📡 2026.6.24 CIS Steel Weekly Report — Free Sample Preview

Report Period: June 17–24, 2026
Coverage: Russia | Ukraine | Kazakhstan
Includes: Week-on-Week Deep Dive (vs. June 10–17) & Iran Supply Impact Analysis

📌 1. Core Insights (Sample Excerpts)

📌 Iranian billet floods back at $415–420/t FOB — Russian premium collapses – Iran’s steel industry has fully re-entered export markets, with confirmed sales at levels that fundamentally undercut Russian material. This structural supply shift has established a new global price floor and is rapidly reordering trade flows across the Mediterranean and Asia. ▼▼ (Source: SteelHome, June 23, 2026)

📌 Russian billet extends decline as mills resist full capitulation – Black Sea FOB fell to its lowest level since early April, but the gap between mill offers and buyer bids remains wide. Mills are passing through less than half of the rouble’s depreciation benefit, prioritizing margins over volumes — a strategy facing an imminent test. ▼ (Source: SteelHome, June 23, 2026)

📌 Rouble weakens sharply to 74.62/USD — gives mills room to cut dollar prices – The rouble depreciated over 3% in a single week, mechanically reducing the dollar price required to maintain rouble-equivalent revenue. Yet mills are hoarding the FX benefit, leaving them exposed as buyers pivot to cheaper Iranian and Chinese supply. ▲ (Source: TASS, CBR, June 23–24, 2026)

📌 EU steel safeguard takes effect in one week — quota cut and 50% tariff locked in – The new regulation is legally binding from July 1. Russian finished steel receives zero quota. The race to redirect volumes to Asia, MENA, and Central Asia is now urgent. ⚠️ (Source: SteelOrbis, June 8, 2026)

📌 Black Sea tanker attacks continue — war risk premiums remain elevated – A Ukrainian naval drone struck a Russian tanker near Novorossiysk, and two Hellenic-owned vessels were attacked. The sustained threat keeps insurance costs high and widens the logistics cost gap versus improving Iranian shipping conditions. 🔴 (Source: NewsOnAir, June 19; Worldports, June 20, 2026)

💰 2. Price & Cost Analysis (Sample Structure — Data Reserved)

🇷🇺 Russia – Export Prices (FOB Black Sea)

Competitiveness Assessment – Russia vs. Iran vs. China

🔒 Full price tables — including CFR Turkey/Egypt/North Africa benchmarks, the Rouble Transmission Mechanism model with pass-through rate analysis, and Iranian offer details — are exclusively in the complete report.

🛡️ 3. Geopolitical & Logistics Risk (Sample Excerpts)

Black Sea — Persistent Attacks Sustain Critical Risk

• June 19: Ukrainian naval drone carrying 450kg of explosives struck the Russian tanker “Sig” near Novorossiysk, causing significant damage.
• June 20: Two Greek-owned tankers attacked; fire broke out on one vessel.
• All Russian waters remain designated high-risk by London marine insurers.

Iran Maritime Blockade Lifted — Logistics Advantage Shifts

• US Central Command confirmed the blockade on Iranian ports is lifted.
• Strait of Hormuz tolls suspended for 60 days, further reducing freight costs.

Black Sea Shipping Risk Rating

🔒 War risk premium estimates, alternative routing cost models, and logistics cost comparisons are reserved for subscribers.

⚖️ 4. Policy & Compliance Update (Sample Excerpts)

🔒 Full legislative tracker, Trade Barrier Matrix, and SPOT compliance checklist are reserved for subscribers.

💡 5. Actionable Advice (Sample Framework)

For Procurement Managers

• ✅ Prioritize Iranian billet – The cost advantage is transformative. Specific entry targets, supplier qualification guidance, and sanctions compliance considerations are in the full report.
• ✅ Bid Russian billet aggressively lower – Mills have the FX headroom to cut prices; current offers are out of step with market reality. Detailed price targets and negotiation tactics are reserved for subscribers.
• ⚠️ Finalize EU-bound shipments before July 1 – The 50% tariff is days away. Quota allocation strategies are in the full report.

For Export Sales Managers

• ✅ Cut Russian billet offers to defend market share – The premium-pricing window has closed. Specific CFR recommendations for Turkey, Egypt, and North Africa are reserved for subscribers.
• ✅ Redirect EU-bound volumes immediately – Market closure is one week away. Absorption capacity analysis for alternative markets is in the full report.

🌍 6. Major Events This Week (Sample Headlines)

• June 19: Iranian billet exports restart; Khuzestan Steel and Sirjan Jahan conclude sales at $415–420/t FOB.
• June 23: Rouble weakens to 74.62/USD, providing Russian mills with significant headroom to lower USD prices.
• June 19: Ukrainian naval drone strikes Russian tanker “Sig” near Novorossiysk.
• June 20: Two Hellenic-owned tankers attacked in the Black Sea.
• June 22: Turkish scrap prices tumble sharply, removing cost-floor support for billet.
• June 16: Ukraine rolled steel output falls 6.7% in 2026; CBAM and quotas threaten deeper declines.
• June 18: Russia extends precious metals scrap export ban, signaling continued resource nationalism.
• Ongoing: EU steel safeguard formally adopted; July 1 implementation confirmed.

🔒 Full event details with source links, impact assessments, and dedicated procurement and sales advice are available in the subscriber version.

Why Subscribe to the Full Report?

This free sample provides a structural overview of the CIS Steel Weekly Report. The complete report delivers the specific, dollar-denominated data and actionable guidance you need to make confident procurement and sales decisions in one of the world’s most volatile steel markets.

Subscribers receive:

• Real-time FOB/CFR prices for billet, slab, HRC, rebar, and pig iron across all CIS origins, with week-on-week comparisons.
• The Rouble Transmission Mechanism model — a quantitative framework translating FX movements into dollar-denominated billet price scenarios, updated weekly with pass-through rate analysis.
• A dedicated Week-on-Week Deep Dive section analyzing price changes across seven dimensions with clear attribution of weight to each driver.
• Exclusive “Buy/Wait/Sell” calls with precise price targets, entry levels, and timing recommendations.
• Full legislative tracking including the SPOT pre-clearance system, EU sanctions phase-out, Kazakhstan’s export bans, and Ukraine’s CBAM negotiations.
• Iran supply return impact analysis — quantifying the competitive challenge to Russian and Chinese billet pricing.
• Market structure and anti-dumping analysis by product category — identifying which grades can enter which markets duty-free.
• Payment channel compliance guides — step-by-step SPFS pre-verification, BRICS Pay status, and CIPS-SPFS interconnection updates.

Disclaimer: This sample is for illustrative purposes only. The full report compiles data from authoritative sources including SteelHome, Mysteel, BigMint, SteelOrbis, Kallanish, SMM, GMK Center, Ukrainian Steel Association, TASS, Central Bank of Russia, European Commission, NewsOnAir, Worldports, Asian Metal, Interfax-Kazakhstan, and AKM. All price estimates, forecasts, and actionable advice are exclusive to the paid subscription. Sanctions, trade policies, and logistics conditions are subject to rapid change. Russia-related trade carries heightened legal and financial risk. Iranian-origin material may be subject to sanctions in certain jurisdictions.

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