Report Period: May 6 – 13, 2026 | Analyst: Amy SteelInsights
📌 Sample Insight: BDI Breaks 3,000, Rupiah Collapses — The Market Splits
The Events: The Baltic Dry Index surged through the 3,000 barrier for the first time since December 2023, closing at 3,063 on May 12, with Capesize daily earnings exploding to $46,091/day. Simultaneously, the Indonesian rupiah crashed through 17,500/USD to a historic low, while the Philippine peso staged a tentative recovery from its own record low.
The Week‑on‑Week Impact: Chinese HRC FOB jumped 10–15/t to 515/t, an 18‑month high, driven by the freight surge, eight weeks of inventory destocking, and firm mill margins. In Vietnam, Formosa Ha Tinh joined Hoa Phat in the domestic price‑hike cycle, raising June HRC by 58/t month‑on‑month to 608/t CFR. But the billet market fractured: Chinese billet FOB rose to 480/t, yet CFR Philippines offers weakened to 445–455/t as the rupiah crisis spread demand destruction across ASEAN.
Why This Matters for Your Decisions:
If you are a Procurement Manager, the freight pass‑through has not yet fully hit CFR steel quotes. The 1–2 week lag means you have a closing window to book flat steel before costs rise an additional $10–15/t. If you are a Sales Manager, Indonesia’s billet market is effectively closed at current USD levels. Re‑routing tonnage to Vietnam, Thailand, or the Middle East is now urgent.
💰 Sample Price Benchmarks (Week 19 vs. Week 18)
| Product | Market | Week 18 Price | Week 19 Price | WoW Change | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HRC (SS400, 3mm) | FOB China (Tianjin) | $500–505/t | $515/t | +$10–15/t | Mill cost‑push, destocking, post‑holiday rally |
| HRC (SAE1006) | CFR Vietnam (Formosa, Jun) | ~$550/t (May) | ~$608/t | +$58/t m‑o‑m | Trade‑remedy‑enabled domestic pricing power |
| Billet (5SP, 150mm) | CFR Philippines (offers) | $460–470/t (bids) | $445–455/t | –$15/t | Rupiah crisis spillover, buyer resistance |
| Slab (SAE1006) | FOB China (Shanghai) | ~$480/t | $485/t | +$5/t | Iran supply gap, tight availability |
| BDI | Global | 2,832 | 3,063 | +231 points | Capesize demand, Strait of Hormuz diversions |
| Iron Ore (62% Fe) | CFR China | ~$109.77/t | $112.87/t | +$3.10/t | Firm post‑holiday demand |
Source: Mysteel, SMM, Baltic Exchange, SHIOPI, Industry Data
🚢 Sample Logistics Alert: BDI at 30‑Month High, Freight Costs Set to Spike
The Baltic Dry Index closed at 3,063 on May 12, its highest since December 2023, with the Capesize index (BCI) reaching 5,082 and average daily Capesize earnings at $46,091/day — a single-week jump of nearly $7,000/day. Vessel diversions from the Middle East continue to squeeze global capacity. This freight escalation has not yet been fully transmitted into CFR Southeast Asia HRC quotes. The typical 1–2 week pass-through lag means buyers will face $10–15/t higher freight costs by late May.
💡 Sample Actionable Advice
For Procurement Managers:
- Book flat steel immediately, before the BDI surge fully hits CFR quotes. Current CFR Vietnam HRC at $490–510/t (Chinese narrow-width) does not yet reflect the full freight increase. Combined with firm Chinese domestic HRC at $515/t FOB and iron ore above $112/t, the cost floor is rising. Delaying will mean paying the higher freight-adjusted price within two weeks.
For Sales Managers:
- Reroute billet exports away from Indonesia—prioritize Vietnam, Thailand, and the Middle East. The rupiah’s crash through 17,500/USD has made Indonesian billet imports unworkable above $450/t CFR. Vietnamese and Thai currencies are stable, and Middle East demand remains strong. Slab exports to Indonesia, however, remain viable as local rerollers have no domestic alternative with Iran offline.
Want the Full Week 19 Report with WoW Comparison Data?
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📧 Questions or custom data requests? Contact Amy SteelInsights at amy@amyinsights.com