Report Period: June 10 – 17, 2026
📌 Core Insights
• Iran steel export ban LIFTED – No extension announced. Approximately 13‑15 million tonnes per year of Iranian slab, billet, HRC and coated steel capacity is set to return to global markets, increasing competition for Chinese and Turkish suppliers into Africa.
• Nigeria green tax countdown – Only 14 DAYS remain before the new excise and green tax regime takes effect on July 1. Importers are accelerating orders to lock in the current 35% duty structure. The naira is stable and external reserves have hit a 17‑year high of USD 50.51 billion.
• Mombasa port congestion WORSENS – The 7‑day average vessel waiting time jumped to 5.3 days (up from 4.5 days last week). Dar es Salaam rose to 4.0 days. Truck shortages and flood‑damaged infrastructure continue to delay East African supply chains.
• China billet FOB firms slightly, HRC stays flat – Billet FOB rose to $473‑476/t while HRC held at $502/t, though some private mills softened offers to $498/t. China retains a $68‑143/t price advantage over Japan, Turkey and India.
💰 Price & Cost Analysis (Sample — Full tables in complete report)
🇨🇳 China – FOB Export Prices (Week‑on‑Week)
| Product | Last Week (Jun 3–10) | This Week (Jun 10–17) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Billet (3SP, 150mm) | $465–475/t | $473–476/t | ▲ |
| HRC (SS400, 3mm) | $502/t | **$502/t** (private mills $498–505) | ▶️ |
| Rebar (B500B) | ~$590/t | ~$590–600/t | ▶️ |
🇳🇬 Nigeria – CFR Lagos Estimates (Sample)
| Product | Last Week | This Week | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Billet | $590–610/t | $590–610/t | ▶️ |
| Rebar | $650–670/t | $650–670/t | ▶️ |
| HRC | $580–600/t | $580–600/t | ▶️ |
*CFR Lagos = FOB + freight + 35% import duty + 7.5% VAT + 1% CISS + 7% port levy. China’s zero‑tariff policy for 53 African countries applies. New excise and green tax take effect July 1, 2026.*
🇪🇬 Egypt – CFR Alexandria (incl. safeguard duties, sample)
| Product | Last Week | This Week | Safeguard Duty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Billet | $580–600/t | $580–600/t | 13.12% (≥$70/t) Year 1 |
| HRC | $620–640/t | $620–640/t | 13.6% (≥$76/t) Year 1 |
🇿🇦 South Africa – CFR Durban (incl. AD duties, sample)
| Product | Last Week | This Week | AD Duty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Structural Steel (China) | Base + 74.98% | Base + 74.98% | 74.98% |
| Billet | $590–610/t | $590–610/t | — |
🇲🇦 Morocco – CFR Casablanca (sample)
| Product | Last Week | This Week | Safeguard Duty |
|---|---|---|---|
| HRC | $610–630/t | $610–630/t | 23% → 19% from June 19 |
🇰🇪 Kenya – CFR Mombasa (sample)
| Product | Last Week | This Week | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rebar | $650–670/t | $650–670/t | ▶️ |
💡 Sample Actionable Advice
For Procurement Managers:
✅ Front‑load Nigerian purchases immediately. The two‑week window before the green tax is closing. Stable CFR prices, a strong naira and the July 1 deadline create a uniquely favourable environment. Open Form M and ensure SONCAP PC certificates are in place.
⚠️ Start testing the Iranian market for Q3 billet and HRC. With the export ban lifted, Iranian mills are re‑entering the market. Request indicative CFR quotes to benchmark against Chinese and Turkish alternatives.
For Export Sales Managers:
✅ Defend your African market share against Iranian competition. Differentiate on delivery reliability, certification support (SONCAP, SABS, GOEIC) and trade finance facilitation.
✅ Capture the Nigerian pre‑tax surge. Quote CFR Lagos with transparent duty breakdowns and assist buyers with SONCAP compliance. For South Africa, prepare buyers for the ITAC rebate permit process.
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Disclaimer: This sample contains partial data. The full report includes complete price tables for all ten African markets, detailed duty and levy calculations, comprehensive policy analysis, logistics tracking, and tailored action plans for procurement and sales managers.