2026.5.13 Africa Steel Weekly

For buyers & sellers: Lock in billet before China’s export curbs bite, Iran’s ban extends, and freight costs climb further. Download Report.

For Procurement Managers, This Report Helps You Solve:

  • Whether to lock in billet and HRC orders right now, while buyer resistance has temporarily softened FOB offers, or risk waiting for a deeper correction that may never arrive because Baosteel just raised June base prices for the fourth consecutive month, iron ore has broken above recent highs, and China’s steel industry has announced semi‑finished export restrictions for the next five years.
  • How to prepare for the May 30 expiry of Iran’s export ban on 66 steel tariff codes — with an active extension warning — and whether to diversify your billet and slab supply chain across Chinese and Indian origins before the deadline, instead of assuming Iranian volumes will return in June.
  • How to navigate Nigeria’s improving currency environment and the newly effective zero‑tariff policy for Chinese steel while racing against the July 1 excise and green tax deadline, and how to reroute East African cargo after Dar es Salaam’s waiting time surged to levels that make it unreliable as an alternative to Mombasa.

For Sales Managers, This Report Helps You Solve:

  • Whether to hold firm on your current FOB offers for billet and HRC despite short‑term buyer pushback, using Baosteel’s fourth consecutive monthly price hike, CISA’s semi‑finished export restriction signals, and iron ore costs as structural justification that this is a near‑term ceiling, not a trend reversal.
  • How to redirect structural steel volumes away from South Africa’s prohibitive anti‑dumping duty wall to the zero‑tariff African markets where currency appreciation and approaching tax deadlines are creating urgent buyer demand — and how to help South African clients capture the new US Section 232 exemption for derivative products with low metal content.
  • How to price CFR quotes now that the Baltic Dry Index has broken through a psychological barrier and Capesize rates are at five‑month highs, while simultaneously using China’s zero‑tariff policy for Africa as a structural cost advantage that Indian, Turkish, and CIS competitors cannot replicate.

The core value of this report, in one sentence:
China’s steel industry has just announced semi‑finished export restrictions for the 2026‑2030 plan period while Iran’s 10‑million‑tonne billet and slab capacity stays offline with an active extension warning — this dual supply squeeze means African mills that lock in billet supply now will have material that their competitors won’t find later.

This weekly report includes a detailed week‑on‑week comparison of price movements, policy shifts, currency changes, freight cost escalation, and port congestion updates, so you can quantify exactly how much the market moved in seven days and where it is heading next.

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