📡2026.6.3 CIS Steel Weekly Report — Free Sample

Report Period: May 27 – June 3, 2026
Coverage: Russia | Ukraine | Kazakhstan

📌 1. Core Insights

📌 Iran extends steel export ban indefinitely — 10 million tpy remains offline for foreseeable future — Iran formally extended its suspension of 66 steel product categories beyond the May 30 deadline, confirming the ban will remain until “the state of emergency is lifted.” Mobarakeh Steel and Khuzestan Steel remain severely damaged, locking in a structural supply deficit that supports billet prices globally. ▲ (Source: IRNA, May 31; Mysteel, June 1, 2026)

📌 Rouble stabilises near 80/USD after May turmoil — Russian billet FOB eases as mills pass through FX benefit — Following the dramatic 11.7% depreciation of late May, the rouble has entered a period of calm near the 80/USD threshold. Russian mills are actively reducing dollar offers, restoring a small discount to Chinese billet. Full pass-through analysis, FX impact modelling, and specific price targets are reserved for subscribers. (Source: CBR, June 1; Mysteel, May 30, 2026)

📌 EU publishes country-specific steel quotas — Ukraine allocated 1.2 million tonnes, well below 2025 export levels — The European Commission released proposed tariff-rate quotas per country on June 1. Ukraine’s allocation represents a significant reduction from historical export volumes, while Russian finished steel is effectively excluded. The 50% out-of-quota tariff takes effect July 1. (Source: European Commission, June 1; GMK Center, June 2, 2026)

📌 Novorossiysk experiences first attack-free week since early April — war risk premiums decline to lowest since March — No drone attacks were reported this week, allowing port operations to fully normalise. Insurance premiums have moderated, reducing landed costs for Black Sea steel shipments. ▲ (Source: Marine Insight, June 2; Reuters, June 1, 2026)

📌 Russia SPOT system becomes mandatory — initial customs delays reported but system operational — The pre-clearance system for all EAEU road imports went live on June 1. Over 5,000 successful pre-clearances were processed on the first day, though some border points reported verification delays. Non-compliant cargo is being denied entry. (Source: Russian FCS, June 2; AKM.ru, June 1, 2026)

💰 2. Price & Cost Analysis (Sample Structure — Data Reserved)

🇷🇺 Russia – Export Prices (FOB Black Sea)

Competitiveness Assessment – Russia vs. China vs. Turkey

🔒 Full price tables — including CFR Turkey/Asia/India benchmarks, the weekly Rouble Transmission Mechanism model with pass-through rate analysis, Ukrainian distressed pricing, Kazakhstan rail-based values, and the complete week-on-week change comparison — are available exclusively in the complete report.

🛡️ 3. Geopolitical & Logistics Risk (Sample Excerpts)

Black Sea — First Attack-Free Week Since Early April

• No drone attacks on Novorossiysk were reported in the week to June 3, marking a significant improvement in the security environment.
• War risk insurance premiums have declined to their lowest levels since March, reducing landed costs for Black Sea shipments.
• All berths remain operational; oil exports have returned to pre-attack levels.

EU Country-Specific Quotas Published (June 1)

• Ukraine allocated 1.2 million tonnes of duty-free access — higher than the previously feared 713,000 tonnes but still a 55% cut from 2025 export levels.
• Russian finished steel effectively excluded; only limited slab volumes continue through September 2028.
• 50% out-of-quota tariff takes effect July 1, 2026 — four weeks away.

Black Sea Shipping Risk Rating

🔒 Weekly war risk premium updates, alternative port routing cost models, and recovery time analysis from the three May attacks are reserved for subscribers.

⚖️ 4. Policy & Compliance Update (Sample Excerpts)

*🔒 Full legislative tracking with implementation timelines, SPOT compliance checklists, and the Trade Barrier Quick-Reference Matrix covering AD duties, safeguard measures, and alternative suppliers across 5 product categories is reserved for subscribers.*

💡 5. Actionable Advice (Sample Framework)

For Procurement Managers (Buyers)

• ✅ Lock in Russian billet during the pre-Eid lull — Mills have passed through more than 100% of the rouble depreciation benefit, creating the best entry point in over two months. Specific price targets, timing windows, and the optimal post-Eid restocking strategy are reserved for subscribers.
• ✅ Finalise all EU-bound non-Russian steel bookings by mid-June — Only four weeks remain before the 50% tariff. Country-specific quota utilisation guidance and alternative origin mapping are in the full report.
• ⚠️ Ensure SPOT compliance — Non-compliant cargo is being denied entry at EAEU borders. Step-by-step compliance checklists and customs broker readiness guides are available to subscribers.

For Export Sales Managers (Sellers)

• ✅ Position Russian billet for post-Eid demand recovery — Turkish re-roller margins are healthy, the Iran supply gap is indefinite, and Chinese billet has recovered from oversold levels. Target CFR pricing and regional buyer mapping are reserved for subscribers.
• ✅ Leverage improving logistics to offer competitive CFR pricing — War risk premiums are at their lowest since March, reducing Black Sea landed costs. Specific cost savings and contract clause recommendations are in the full report.
• ✅ Redirect all EU-bound volumes to Turkey, MENA, and Southeast Asia — The EU market closes to Russian finished steel in four weeks. The Iran ban has created an urgent supply gap in GCC markets that Russian billet can fill. Detailed market absorption analysis is reserved for subscribers.

🌍 6. Major Events This Week (Sample Headlines)

• May 31: Iran extends steel export ban indefinitely — structural supply deficit of ~10 million tpy locked in.
• June 1: EU publishes country-specific steel quotas; Ukraine gets 1.2Mt; Russian finished steel excluded.
• June 1: Russia SPOT system becomes mandatory; over 5,000 pre-clearances on first day; initial border delays reported.
• June 1: Rouble stabilises near 80/USD after May volatility; Russian mills actively pass through FX benefit.
• Week to June 3: Novorossiysk records first attack-free week since early April; war risk premiums decline.
• Week to June 1: Chinese billet FOB recovers sharply from late-May lows; Russia-China spread normalises.
• June 2: BDI retreats modestly to 3,080; freight costs remain elevated but easing from May peak.

🔒 Full event details with source links, impact assessments, and dedicated procurement and sales advice are available in the subscriber version.

Why Subscribe to the Full Report?

This free sample provides a structural overview of the CIS Steel Weekly Report. The complete report delivers the specific, dollar-denominated data and actionable guidance you need to make confident procurement and sales decisions in one of the world’s most volatile steel markets.

Subscribers receive:

• Real-time FOB/CFR prices for billet, slab, HRC, rebar, and pig iron across all CIS origins, with week-on-week and year-on-year comparisons.
• A dedicated Week-on-Week Deep Dive section analyzing price changes across seven dimensions — price trends, policy shifts, exchange rates, logistics, market sentiment, new data, and overall assessment — with clear attribution of high/medium/low weight to each driver.
• The Rouble Transmission Mechanism model — a quantitative framework translating FX movements into dollar-denominated billet price scenarios, updated weekly.
• Exclusive “Buy/Wait/Sell” calls with precise price targets, entry levels, and timing recommendations — updated every seven days.
• Full legislative tracking including the SPOT pre-clearance system, Russia’s import consumption tax timeline, EU sanctions phase-out calendar, Kazakhstan’s export bans, and Ukraine’s historic CBAM negotiations.
• Black Sea war risk premium models updated weekly, with recovery time analysis and alternative port routing cost comparisons.
• Iran supply shock impact analysis — quantifying the structural billet deficit by region and the resulting price implications.
• Market structure and anti-dumping analysis by product category — identifying which specific grades can enter which markets duty-free and where barriers exist.
• Payment channel compliance guides — step-by-step SPFS pre-verification checklists, BRICS Pay adoption status, and CIPS-SPFS interconnection updates.

Disclaimer: This sample is for illustrative purposes only. The full report compiles data from authoritative sources including Mysteel, BigMint, SteelOrbis, Kallanish, SMM, SteelHome, GMK Center, Ukrmetallurgprom, TASS, Central Bank of Russia, European Commission, Baltic Exchange, Marine Insight, Reuters, IRNA, and Interfax-Kazakhstan. All price estimates, forecasts, and actionable advice are exclusive to the paid subscription. Sanctions, trade policies, and logistics conditions are subject to rapid change. Russia-related trade carries heightened legal and financial risk.

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