Report Period: June 10 – 17, 2026 |
📌 Sample Insight: Indonesia HRC Spikes on Slab Shortage as Iran Supply Gap Hits Flat Steel
The Events: Indonesia’s HRC import price surged to $605/t CFR** for July shipment SAE1006/SS400, with SPHC (2mm) offers reaching **$640–670/t CFR—a $35–40/t weekly increase**. The spike is a direct transmission of Iran’s slab export ban, which has idled approximately **10 million tonnes/year** of capacity. Indonesian rerollers, heavily reliant on Iranian slab, now face acute shortages. Simultaneously, Vietnam’s domestic HRC market fractured, with Formosa Ha Tinh slashing offers to **$550–570/t while Hoa Phat held firm at $604–606/t**, creating an unusual **$50/t spread between the two mills.
The Week‑on‑Week Impact: Chinese HRC FOB stabilized with a marginal uptick to $497–506/t, but the real action was in Southeast Asia. The BDI collapsed to 2,729, down 27.3% in a single week and extinguishing any freight‑cost tailwind. Thailand initiated a sunset review of anti‑dumping duties on HRC imports from 14 countries, and Malaysia launched a new anti‑dumping investigation on wire rod from China, Indonesia, and Vietnam. China’s steel exports surged to 10.34 million tonnes in May (+8.9% MoM) as mills aggressively pushed volumes overseas to offset weak domestic demand and rising inventories.
Why This Matters for Your Decisions:
If you are a Procurement Manager sourcing HRC for Indonesia, the slab shortage is structural and prices are likely to rise further. Securing July allocations now at $605/t CFR is urgent. If you are a Sales Manager with slab to export, the Indonesian and Vietnamese markets are offering the highest margins since the initial Iran supply shock in April.
💰 Sample Price Benchmarks (Week 24 vs. Week 23)
| Product | Market | Week 23 Price | Week 24 Price | WoW Change | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HRC (SAE1006, 3mm) | CFR Indonesia (Jul) | $565–570/t | $605/t | +$35–40/t | Slab shortage from Iran supply loss |
| HRC (Formosa Ha Tinh) | Vietnam domestic (Jul–Aug) | $579–589/t | $550–570/t | –$19–29/t | Aggressive price cut for market share |
| HRC (SS400, 3mm) | FOB China (Tianjin) | $496–504/t | $497–506/t | +$1–2/t | Stable; mill reluctance to discount |
| Billet (5SP) | CFR Philippines (deals) | $495–500/t | $498–500/t | Stable | Indian billet at $492/t adding competition |
| BDI | Global | 2,818 (Jun 9) | 2,729 (Jun 12) | –89 pts (–3.2%) | Capesize earnings falling |
| China Steel Exports | May 2026 | 9.5 Mt (Apr) | 10.34 Mt | +8.9% MoM | Mills pushing exports amid weak domestic demand |
Source: SMM, Mysteel, SteelOrbis, SteelHome, Baltic Exchange, Industry Data
🛡️ Sample Policy Alert: Thailand HRC Sunset Review & Malaysia Wire Rod AD Probe
Thailand’s Department of Foreign Trade initiated a sunset review of anti‑dumping duties on HRC imports from 14 countries, including Japan, South Korea, India, and Indonesia. Existing AD rates remain in force for up to one year during the review. Meanwhile, Malaysia launched a new anti‑dumping investigation on steel wire rods from China, Indonesia, and Vietnam on June 5, with provisional duties possible within 120 days. These actions signal that ASEAN’s trade remedy architecture is expanding from flat steel into long products.
💡 Sample Actionable Advice
For Procurement Managers:
- Indonesian HRC buyers — secure July allocations immediately at or near $605/t CFR. The slab shortage is structural and will not ease before Iran’s export ban is resolved. Japanese and Korean HRC may offer alternatives, but prices are unlikely to be lower.
- **Vietnamese HRC buyers — capitalise on Formosa Ha Tinh’s aggressive pricing at $550–570/t.** This is the lowest domestic offer available and $100–120/t cheaper than Chinese HRC after duties. Negotiate bulk discounts.
For Sales Managers:
- Slab exporters — prioritise shipments to Indonesia. Chinese slab FOB at $485/t offers strong margins, and Indonesian rerollers face acute shortages. The window will remain open as long as Iran is offline.
- **HRC exporters to Thailand — continue quoting at $535–545/t CFR.** Chinese HRC remains $220–230/t below Thai domestic mills, and the sunset review will not change this advantage for at least 6–12 months.
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📧 Questions? Custom reports? Contact Amy SteelInsights at amy@amyinsights.com