Report Date: May 28, 2026 | Coverage: South Korea & Japan
Week-on-Week Comparison Included: May 13–20 vs. May 20–27
This free sample offers a curated look at this week’s most market-moving events and data. Subscribers receive the full report, including complete price tables for all eight steel products, detailed import viability analysis, policy tracking, a comprehensive market structure breakdown by product, and a week‑on‑week deep dive — everything you need to act before the June trade deadlines.
📌 Sample Core Insights (Excerpt)
📌 China Billet Slides to 470–471/t FOB;HRC at 501–508/t — ▼
Chinese billet (3SP 150mm) fell 6–7/t week‑on‑week to 470–471/t FOB on May 27 — the lowest since mid‑April — as RMB strength, soft iron ore, and pre‑Eid demand weakness in the Middle East sapped buying interest. HRC (SS400 3mm) drifted to $501–508/t, with Mysteel reporting “continued decline … market trading remained weak.” [SMM, Mysteel]
📌 Korea Publishes Five‑Year HRC AD Draft; Coated CRC Duties Start June 12 — ⚠️
The Ministry of Economy and Finance published the draft for five‑year anti‑dumping duties of 28.16–33.43% on HRC from Japan and China (public comment until June 15). Simultaneously, provisional AD duties of 22.34–33.67% on Chinese coated CRC (GI/GL/ZAM) will take effect June 12 for four months. Electro‑galvanized and galvannealed products are excluded — a critical detail for importers. [MOEF, May 26–27]
📌 US‑Iran Ceasefire Under Strain; BDI Rebounds to 3,124 — ▲
US “self‑defense” strikes on Iranian missile sites and mine‑laying boats on May 25–26 prompted Iran to accuse Washington of ceasefire violations. Despite the tensions, the US Navy is assisting commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, and the BDI recovered from a two‑week low of 2,964 to 3,124 on May 27. Freight costs remain elevated and have stabilised after April’s surge. [WSJ, Baltic Exchange]
📌 Korean Scrap Shortage Persists; Mills Pivot to Imported Billet — ▲
Major EAF mills raised scrap purchase prices for a second consecutive week. With domestic scrap structurally tight and POSCO’s 2.5 million tpy EAF commissioning in June, mills are now actively importing billet to substitute for self‑produced crude steel — a structural demand shift that will intensify. [SMM]
💰 Sample Price & Change Comparison (Partial View)
| Product | Market | This Week (May 26–27) | WoW Change (vs May 19–20) | Primary Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billet (150mm) | China FOB | $470–471/t ▼ | –$6–7/t (–1.5%) | RMB strength, soft iron ore, pre‑Eid lull |
| HRC (SS400) | China FOB | $501–508/t ▼ | –$1–3/t | Gradual demand softening, ample supply |
| HRC (domestic) | South Korea | ~860,000 KRW/t ▶ | Stable at elevated level | AD protection, Q2 maintenance |
| Scrap purchase | South Korea | +KRW 15,000–20,000/t ▲ | Second consecutive week | Structural scrap shortage |
| HRC (Tokyo Steel) | Japan | JPY 98,000/t ▶ | Unchanged (first pause in 3 months) | Demand resistance, Middle East uncertainty |
| BDI | Global | 3,124 ▲ | +160 pts from May 21 low (+5.4%) | Capesize and Panamax recovery |
Subscribers receive complete tables for all eight products across China, Korea, and Japan, with precise weekly, monthly, and yearly changes.
🛡️ Sample Policy & Supply Chain Update (Excerpt)
Korea’s Trade Defense Architecture Solidifies — June Deadlines Converge
Within a single three‑day window in mid‑June, Korea will finalise permanent HRC anti‑dumping duties (public comment until June 15) and impose its first provisional duties on downstream coated steel (June 12). Nine exporters (6 Chinese, 3 Japanese) retain duty‑free HRC access through price undertakings, but all other Chinese flat steel faces escalating barriers. For coated CRC, electro‑galvanized and galvannealed products remain duty‑free — a critical operational distinction for procurement managers who can switch specifications.
Korea’s Structural Scrap Deficit Drives Billet Import Demand
Korean mills have raised scrap purchase prices by a cumulative KRW 25,000–40,000/t ($17–27/t) since early May. Facing a structural “high‑price, low‑volume” domestic scrap market, mills are now dual‑tracking — expanding overseas scrap imports while directly importing billet. POSCO’s 2.5 million tpy electric arc furnace commissions in approximately one week, adding approximately 2 million tonnes of annual scrap demand. This is not a short‑term arbitrage — it is a permanent shift in Korea’s raw material procurement model.
Hormuz Ceasefire Under Maximum Strain
US strikes on Iranian military positions on May 25–26 brought the fragile April 8 ceasefire to its most volatile point. Despite the escalation, commercial transits partially resumed: Iran’s IRGC claims 117 vessels crossed the strait in five days, and the US Navy is now quietly assisting about a dozen commercial ships. Diplomatic efforts toward a ceasefire extension continue, but the risk of a full resumption of hostilities — which would send the BDI sharply higher — remains material.
💡 Sample Actionable Advice (Preview)
| For Procurement Managers | For Export Sales Managers |
|---|---|
| ✅ Layer into HRC purchases at the $498–505/t FOB level. The soft correction has delivered a meaningful discount from early‑May peaks, but the cost floor limits further downside. | ✅ Hold HRC quotes at or above $500/t FOB. Accept modest concessions for volume, but the cost base and AD‑driven regional price floors justify current levels. |
| ⚠️ Immediately secure coated CRC supplies from non‑Chinese sources before the June 12 AD deadline — or verify if EG/GA grades can meet your specifications, as these remain duty‑free. | ⚠️ Urgently redirect coated CRC volumes to Southeast Asia and the Middle East before Korea’s provisional duties take effect, and aggressively target Korean billet import demand as mills pivot from scrap. |
The full report contains six tailored action items for each audience, with specific rationales, target markets, and implementation timelines.
📥 Get the Full Report
This free sample is only a fraction of the intelligence delivered each week. Subscribers to the Northeast Asia Steel Weekly Report receive:
- 8 product price tables (billet, rebar, HRC, CRC, HDG, carbon steel pipe, stainless steel, CRGO) with FOB, domestic, and import parity data for China, Korea, and Japan.
- Week‑on‑week and month‑on‑month comparisons to track market direction with precision.
- Import viability assessments with landed cost calculations under Korea’s price undertaking mechanism vs. full AD duties — now including the five‑year HRC final draft and the June 12 coated CRC provisional duties.
- Comprehensive policy tracker: Korea HRC AD final draft (with approved exporter list, June 15 deadline), coated CRC provisional duties, alloy steel wire rod investigation, Japan cold‑rolled stainless steel & HDG investigations, anti‑circumvention legislation.
- Anti‑dumping alternative sourcing matrix — exactly which products are blocked, which grades remain duty‑free, and which Korean, Japanese, and Southeast Asian mills can fill the gap.
- Supply chain dynamics: POSCO Gwangyang EAF commissioning (June 2026, one week away), Korean scrap inventory trends, structural billet import demand shift, BDI freight trajectory, Hormuz ceasefire status.
- Currency and FX risk analysis: USD/KRW and USD/JPY with quantified impact on import costs.
- Market structure deep dive by product: market size, growth drivers, local competitiveness, import dependency, end‑use demand mapping, and competitive positioning strategy.
- Forward‑looking price forecast for the coming week with three supporting arguments and one key downside risk.
- Full week‑on‑week deep dive analysis comparing the current reporting week to the prior week across seven dimensions.
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Contact Amy directly at amy@amyinsights.com