Report Period: June 24 – July 1, 2026 (Week 26)
Cover: Vietnam | Philippines | Thailand | Indonesia | Malaysia
📌 Core Insights
- China HRC FOB slips further to $490–500/t** – SMM assessed HRC deals at **$490–500/t FOB on June 30. Northeastern mills report deals remain hard to close; North China mills offer lower prices, leaving the Northeast less competitive. (Source: SMM)
- China billet export offers crash to $463–465/t FOB** – Workable FOB offers at **$463–465/t as of June 30, the lowest since early March. Middle East inquiries rose slightly amid geopolitical tensions, but Chinese export billet offers held no clear edge. (Source: SMM)
- India HRC anti‑dumping investigation terminated by Vietnam – Indian SAE1006 HRC can now enter Vietnam duty‑free. Indian offers for Aug‑Sep shipment at $540/t CFR Vietnam, now the most competitive non‑Chinese flat steel option for Vietnamese buyers. (Source: SMM)
- China rebar apparent demand collapses 14.5% WoW – Mysteel data for June 25 shows rebar apparent demand fell 320,500 tonnes to 1.8875 million tonnes. Rebar social inventory rose 131,700 tonnes, and mill inventory increased 113,300 tonnes. (Source: Mysteel)
- BDI plunges 7.3% to 2,524 – Baltic Dry Index dropped to 2,524 for June 26, down from 2,722 on June 19. Capesize and Panamax segments led the decline, reflecting weakening global bulk commodity demand. (Source: Baltic Exchange)
- Singapore port congestion eases significantly – Vessels waiting about two days in Singapore, down from seven‑day delays earlier in June. Container dwell times at three days for exports, two days for imports. (Source: Breakbulk News)
💰 Price Benchmarks
| Product | Market | Week 25 (Jun 17–24) | Week 26 (Jun 24–Jul 1) | WoW Change | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billet (3SP, 150mm) | FOB China | $470–476/t | $463–465/t | ▼ –$7–11/t | SMM |
| HRC (SS400, 3mm) | FOB China (Tianjin) | $492–501/t | $490–500/t | ▼ –$2/t | SMM |
| Indian SAE1006 HRC (Aug‑Sep) | CFR Vietnam | $540/t | $540/t | ▶ Unchanged | SMM |
| ASEAN HRC import price | CFR SE Asia | $550/t | $550/t | ▶ Unchanged | SMM |
| HRC (SAE1006/SS400) | CFR Indonesia | $605/t | $605/t | ▶ Unchanged | Industry data |
| Slab (HRC‑grade) | FOB Indonesia (Aug) | $495/t | $495/t | ▶ Unchanged | SMM |
| Billet (5SP, 150mm) | CFR Philippines | $435–440/t | $435–440/t | ▶ Unchanged | BigMint |
| BDI | Global | 2,722 (Jun 19) | 2,524 (Jun 26) | ▼ –198 pts (–7.3%) | Baltic Exchange |
🛡️ Policy Alert: India Gains Duty‑Free Access to Vietnam
Vietnam’s Trade Remedies Authority confirmed the termination of the anti‑dumping investigation on Indian HRC. This structural shift means Indian SAE1006 HRC can now enter Vietnam without AD duties, making it the most competitive non‑Chinese option at $540/t CFR. Meanwhile, China’s rebar apparent demand collapsed 14.5% WoW, confirming that the domestic demand floor is crumbling. The BDI crashed 7.3% to its lowest since late April, and Chinese billet export offers hit their lowest level since March. The market is now unambiguously in a demand‑driven downcycle.
💡 Actionable Advice
For Procurement Managers:
- Defer non‑urgent HRC and billet purchases. Chinese HRC FOB is likely to test $485/t and billet FOB could fall below $460/t. For Vietnam, domestic HRC from Formosa Ha Tinh at $550–570/t and Indian SAE1006 at $540/t CFR (now duty‑free) are the best options.
- Philippine billet buyers — hold bids at $435/t CFR or lower. Sellers are under pressure and may concede further.
For Sales Managers:
- Indian HRC exporters — seize the Vietnam opportunity aggressively. With AD duties terminated and Chinese material structurally excluded, Indian HRC at $540/t CFR is positioned to capture market share.
- Chinese mills — accelerate exports and accept lower prices to clear inventory before the domestic market deteriorates further.
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