Report Period: June 1 โ June 9, 2026 | Coverage: China Export Market
๐ Core Insights
- Demand Slides Seasonallyย โ Five-product apparent consumption fell 3.1% week-on-week to 8.49 Mt. Rebar alone dropped 8.2%, with the southern plum rain season disrupting construction activity.
- Inventory Turns Bearishย โ Total steel inventory (social + mill) rose for the first time in six weeks, edging up 37,300 tonnes to 15.48 Mt. Hot-rolled coil social inventories jumped 60,000 tonnes, indicating mounting flat product pressure.
- Coke Costs Spike, Margins Squeezedย โ The sixth round of coke price hikes landed on June 10, pushing cumulative gains to RMB 300โ330/t since late May. Blast furnace rebar margins narrowed to just RMB 82/t, while cold-rolled coil losses deepened to RMB โ179/t.
- Export Volumes Hit 2026 Highย โ China exported 10.34 Mt of steel in May, up 8.9% month-on-month, signalling millsโ aggressive push to offset weak domestic demand.
- EU Safeguard to Redirect Flowsย โ The EU Council adopted new steel safeguard measures on June 9, effective July 1. A 50% above-quota duty and strict origin rules will likely divert Chinese flat products toward ASEAN, intensifying regional price competition from H2 2026.
๐ฐ Key Export Prices & Weekly Trends
| Product | Export FOB / Indicator | Week-on-Week Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| HRC (SS400, 3mm) | $496โ504/t (deals) | โผ $2/t | ๐ |
| Billet (Q235, 150mm) | $470โ475/t | โผ $1โ2/t | ๐ |
| Rebar (HRB400E) | Negotiable; indicated $465โ470/t FOB possible | โผ ~$2โ3/t | ๐ |
| CRC (SPCC, 1.0mm) | Mills open to aggressive offers; below $520/t achievable | โผ | ๐ |
| Welded Pipe (Q235B) | Oversupplied; offers under $500/t FOB expected | โผ | ๐ |
| Stainless 304 CRC | Tracking LME nickel at $18,064/t (โผ $277) | โผ | ๐ |
Full report covers 8 products, including HDG, seamless pipe, CRGO, and wire rod, with domestic Chinese reference prices.
๐ญ Supply & Inventory Snapshot
- 247 BF operating rate:ย 83.94% (โผ 0.20 pp w-o-w)
- Daily hot metal output:ย 2.4072 Mt (โผ 2,800 t/d w-o-w)
- HRC weekly output:ย 2.9523 Mt (slight decline)
- Five-product total inventory:ย 15.48 Mt (โฒ 0.037 Mt w-o-w)
- Mill profitability ratio:ย 59.31% (โผ 3.03 pp w-o-w)
๐ฎ This Weekโs Procurement Signal
| Product | Action | Guidance |
|---|---|---|
| HRC | ๐ Buy on dips | Negotiate toward $490โ495/t FOB; lock in before production cuts firm up offers. |
| Rebar | ๐ Negotiate aggressively | Target $465โ470/t FOB; weak domestic demand gives you leverage. |
| CRC | โ Opportunistic buy | Mills deep in the red; achievable below $520/t FOB. |
| Welded Pipe | โ Buy | Oversupply means exporters are under pressure. |
| Billet / Stainless | โธ๏ธ Wait | Monitor cost floors and nickel for clearer entry points. |
*Note: This sample reflects only a portion of the full report. The complete edition includes week-on-week data comparisons across all 8 products, cost and margin analysis, policy deep-dives, and targeted recommendations for procurement and sales managers.*
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