Report Period: June 17–24, 2026
Coverage: Russia | Ukraine | Kazakhstan
The global billet market has experienced a structural regime change. Iran’s steel industry fully re-entered export markets in the week to June 19, with confirmed transactions that fundamentally reset the competitive landscape. Khuzestan Steel sold 30,000 tonnes and Sirjan Jahan Steel sold approximately 20,000 tonnes at levels that undercut Russian material by a significant margin. The US Central Command confirmed the maritime blockade on Iranian ports has been lifted, and Hormuz Strait tolls have been suspended for 60 days, further improving the logistics competitiveness of Iranian supply. For procurement and sales managers, this is not a marginal price adjustment — it is the establishment of a new global price floor that will reorder trade flows across the Mediterranean, North Africa, and Asia.
This week’s CIS Steel Weekly Report provides a comprehensive analysis of this transition. Russian billet FOB Black Sea extended its decline, but mills are passing through less than half of the rouble’s depreciation benefit to buyers, creating a widening gap between offers and achievable bids. The rouble weakened sharply, mechanically reducing the dollar price required to maintain rouble-equivalent revenue, yet mills are hoarding the FX benefit — a strategy that faces an imminent test as buyers pivot to cheaper Iranian and Chinese alternatives. Turkish scrap prices tumbled, removing the cost-floor argument that had supported billet pricing through Q2. The EU steel safeguard takes effect on July 1 — one week from the report date — making the redirection of volumes to Asia, MENA, and Central Asia an urgent priority. Black Sea shipping risk remains critical, with multiple tanker attacks reported this week, sustaining elevated war risk premiums that further disadvantage Russian exports relative to improving Iranian logistics.
The report covers all major CIS steel product categories — billet, HRC, rebar, slab, CRC, HDG, carbon steel pipe, stainless steel, and CRGO — with detailed price tables, CFR benchmarks for Turkey, Egypt, and Southeast Asia, and a competitiveness assessment comparing Russian, Iranian, and Chinese origins. A dedicated Rouble Transmission Mechanism model quantifies the pass-through of currency movements to dollar-denominated steel prices, revealing whether mills are passing FX benefits to buyers or retaining them as margin. The Market Structure section provides anti-dumping and trade remedy analysis, identifying which specific grades can enter which markets duty-free and where barriers exist. The Forward Calendar flags the July 1 EU tariff deadline, the July 6 CBAM Q2 carbon price announcement, and the November 16 expiry of Kazakhstan’s billet export ban.
The Week-on-Week Deep Dive section compares current data against the prior week across seven analytical dimensions — price trends, policy developments, exchange rate movements, logistics and supply chain, market sentiment, new events, and overall assessment — with each dimension assigned a high, medium, or low weight. This structured comparison reveals the direction and velocity of market change, enabling procurement managers to time commitments and sales managers to position offers with precision.
The actionable advice section provides specific recommendations for both audiences. For procurement managers: guidance on prioritizing Iranian billet as a strategic alternative, bidding Russian billet at levels supported by the FX math, and finalizing EU-bound shipments before the July 1 deadline. For export sales managers: recommendations on cutting Russian offers to defend market share, redirecting EU-bound volumes to alternative markets, and leveraging SPFS and BRICS Pay settlement as competitive differentiators in an increasingly price-sensitive environment.
This report is designed for procurement managers at importers, traders, and downstream manufacturers, as well as export sales managers targeting CIS markets.
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