Date: March 1, 2026
By: Amy
The first two months of 2026 have confirmed a new reality for global steel buyers: procurement from China has fundamentally changed. The re-introduction of export licenses, combined with volatile raw material costs and shifting domestic dynamics, demands a more strategic approach.
Here are 5 key takeaways for your procurement playbook:
- Build in License Lead Time: The mandatory export license is not a rubber stamp. It requires a valid contract and a manufacturer’s quality certificate . Add 5-10 working days to your lead time expectations for all orders subject to the new rules.
- Re-evaluate Supplier Partnerships: Work with mills that are compliant and capable of providing the necessary documentation smoothly. The policy is designed to phase out less reliable capacity . Your relationship with compliant suppliers is now more valuable than ever.
- Monitor Tianjin Port Data: As a major hub, the operational efficiency at Tianjin Port is a bellwether. While local authorities are managing the transition , any signs of administrative bottlenecks will be first evident there.
- Watch the Futures-Scrap Complex: Price formation is now a three-legged stool of domestic demand, futures sentiment, and international scrap costs . Don’t rely on a single indicator.
- Expect a Price Floor: The combined effect of potentially reduced export volumes (estimates range from 10 to 50 million tonnes annually) and a shift toward higher-value products is likely to create a firmer price floor for Chinese steel. The era of relentless, low-price competition appears to be ending. Strategic buying now means anticipating this structural shift