Iran’s steel is back. Nigeria’s green tax is two weeks away. East Africa’s ports are stretched to their limits. These three forces are reshaping the African steel market right now, and this week’s report gives you the data and analysis to act before the window closes.

The Iran Supply Shift

The temporary export ban on Iranian slabs, billet, HRC and coated products expired on May 30 with no extension. Approximately 13–15 million tonnes per year of Iranian semi‑finished and flat steel capacity is now returning to global markets. This is the most significant supply‑side development for African buyers in months. Iranian mills are re‑entering traditional markets in East and North Africa, and the resulting competition will put downward pressure on Chinese and Turkish billet and HRC prices over the coming weeks.

Nigeria’s Green Tax Countdown

July 1 is only 14 days away. On that date, Nigeria’s new excise and green tax regime takes effect, adding a new layer of cost to every steel shipment. Importers are racing to clear goods under the current 35% duty structure while the window is still open. The naira is stable, external reserves have hit a 17‑year high, and CFR prices for billet, rebar and HRC are holding steady. For anyone importing steel into West Africa’s largest market, the next two weeks will determine landed costs for the rest of 2026.

East Africa’s Logistics Crunch

Mombasa port’s average vessel waiting time has climbed to 5.3 days, worsened by terminal congestion, truck shortages, and flood‑damaged infrastructure. Dar es Salaam is also under pressure, while some West African ports are reporting vessel delays of up to 60 days. These logistics bottlenecks are adding risk premiums to CFR quotes and extending delivery lead times across the continent. The report helps you decide whether to route cargo via alternative gateways, build buffer inventory, or lock in freight rates before conditions worsen further.

What This Week’s Report Delivers

This edition compares prices, policies, currencies and logistics between the week of June 3–10 and June 10–17. You will see exactly how China’s FOB billet and HRC benchmarks moved, why African CFR estimates held steady despite those moves, and where the rand, naira and Egyptian pound are heading next. You will also get a detailed breakdown of Iran’s export resumption — which products are coming back first, which African ports they will target, and how Chinese and Turkish suppliers are likely to respond.

Decisions This Report Helps You Make

Whether to front‑load Nigerian orders now or risk the green tax
Whether to lock in billet prices before Iranian supply starts to bite
Which alternative origin to use for South African structural steel while the 74.98% anti‑dumping duty blocks Chinese material
How to adjust East African delivery schedules around Mombasa and Dar es Salaam congestion
When to take advantage of Morocco’s falling HRC safeguard duty and Egypt’s strengthening pound

Every data point is sourced from the authoritative platforms you trust — Mysteel, SMM, BigMint, Baltic Exchange, CBN, CBE, ITAC and Kuehne+Nagel — and every CFR estimate includes the full duty, levy and freight calculation that your procurement team needs to build an accurate landed‑cost model.

This weekly report includes a detailed week‑on‑week comparison of price movements, policy shifts, currency changes, logistics updates, and trade‑remedy compliance analysis for all ten African markets and every major steel product — billet, rebar, HRC, CRC, HDG, carbon steel pipe, stainless steel and CRGO.

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