Report Period: May 27-June 3, 2026 | Coverage: South Korea & Japan
This free sample offers a curated look at this week’s most market‑moving events and data. Subscribers receive the full report, including complete price tables for all eight steel products, the expanded anti‑dumping alternative‑sourcing matrix with specification details, the new landed‑cost sensitivity reference, a comprehensive week‑on‑week deep dive, and the enhanced market structure section — everything you need to navigate the new trade architecture.
📌 Sample Core Insights (Excerpt)
📌 Korea Enforces 5‑Year HRC AD Duties — 28.16–33.43% Effective June 4 — ⚠️
The Ministry of Economy and Finance enacted the final five‑year anti‑dumping duties on HRC from Japan and China on June 1, with customs collection starting June 4. Nine exporters (6 Chinese, 3 Japanese) retain duty‑free access under price undertakings. All other suppliers face the full duty wall. [MOEF, June 1]
📌 China HRC Export Price Breaks Below $500/t FOB — ▼**
SS400 3mm HRC at Tianjin slipped to **$497–501/t FOB on June 3, the first break below the psychological $500/t threshold since late March. Soft iron ore, persistent RMB strength, and pre‑holiday caution drove the decline. [Mysteel, SMM]
📌 POSCO Gwangyang EAF Begins Hot Commissioning — ▲
POSCO started hot‑commissioning tests at its 2.5 million tpy electric arc furnace on June 1. Commercial production is expected by late June. This marks the opening of a structural billet import channel as Korea’s scrap deficit intensifies. [POSCO, June 1]
📌 Hormuz Ceasefire Extended to Sept 15; Strait Reopens Gradually — ▲
Iran and the US agreed to extend the fragile ceasefire through September 15, and a staggered strait reopening began. The BDI eased to 2,987 (–1.7% WoW), though Iran’s new transit toll keeps freight above pre‑crisis levels. [Reuters, May 31; Baltic Exchange, June 3]
📌 KRW Weakens Past 1,520; Yen Nears 160 — ▼
The won fell to 1,521 on June 3 after the Bank of Korea held rates and lowered growth forecasts. The yen traded at 159.80, keeping intervention risk elevated. Combined, the two currencies have added $12–18/t to landed import costs since early May. [Yonhap Infomax, Mitrade]
💰 Sample Price & Change Comparison (Partial View)
| Product | Market | This Week (June 2–3) | WoW Change (vs May 26–27) | Primary Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HRC (SS400) | China FOB | $497–501/t ▼ | –$4–7/t | Weak iron ore, RMB, pre‑holiday lull |
| Billet (150mm) | China FOB | $468–472/t ▼ | –$2/t | Stabilising; POSCO EAF spot buying |
| HRC (domestic) | South Korea | ~860,000 KRW/t ▶ | Stable (AD‑protected) | Permanent AD duties now in force |
| HRC (Tokyo Steel) | Japan | ¥98,000/t ▶ | Unchanged; July hike signalled | Scrap costs, yen pressure |
| BDI | Global | 2,987 ▼ | –1.7% WoW | Hormuz reopening, Capesize easing |
| KRW/USD | Seoul FX | 1,521 ▼ | –1.6% WoW | Dovish BOK, dollar strength |
Subscribers receive complete tables for all eight products across China, Korea, and Japan, with precise weekly, monthly, and yearly changes.
🛡️ Sample Policy & Supply Chain Update (Excerpt)
Korea’s Trade Architecture Is Now Permanent
The five‑year HRC anti‑dumping duties are no longer a draft or a temporary measure — they are the law. Customs collection begins today. Only nine exporters, operating under quarterly‑adjusted minimum price commitments, can ship HRC into Korea duty‑free. All others face rates of 28.16–33.43%. Simultaneously, provisional duties on Chinese coated steel take effect on June 12. Electro‑galvanized and galvannealed products remain exempt, but the most common construction and appliance grades — hot‑dip galvanized, Galvalume, and zinc‑aluminum‑magnesium — will carry a 22.34–33.67% surcharge for at least four months. This dual barrier fundamentally reshapes procurement: flat steel buyers must requalify suppliers, and coated steel buyers have eight days to act.
The Billet Channel Opens
POSCO’s Gwangyang EAF has entered hot commissioning. When it reaches commercial production, it will add approximately two million tonnes of annual scrap demand to a Korean market already characterised by structural shortages. Mills are already dual‑tracking — importing scrap and billet simultaneously. Chinese billet, at current FOB levels, is cost‑competitive against domestic scrap. This is not a short‑term arbitrage; it is a permanent shift in Korea’s raw material procurement model, and it creates a multi‑year demand channel for semi‑finished steel exporters.
Hormuz Risk Eases but Does Not Disappear
The ceasefire extension and phased strait reopening have reduced the probability of a near‑term freight spike. However, Iran’s new transit authority is charging fees on every passage, and the ceasefire remains fragile. The scenario matrix in the full report quantifies the freight and cost impact of both continued peace and renewed conflict, giving procurement and sales teams a clear framework for contingency planning.
💡 Sample Actionable Advice (Preview)
| For Procurement Managers | For Export Sales Managers |
|---|---|
| ✅ Secure HRC exclusively from price undertaking‑approved exporters. The five‑year duties are now permanent. Confirm your supplier’s status today. | ✅ Defend HRC quotes at or above $495/t FOB. The break below $500/t is FX‑ and iron‑ore‑driven, not a demand collapse. |
| ⚠️ Finalize coated steel sourcing before June 12. Switch to EG/GA if specifications allow; otherwise, lock in Korean or Japanese domestic supply now. | ⚠️ Redirect Chinese GI/GL/ZAM volumes to Southeast Asia and the Middle East immediately. For Korea, prioritize EG and GA product lines. |
The full report contains six tailored action items for each audience, with specific rationales, target markets, and implementation timelines.
📥 Get the Full Report
This free sample is only a fraction of the intelligence delivered each week. Subscribers to the Northeast Asia Steel Weekly Report receive:
- 8 product price tables (billet, rebar, HRC, CRC, HDG, carbon steel pipe, stainless steel, CRGO) with FOB, domestic, and import parity data for China, Korea, and Japan.
- Week‑on‑week and month‑on‑month comparisons to track market direction with precision.
- Import viability assessments with landed cost calculations under Korea’s price undertaking mechanism vs. full AD duties.
- Critical Dates & Deadlines calendar — a centralized timeline of all upcoming policy, trade, and production events.
- Strait of Hormuz Scenario Matrix — quantifies the freight and cost impact of ceasefire continuation vs. collapse.
- Expanded AD Alternative‑Sourcing Matrix — which products are blocked, which remain duty‑free, and exactly which mills can supply which grades under which standards.
- Landed‑Cost Sensitivity Reference — how a ±10% move in FOB, freight, FX, and war risk premium impacts your all‑in cost.
- Raw‑Material Substitution Tracker — the scrap‑billet cost spread and POSCO EAF ramp‑up impact.
- Market structure deep dive by product: market size, growth drivers, local competitiveness, import dependency, and competitive positioning.
- Forward‑looking price forecast for the coming week with three supporting arguments and one key downside risk.
- Full week‑on‑week deep dive analysis across seven dimensions.
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