Report Period: May 27 – June 3, 2026
📌 Sample Insight: Iran Ban Extended, Indian HRC Rebounds, Currencies Stabilize
The Events: Iran’s Ministry of Industry extended the export ban on 66 steel tariff codes to June 30, 2026, removing the immediate risk of slab supply restoration. Simultaneously, Indian SAE1006 HRC offers to Vietnam rebounded sharply from a late‑May trough, recovering $20–30/t** to **$595–605/t CFR as scrap costs firmed and the India‑Oman Free Trade Agreement began diverting some tonnage toward the Middle East.
The Week‑on‑Week Impact: Chinese HRC FOB held steady at $505–508/t** ahead of the Dragon Boat Festival, while the Indonesian rupiah staged its strongest weekly recovery in over a month, strengthening **2.3%** to **17,400/USD** and providing the first genuine import cost relief since late April. The Philippine billet deadlock, now in its sixth week, remained frozen with offers at **$515–520/t CFR and buyer bids stuck at $505/t.
Why This Matters for Your Decisions:
If you are a Procurement Manager, the Indian HRC recovery from an oversold trough and the India‑Oman FTA’s early diversion effects suggest that the window to secure competitively‑priced non‑Chinese HRC for Vietnam is narrowing. If you are a Sales Manager, the rupiah’s stabilization may temporarily reopen a narrow window for billet offers into Indonesia, but the structural dollar strength behind the recent crisis means this may not last.
💰 Sample Price Benchmarks (Week 22 vs. Week 21)
| Product | Market | Week 21 Price | Week 22 Price | WoW Change | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HRC (Q235B, 3.0mm) | FOB China (Tianjin) | $502/t | $508/t | +$6/t | Pre‑holiday mill support |
| Indian HRC (SAE1006) | CFR Vietnam | $573–575/t (May 25) | $595–605/t | +$20–30/t | Scrap recovery, FTA diversion |
| Billet (3SP, imported) | CFR Philippines | $515/t | $515/t | Unchanged | FX & rainy season deadlock |
| BDI | Global | 2,964 (May 21) | 3,018 (Jun 1) | +54 points | Capesize stabilization |
| IDR | Indonesia | 17,800 (May 26) | 17,400 (Jun 2) | Strengthened 2.3% | Bank Indonesia intervention |
Source: Mysteel, SMM, Kallanish, SteelOrbis, BigMint, Baltic Exchange, BI
🛡️ Sample Policy Alert: India‑Oman FTA Takes Effect, Diverting Tonnage
The India‑Oman Free Trade Agreement took effect on June 1, 2026, providing Indian steel exporters with duty‑free access to the Omani market. Early indications suggest this is already redirecting some Indian HRC tonnage away from ASEAN. With Indian mills able to serve Middle East buyers without tariff friction, the supply available for Vietnam and other Southeast Asian markets may tighten incrementally in the coming weeks. Vietnamese buyers who rely on Indian HRC as an alternative to Chinese wide‑width material should factor this diversion risk into their procurement timelines.
💡 Sample Actionable Advice
For Procurement Managers:
- Secure Indian HRC at $595–605/t CFR Vietnam for July shipment before the Dragon Boat Festival thins regional availability. The India‑Oman FTA is already diverting some tonnage, and the holiday will temporarily reduce trading. This is a competitive non‑Chinese option that may not be available at these levels by late June.
For Sales Managers:
- Quote Chinese HRC at $505–515/t FOB before the Dragon Boat Festival (June 5–7). The holiday will thin trading, but mills that lock in volumes early will avoid the lull. Post‑holiday, a modest demand bump may support prices toward the upper end of the range.
📥 Want the Full Week 22 Report with WoW Comparison Data?
The complete Southeast Asia Steel Weekly Report includes full CFR price tables for all five ASEAN markets, detailed trade‑remedy tracking, an in‑depth currency impact model, China inventory and production data, a next‑week price forecast, and separate “Buy/Sell/Hold” sections for procurement and sales managers — all with week‑on‑week comparison data so you can see exactly how fast each market is moving.
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📧 Questions or custom data requests? Contact Amy SteelInsights at amy@amyinsights.com