📡 US-Iran Update – June 19, 2026 Afternoon Session

1. Memorandum of Understanding Signed

A 14-point “Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding” was remotely signed in the early hours of June 18 by Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and US President Donald Trump, who was attending the G7 summit in France. Pakistan served as the mediator, with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif facilitating the agreement.

Trump’s characterization: In an exclusive Axios interview, Trump described Iran’s signing as “unconditional surrender,” stating: “We defeated them totally militarily” and “Who else could have done a blockade like that? I did a naval blockade where not one ship was able to get through”. However, critics note that Trump signed the agreement with none of his original objectives met—Iran did not collapse, did not surrender its nuclear program, and emerged with sanctions relief and a $300 billion reconstruction fund.

Iran’s position: Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei initially had a “different view” of the deal but approved it after the rights of the Iranian people were assured. However, he warned: “If the American side wants to be too demanding, we will not accept it”. Iran’s Supreme National Security Council stated it will closely monitor US compliance and respond firmly to any violations.

2. Strait of Hormuz & Naval Blockade

Key provisions of the MOU:

Current status:

• Oil tankers are already sailing through the Strait
• 12.5 million barrels of oil have passed since the signing
• Iran has not fired on any ships for two consecutive nights
• CENTCOM has allowed “north of a dozen ships” through the blockade
• Oil prices dropped to their lowest level since the war began on February 28

US military presence: CENTCOM confirmed that US Navy vessels will remain in the region to monitor compliance with the agreement, even after the blockade is fully lifted.

3. Next Phase: 60-Day Negotiation Window

The clock started on June 18. A 60-day negotiation period is now underway to reach a final agreement on:

• Iran’s nuclear program – Iran will freeze its nuclear program at current levels during negotiations
• Sanctions relief – The US commits to lifting all sanctions and unfreezing Iranian assets
• $300 billion reconstruction fund for Iran
• IAEA inspector return – International nuclear inspectors will be allowed back into Iran
• Ballistic missiles – The US will seek to limit Iran’s long-range missile program

Technical talks were scheduled to begin June 19 in Burgenstock, Switzerland, with Pakistan and Qatar as mediators.

However, talks have been delayed. Iran postponed its delegation’s travel due to ongoing Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon. US Vice President JD Vance, who was to lead the US delegation, also delayed his trip due to “logistical difficulties”. The White House stated the US team is ready to depart once arrangements are finalized.

4. Critical Challenges & Uncertainties

Israel-Hezbollah front: The MOU calls for the “immediate and permanent termination” of military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon. Yet Israeli drone strikes killed three people in Lebanon on Thursday. Prime Minister Netanyahu has refused to withdraw Israeli forces from Lebanon. Hezbollah continues to clash with Israeli forces in southern Lebanon.

US-Israel rift: Trump has become openly critical of Israel’s operations, leading to one of the biggest rifts between the two countries in decades. Vance warned: “If I was in the cabinet of the Israeli government, I might not be attacking the only powerful ally that I have anywhere left in the entire world”.

Republican criticism: Some of Trump’s Republican allies in Congress question whether he gave up too much to end the conflict.

Iran’s leverage: Critics note Iran is in a stronger position now—having withstood a superpower attack, exerted control over the Strait of Hormuz, and gained valuable sanctions waivers. Iran also signaled it will issue permits and direct traffic in the strait during the 60-day period.

5. Implications for Steel Markets

Key watchpoint: The 60-day negotiation window is just beginning. Any collapse in talks—triggered by Israeli actions, Iranian violations, or US Congressional opposition—could see a rapid return to conflict. The ceasefire is fragile, not final.