Report Period:ย May 27 โ June 3, 2026
This is a limited preview. The full report includes complete price tables for China, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Turkey, Iran, Iraq, and Egypt, a full market structure deep dive by product category with anti-dumping analysis, a week-on-week deep dive comparing this period to May 20โ27, and specific quantified action items for procurement and sales teams.*
๐ Core Insights Preview (Excerpt from Full Report)
- Iran Extends Steel Export Ban Indefinitely โ Structural Supply Gap Now Permanentย โ The export suspension on 66 tariff codes including billets, slabs, HRC, CRC, and coated sheets will remain until further notice. With Mobarakeh Steel still in near-total shutdown and Khuzestan Steel 6โ12 months from restart, approximately 10 million tonnes of annual supply is structurally removed from global markets. (Sources: IRNA, Etemad)
- Saudi Hadeed Confirms July Rebar Cut of SAR 200/t โ Seasonal Demand Trough Priced Inย โ The market maker reduced July-rolling rebar prices by SAR 200/t ($53/t), resetting the Saudi benchmark. The Hajj and Eid Al Adha seasonal slowdown is now fully reflected in pricing, creating a tactical buying window before post-holiday demand rebounds. (Sources: Kallanish, MEsteel)
- Hormuz Transits Accelerate Past 40 Vessels Per Day โ War Risk Premiums Easeย โ Daily crossings reached 40โ45 vessels, the highest sustained level since the crisis began. War risk insurance premiums declined to 2โ5% of hull value from 3โ8%, improving the economics of Middle East steel imports. Diplomatic negotiations between the US and Iran are progressing. (Sources: Kpler, IRGC, Bernama)
- **China Billet FOB Inches Higher on Iron Ore Strength โ $114/dmt Provides Cost Floor** โ Chinese billet export offers rose modestly to $478โ482/t FOB, supported by firm iron ore and steady post-holiday restocking. HRC export prices followed a similar trajectory, with mill offers holding above $500/t. (Sources: SMM, Mysteel, BigMint)
- **Turkish Rebar Margin Squeeze Reaches Critical Level โ Scrap-to-Rebar Spread Below $180/t** โ The spread between imported scrap and rebar FOB compressed to $175โ180/t, well below the $200/t breakeven level. Turkish mills are absorbing unsustainable losses on every exported tonne, and production cuts are increasingly likely if the margin squeeze does not ease. (Sources: BigMint, SteelHome)
- Saudi AD Duty on Chinese Stainless Welded Pipe Takes Effect June 30 โ 27 Days Awayย โ Non-Chinese stainless pipe producers have a narrow window to capture Saudi desalination and petrochemical projects. Indian, Taiwanese, and Korean mills should be quoting now. (Sources: ZATCA, Arab Steel)
๐ฐ Price Snapshot (Selected Benchmarks)
| Product | Origin/Market | Price (This Week) | Weekly Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Billet (3SP, 150mm) | China FOB | $478โ482/t | โฒ Firming |
| HRC (SS400, 3mm) | China FOB | $512/t | โฒ Firming |
| Rebar (B500B) | Turkey FOB | $585โ590/t | โผ Softening |
| Scrap (HMS 80:20) | CFR Turkey | $400โ405/t | โธ๏ธ Stable |
| Rebar (July-rolling) | Saudi Hadeed | SAR 2,700/t ($720/t) | โผ SAR 200/t Cut |
| Rebar (June EXW) | UAE EMSTEEL | AED 2,821/t ($768/t) | โธ๏ธ Held |
| Iron Ore (62% Fe) | CFR China | $114/dmt | โฒ Rising |
| Baltic Dry Index | Global dry bulk | 2,892 | โผ Marginal Decline |
| Hormuz Daily Vessels | Transit throughput | 40โ45 | โฒ Accelerating |
| War Risk Premium | Hormuz insurance | 2โ5% of hull value | โผ Easing |
Full report includes: Complete FOB China table across eight product categories, Saudi three-tier rebar market analysis post-Hadeed cut, UAE benchmark-to-re-roller spread analysis, Turkey scrap-to-rebar margin compression tracking, Egypt safeguard duty-adjusted landed costs, India competitive positioning, and detailed week-on-week changes versus the prior period.
๐ข Port & Logistics Status Summary
| Port | Status | Steel Import Viability | Key Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jebel Ali (UAE) | ๐ด Paralyzed | Effectively Closed | Dwell time improving to 58 days; gradual clearing via Khor Fakkan rail |
| Dammam (Saudi) | ๐ด Restricted | Inaccessible | All cargo must divert via Jeddah with $65โ125/t inland trucking |
| Jeddah (Saudi) | ๐ก Operational | Primary Gateway | War risk premium declining; improved CFR competitiveness |
| Sohar (Oman) | ๐ข Operational | Viable Alternative | Low congestion; inland trucking to UAE adds $55โ75/t |
๐ก Actionable Advice Preview
For Procurement Managers (Buyers)
- โ Execute July-rolling Saudi domestic rebar orders at SAR 2,700/t โ the seasonal window is open.ย Hadeedโs cut is now confirmed, and tier-2 mills are matching. Contractors who had been withholding enquiries are now actively booking. The Hajj seasonal lull creates a tactical buying opportunity before demand rebounds post-Eid. Lock 4โ6 weeks of project requirements at current levels.
- โ Lock Q3 billet volumes at $478โ482/t FOB China โ the Iran extension and iron ore firmness support current levels.ย Iranโs export ban is now indefinite, confirming the structural billet supply gap. The easing war risk premium is improving CFR landed costs. This consolidation window offers a stable entry point before post-Hajj demand recovery.
For Export Sales Managers (Sellers)
- โ Aggressively target the Saudi stainless steel pipe market โ AD duties on Chinese material take effect in 27 days.ย Non-Chinese producers should be quoting desalination and petrochemical projects now with grades 304/304L, 316/316L, and duplex 2205. For Chinese exporters, redirect affected volumes to Iraq, Egypt, and other GCC markets immediately.
- โ Fill Iranโs permanent supply vacuum โ emphasize reliability and multi-origin sourcing.ย The indefinite extension means approximately 10 million tonnes of annual supply is structurally absent. Position your firm as a reliable, multi-product supplier to Iraq, Gulf re-rollers, and flat steel buyers with transparent war risk-adjusted pricing.
๐ What You Get in the Full Report
The complete 20+ page weekly report equips you for six-figure procurement and sales decisions with:
- Comprehensive Price Tables:ย 40+ price points across 8 product categories and 6 regional markets, all with source citations.
- Market Structure Deep Dive (By Product Category):ย Detailed analysis of billet, rebar, HRC, CRC, HDG, carbon steel pipe, stainless steel, and CRGO โ covering market size, growth drivers, local industry competitiveness, import dependency, product specifications, downstream end-use, anti-dumping context, and competitive positioning.
- Week-on-Week Deep Dive:ย A dedicated section comparing this weekโs data against May 20โ27 across seven dimensions โ prices, policy, currencies, logistics, sentiment, new data, and overall assessment โ with a forward price forecast and three supporting arguments.
- Trade Remedies Analysis:ย Full anti-dumping summary table, structural dumping analysis, and specific guidance on the June 30 Saudi AD deadline, Iranโs indefinite export ban implications, and GCC safeguard investigation status.
- Dual-Perspective Action Items:ย Separate, prioritized advice for procurement teams and export sales teams with specific price triggers, routing recommendations, compliance deadline tracking, and market entry strategies.
- Critical Deadlines Countdown:ย Tracking SASO 2938 old-cert cutoff (89 days), Saudi AD effective date (27 days), Egypt safeguard Year 1โ2 transition, and CBAM Q2 announcement.
Disclaimer: This free sample contains excerpts from the June 3, 2026, Middle East Steel Weekly Report compiled by Amy SteelInsights. Data is sourced from Mysteel, SMM, BigMint, Kallanish, MEsteel, Baltic Exchange, Kpler, project44, IRNA, ZATCA, SASO, and official government announcements. Geopolitical conditions, freight rates, war risk premiums, and port accessibility are subject to rapid change. This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute trading or investment advice.
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