements; agreeing to establish a Trade Council and an Investment Council; and agreeing in principle to discuss tariff reductions on products of mutual concern via the Trade Council on a reciprocal scale.
Positive signals from China-US relations have provided some boost to market sentiment, but specific tariff adjustment details await subsequent announcements.
7. Macro Policy and Liquidity Conditions
7.1 Monetary Policy
The central bank conducted CNY 300 billion in outright reverse repos on May 15, with a 6-month tenor, maturing on November 15, 2026.
In the first four months of 2026, the cumulative increase in aggregate social financing was CNY 15.45 trillion, CNY 893 billion less than the same period last year. New RMB loans in the first four months reached CNY 8.59 trillion. At the end of April, broad money (M2) balance stood at CNY 353.04 trillion, up 8.6% year-on-year.
7.2 Infrastructure and Real Estate
New special bond issuance slowed significantly in the second quarter. As of May 17, cumulative issuance reached CNY 193 billion, a sharp decline of 52.7% year-on-year, a stark reversal from the 21.5% year-on-year growth pace in Q1. The slowdown in special bond issuance will constrain subsequent infrastructure-driven steel demand.
In the real estate market, for May 4–10, new home transaction floor area across 10 key cities totaled 1.321 million square meters, down 16.2% week-on-week. Second-hand home transaction floor area totaled 2.1785 million square meters, up 10.9% week-on-week. The new home market weakened week-on-week, while the second-hand home market remained relatively active.
7.3 Construction Machinery
Since May, the domestic excavator market has seen concentrated price increases led by major manufacturers. In January-March 2026, domestic excavator sales increased 8.25% year-on-year. Excavator price hikes reflect cost pass-through in the construction machinery industry and also indirectly confirm continued active infrastructure investment.
8. Low-Carbon Steel and Green Transition Tracking
8.1 EU CBAM and Carbon Price
EU CBAM has entered substantive charging phase. The first CBAM certificate price was announced in early April at EUR 75.36/t. After full implementation, China’s steel and aluminum industries could face annual carbon tariff payments of RMB 3.2–3.5 billion. By 2034, when CBAM free allowances are fully eliminated, the CBAM cost per tonne of steel exported to the EU will increase by EUR 140–160.
8.2 Industry Green Transition
Tata Steel Netherlands has joined the European research project CiSMA, which aims to use electric arc furnace (EAF) technology to produce high-quality steel entirely from recycled scrap, suitable for automotive and home appliance applications. This reflects the accelerating transition of the global steel industry toward low-carbon paths. Chinese enterprises should continuously monitor EPD certification and carbon footprint accounting capacity building.
9. Special Analysis: Real Estate Steel Demand
9.1 Latest Market Data
For May 4–10, new home transaction floor area across 10 key cities totaled 1.321 million square meters, down 16.2% week-on-week. Second-hand home transaction floor area totaled 2.1785 million square meters, up 10.9% week-on-week.
In the first four months of 2026, the cumulative increase in aggregate social financing was CNY 15.45 trillion, CNY 893 billion less than the same period last year. Marginal liquidity tightening is constraining real estate investment and new starts.
9.2 Special Bond Issuance Pace Slows Markedly
New special bond issuance slowed significantly in Q2. As of May 17, cumulative issuance reached CNY 193 billion, a sharp decline of 52.7% year-on-year, a stark reversal from Q1’s 21.5% year-on-year growth pace. Special bonds are a crucial funding source for infrastructure investment. A slowdown in issuance pace will directly constrain subsequent infrastructure steel demand release.
9.3 Excavator Price Hikes and Steel Demand Linkages
Concentrated price increases led by excavator majors reflect raw material cost pressure on one hand and confirm continued strong demand for construction machinery on the other. In January-March 2026, domestic excavator sales grew 8.25% year-on-year. If this growth trend continues, it will provide sustained demand support for medium plate, HRC, and other products.
9.4 Building Steel Demand Outlook
Overall, building steel demand faces a dual pattern of “infrastructure support + real estate drag.” On the infrastructure side, ultra-long special government bond funds are still being deployed, but the slowing pace of special bond issuance warrants continuous monitoring. On the real estate side, new home transactions weakened week-on-week, and the year-on-year decline in new starts remains large, limiting the pull on building steel demand.
This week, large-scale rainfall is expected across most of the country (May 17–23), with wide coverage and prolonged duration. This will further suppress construction site progress, and building steel demand is expected to weaken phase by phase.
10. Key Cross-Cutting Trends Summary
| Dimension | Current Status | Directional Judgment |
|---|---|---|
| China domestic steel prices | Five major product inventories accelerating destocking, slow hot metal growth, high-level price consolidation | Short-term firm, but off-season inflection point approaching |
| Raw material costs | Iron ore consolidating at highs (PB fines approx. CNY 793–800/wmt), fourth round of coke price hikes initiated, scrap stable | Strong cost support, but ore prices face pullback risk |
| International steel markets | Pronounced regional divergence: Southeast Asia firming, Turkey under pressure, Middle East supply tight | China export offers firm but limited transactions |
| Geopolitics | Strait of Hormuz crisis persists, Maersk suspends Middle East bookings, Iranian steel exports suspended through May 30 | Logistics costs remain elevated, uncertainty extremely high |
| Shipping market | BDI surged to 3189 before slight retreat to 3151, Capesize daily earnings still above $43,000 | Freight rates consolidate at highs, export cost pressure |
| Trade barriers | US launches AD probe on tinplate, maintains AD on NOES, 23 China-related steel trade remedy cases in April | Barriers continue to rise, market access difficulty increasing |
| Macro policy | China-US consultations yield preliminary outcomes, central bank conducts CNY 300bn reverse repo | Policy tone slightly warm, but special bond issuance pace slowing |
Trend judgment: Near-term steel prices will maintain high-level consolidation under cost support and supply constraints. However, as the off-season deepens from mid-to-late May and export orders slow, downside correction risk exists. Shanghai rebar and HRC spot price fluctuation range around CNY 50/t. Maintain a “bullish but not chasing” stance.
11. Actionable Recommendations
🔴 For Procurement Managers
| Product | Recommendation | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Rebar / Billet | Procure as needed, avoid large speculative positions | Southern rainstorms persist, demand declines week-on-week. BF profit only -CNY 3/t, EAF profit CNY 0/t; cost support remains but upward momentum insufficient. Weakly stable adjustment this week, range -20 to 0 CNY |
| HRC | Cautious observation, watch for June mill pricing signals | Ansteel, Bensteel, Lingsteel, and Baosteel raised June base prices by CNY 100/t; leading mills show strong price support willingness. But export order momentum slowing marginally, off-season risk rising. HRC mill profit as high as CNY 150/t, profit retracement risk exists |
| CRC / HDG | Normal procurement | Auto and appliance manufacturing demand stable; June mill prices also raised by CNY 100/t |
| Carbon Steel Pipe | Normal procurement | Tianjin and Shandong pipe mill prices stable; no unusual supply pressure |
| Electrical Steel | Watch mill price adjustments + export tax rebate changes | Ansteel/Bensteel/Lingsteel raised non-oriented silicon steel by CNY 100/t for June. US maintained AD measures on NOES, US export channel remains blocked |
| Coke | Moderately replenish inventory | Fourth round of price hikes initiated; coking plant inventories low, probability of successful implementation high |
| Iron Ore | Procure as needed | PB fines at approx. CNY 793–800/wmt consolidating at highs; port inventories still large (165Mt), but stable hot metal output provides support |
| ⚠️ Middle East-related procurement | Reassess immediately | Maersk has suspended bookings for Dammam, Jubail, and most UAE ports; emergency surcharges of $1,800–3,800/container imposed. Prioritize Jeddah or Sohar ports for cargo; allow extra 10–14 days voyage and 15–20% freight cost increase |
🔵 For Export Sales Managers
| Market | Strategy | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Southeast Asia | Push (top priority) | Vietnam demand growing 5–8%; Indonesian rebar prices surged, low-priced resources disappeared. HRC export FOB approx. 518–530/t,mediumplateapprox.530–548/t; Chinese resources most competitive |
| Middle East | Cautious push, recalculate costs | Maersk suspended bookings; war risk premium at 3%–7.5% of cargo value; emergency surcharges up to $3,800/container. Clearly mark freight and war risk surcharges as “temporary additional charges” in quotations; substitute Jeddah and Sohar for eastern ports |
| Turkey | Differentiated push | Rebar FOB under pressure at approx. 590/t,butHRCexportFOBfirmatapprox.710/t. Focus on high-value differentiated products (high-grade silicon steel, alloy steel); avoid head-to-head low-end competition |
| India | Long-term observation, near-term avoidance | BIS certification barrier difficult to crack; anti-dumping duties up to $223.8–414.9/t; safeguard tariff rates in effect until 2028 |
| Africa | Supplementary attention | Power infrastructure build-out in Egypt and Kenya driving electrical steel demand. Logistics relatively smooth, trade barriers lower. Watch currency risk in Nigeria (naira) and Egypt (pound) |
| Europe | Push only high-value-added low-carbon products | CBAM carbon price at EUR 75.36/t; anti-dumping plus quota restrictions; ordinary product exports are loss-making. Must hold EPD certification |
| South America | Cautious | Brazil has high anti-dumping duties on Chinese flat products; Argentina has strict foreign exchange controls |
⚡ Urgent Note for All Managers
Middle East shipping route logistics crisis escalated significantly this week:
On May 18, Maersk officially suspended new booking operations for Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia’s Dammam and Jubail, and most ports in the UAE, while imposing emergency freight surcharges of up to $3,800 per container.
Alternative solutions: Jeddah (western Saudi Arabia), King Abdullah Port, Sohar (Oman), and Salalah still retain partial operational capacity. For all Middle East orders, allow extra 10–14 days of voyage time and a 15–20% freight cost increase in advance, and clearly specify the party responsible for war risk premiums and surcharges in the contract.
Disclaimer: This report is based on publicly available market information and professional analysis, for professional reference only, and does not constitute specific investment or trading advice. All data and judgments are based on market conditions as of May 18, 2026, which may change thereafter.