Report Period:June 17 – 24, 2026
Cover:Germany | United Kingdom | France | Italy
The European steel market has ground to a complete halt. With just seven days until the most significant trade policy shift in a decade — the EU’s new steel safeguard regime taking effect on July 1, 2026 — trading activity is “basically zero.” Fastmarkets describes the market as “dead.” This is not a normal summer slowdown; it is a market-wide holding of breath before import quotas are cut by 47% and out-of-quota tariffs double to 50%.
This week’s Core Europe Steel Weekly Report delivers the critical intelligence procurement and sales managers need to navigate the final pre-safeguard paralysis and prepare for the post-July 1 price reset.
What This Report Covers:
The Pre-Safeguard Freeze: HRC prices are frozen in place — the Northern European index moved less than half a euro this week. Workable prices are consolidating, mill forward offers for July-September delivery are firming at €710–720/t, and buyers who stocked heavily in June are now waiting. The report provides complete price tables across all major flat and long products, with week-on-week comparisons, so you can see exactly where the floor is holding.
The UK Quota Shock: The UK’s safeguard regime, also effective July 1, slashes quotas by 60% and imposes a 50% above-quota tariff. The Category 1 quota for EU-origin steel has been cut by approximately 90% to just 68,226 tonnes. The British Chambers of Commerce warns some companies may “relocate to the EU or cease operations entirely.” UK HRC prices are already up GBP 190/t year-to-date. The report breaks down the quota allocations, the transitional exemption, and the specific product categories most affected.
Port Congestion & Strikes: North European ports remain under siege. Bremerhaven is at a “critical level,” Hamburg yard occupancy is at 90%, Rotterdam at 95-96%, and Antwerp has stopped all barge operations until June 30. German dockers held a warning strike on June 19, and French ports face further 24-hour strikes on June 21 and 25. The report provides a port-by-port status update and actionable routing advice.
Supply-Side Recovery: German crude steel output rose 7.3% year-on-year in May to 3.20 million tonnes, marking five consecutive months of production growth. January-May cumulative output reached 15.70 million tonnes, up 8.8%. The report analyses what this production recovery means for Q3 supply availability.
CBAM & Carbon Costs: The Q2 2026 CBAM certificate price will be published on July 6. CRU Group forecasts it will come in below the Q1 level of €75.36/tCO₂e. The report provides the latest carbon cost calculations and green steel premium assessments, now widened to €0–200/t.
Actionable Advice: The report provides specific, actionable guidance for both procurement managers and export sales managers. For buyers: why you should wait this week, conserve cash, and be ready to execute immediately on July 1. For sellers: why you should hold firm on your offers — every signal points to higher prices after the safeguard takes effect.
This weekly report includes complete multi-product market data comparing this week’s figures to the previous week’s analysis, covering HRC, CRC, HDG, rebar, wire rod, billet, slab, stainless steel, and ferro alloys across Germany, France, Italy, and the United Kingdom.
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