📡2026.6.24 Core Europe Steel Weekly Report — Free Sample

Report Period: June 17 – 24, 2026
Coverage: Germany | United Kingdom | France | Italy

📌 Core Insights (Excerpt)

📌 Market Frozen — “Activity Is Basically Zero” Ahead of July 1 Safeguard — With just seven days until the EU’s new steel safeguard regime takes effect, trading activity has ground to a complete halt. “Activity is basically zero, because nobody knows what will happen after July 1,” a buyer told Fastmarkets. “The market is calm and some people are even saying it’s dead,” a seller added. The regulation cuts duty-free quotas by 47% to 18.3 million tonnes and doubles the out-of-quota tariff to 50% from July 1.

📌 HRC Prices Frozen in Place — Floor Solidifying Despite Absent Demand — Fastmarkets’ daily HRC index ex-works Northern Europe was calculated at €686.25/t on June 19, down only €0.42/t week-on-week. The workable range tightened to €675–685/t, with the lower bound actually firming. Mill offers for July-September delivery consolidated at €710–720/t, signaling that mills are positioning for post-safeguard price increases.

📌 UK Downstream Alarm — Companies May “Relocate to the EU or Cease Operations” — The British Chambers of Commerce warned on June 17 that the UK’s 60% quota cut and 50% tariff could create “real financial and logistical problems” for downstream industries. Some companies told the BCC they would not be able to continue operating under the proposed regime. The Category 1 quota for EU-origin steel has been slashed by ~90% to just 68,226 tonnes. UK HRC prices are already up GBP 190/t year-to-date.

📌 German Crude Steel Output Up 7.3% YoY in May — Five-Month Growth Streak — Germany produced 3.20 million tonnes of crude steel in May 2026, marking five consecutive months of production growth. January-May cumulative output reached 15.70 million tonnes, up 8.8% year-on-year. Mills are producing in anticipation of tighter import conditions post-July 1.

💰 Price Snapshot (Selected)

🛡️ Policy & Logistics Alert

EU Safeguard — 7 Days to Impact: The new regulation enters force on July 1, 2026. Annual duty-free quota: 18.3 million tonnes (47% cut). Out-of-quota tariff: 50% (doubled from 25%). Melt-and-pour traceability from October 1, 2026. Quarterly carry-over flexibility in the first year. Country-specific quotas remain unpublished, making July import contracting impossible.

UK Safeguard — 7 Days to Impact: Quotas cut by 60%, out-of-quota tariff 50% across 20 product categories. Category 1 (EU origin) quota slashed by ~90% to 68,226 tonnes. Transitional exemption for goods under contracts agreed before March 14, 2026.

Port Congestion & Strikes: Bremerhaven at a “critical level.” Hamburg CTA yard occupancy at 90%. Rotterdam RWG at 95%, ECT at 96%. Antwerp barge operations stopped until June 30. German dockers held a warning strike on June 19 affecting Hamburg, Bremerhaven, Wilhelmshaven, and Emden. French port 24-hour strikes on June 21 and 25, plus four-hour walkouts on three days each week at six major ports.

CBAM Q2 Price — July 6 Publication: The Q2 2026 CBAM certificate price will be published on July 6. CRU Group forecasts it will come in below the Q1 level of €75.36/tCO₂e.

💡 Sample Actionable Advice

For Procurement Managers:
✅ Wait — do not buy anything this week. With the safeguard taking effect on July 1 and the market completely frozen, any purchase made now is a bet on an unknowable post-July 1 price. Your June stockpiling should be complete. Conserve cash and be ready to act quickly once the post-safeguard price direction becomes clear in the first two weeks of July. Mills are targeting €710–720/t for July-September delivery, but the magnitude of the increase is uncertain.

⚠️ Prepare for immediate action on July 1. Have your Q3 procurement plan ready to execute within the first two weeks of July. Pre-qualify alternative suppliers in Turkey, India, and Egypt for import volumes if quotas allow. The window for competitive Q3 sourcing may be narrow.

For Export Sales Managers:
✅ Hold firm on your offers — do not discount into a dead market. The current paralysis is temporary and driven entirely by pre-safeguard uncertainty. Every signal points to higher prices after July 1: mills are consolidating forward offers at €710–720/t, UK prices are already up GBP 190/t year-to-date, and European buyers expect increases “regardless of demand.” Maintain your price levels and be prepared to raise them on July 1.

This free sample represents a fraction of the full weekly report and accompanying Week-on-Week Deep Dive Analysis. Subscribers receive:

• Complete price tables for all major steel products across Germany, France, Italy, and the UK with week-on-week comparisons
• Full import viability assessments factoring in CBAM carbon costs, tariff scenarios, and quota utilisation
• Detailed policy and trade risk analysis with legislative timelines for both EU and UK
• Anti-dumping and trade defence analysis by product, country, and grade
• Supply and inventory dynamics including port congestion metrics, mill production data, and outage tracking
• Dedicated action advice for both procurement and sales managers
• Week-on-Week Deep Dive Analysis across seven analytical dimensions
• Forward Calendar of key dates for the next 30 days

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