Report Date: May 21, 2026 | Coverage: South Korea & Japan
Week-on-Week Comparison Included: May 6–13 vs. May 13–20
This free sample offers a curated look at this week’s most market‑moving events and data. Subscribers receive the full report, including complete price tables for all eight steel products, detailed import viability analysis, policy tracking, a comprehensive week‑on‑week deep dive, and the new market structure section – everything you need to act before the next shift.
📌 Sample Core Insights (Excerpt)
📌 China HRC Export Prices Retreat to $504–508/t FOB; Billet Breaks Below $480/t — ▼
Chinese SS400 HRC fell to $504–508/t FOB by May 19, down $2–6/t week‑on‑week, as a northern mill quoting above $510/t received “almost no transactions.” Billet tumbled $5–7/t to $476–478/t FOB — the first break below the $480/t floor since late April. Weak domestic demand and softer iron ore are sapping the post‑holiday rally. [SMM, Mysteel]
📌 Korean Scrap Prices Surge for Second Consecutive Week; Mills Turn to Imported Billet — ▲
Major EAF mills raised scrap purchase prices by KRW 15,000–20,000/t ($10–13/t) this week. With domestic scrap structurally tight and expensive, mills are now actively importing billet to substitute for self‑produced crude steel. This dual‑track strategy signals a profound shift in Korea’s raw material procurement ahead of POSCO’s 2.5 million tpy EAF commissioning in June. [SMM]
📌 KRW Breaks Above 1,500 – Closes at 1,508.70 Overnight; JPY Nears 159 — ▼
The won tumbled to 1,508.70 on May 20, its weakest since early April, as surging US Treasury yields (30‑year near 5.2%) powered the dollar higher. The yen weakened to 158.96, approaching the level that triggered Japan’s April 30 intervention. Combined, the two currencies have added $15–25/t to landed import costs since early May. [Yonhap Infomax, MUFG]
📌 Iran Formalises Strait of Hormuz Control; First VLCCs Transit Under New Rules — ⚠️
Iran’s Supreme National Security Council established the Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) on May 18, declaring that navigation is “contingent upon full coordination” with Iranian authorities. Two Chinese VLCCs transited the strait on May 19 – the first large commercial crossings in weeks – but followed Iranian‑prescribed routes and did not call at Iranian ports. The BDI retreated to 3,005 (–4.6% from its May 15 peak) but remains up +48% since February. [Khaleej Times, Baltic Exchange]
📌 Tokyo Steel Holds June Prices Flat – Ends Three‑Month Hiking Cycle — ▶
Tokyo Steel maintained May production prices for June delivery: HRC at JPY 98,000/t (~$617/t) , rebar at JPY 90,000/t, H‑beam at JPY 113,000/t. The decision to hold after three consecutive monthly increases signals that demand may be reaching a ceiling. [SMM]
💰 Sample Price & Change Comparison (Partial View)
| Product | Market | This Week (May 19–20) | WoW Change (vs May 13) | Primary Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HRC (SS400) | China FOB | $504–508/t ▼ | –$2–6/t | Buyer resistance, softer iron ore |
| Billet (150mm) | China FOB | $476–478/t ▼ | –$5–7/t | Post‑holiday demand exhaustion |
| Scrap purchase | South Korea | +KRW 15,000–20,000/t ▲ | Second consecutive weekly hike | Structural scrap shortage, POSCO EAF imminent |
| HRC (Tokyo Steel) | Japan | JPY 98,000/t ▶ | Unchanged (June delivery) | Ends three‑month hiking cycle |
| KRW/USD | Seoul FX | 1,508.70 ▼ | –18.1 won (–1.2%) | US bond yields, dollar strength |
| BDI | Global | 3,005 ▼ | –146 pts from May 15 peak (–4.6%) | Capesize resistance, but still +48% since Feb |
Subscribers receive complete tables for all eight products across China, Korea, and Japan, with precise weekly, monthly, and yearly changes.
🛡️ Sample Geopolitical & Supply Chain Update (Excerpt)
Korea’s Scrap Crisis Reshapes Raw Material Procurement
Korean mills have raised scrap purchase prices for the second consecutive week, pushing cumulative increases to approximately KRW 25,000–35,000/t ($17–24/t) since early May. The domestic scrap market is now characterised as “high‑price, low‑volume.” In response, mills are dual‑tracking: expanding overseas scrap imports while simultaneously importing billet to substitute for self‑produced crude steel. This structural shift is a direct consequence of Korea’s expanding EAF capacity – POSCO’s 2.5 million tpy Gwangyang EAF is now less than two weeks from commissioning – and it creates a sustained demand channel for billet exporters.
Hormuz Institutionalisation: A Permanent Cost Layer
Iran’s establishment of the Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) on May 18 marks the institutionalisation of strait control. The authority has issued regulations requiring “full coordination” for navigation and has warned that “passage without permission will be considered illegal.” The US has redirected 88 commercial vessels since April 13 and disabled four others. While two Chinese VLCCs successfully transited on May 19, the overall strait throughput remains 95 % below pre‑conflict levels. This is no longer a temporary disruption – it is a structural redefinition of shipping costs that will persist long after any ceasefire.
The Approaching June 22 HRC AD Deadline
Korea’s temporary anti‑dumping duties on Chinese and Japanese HRC expire on June 22, 2026 – only 33 days away. The final five‑year definitive duty implementation (or further extension) will set the medium‑term import framework for Korea’s most important flat steel product. Procurement managers should prepare for potential changes to the price undertaking minimum price levels or the list of approved exporters.
💡 Sample Actionable Advice (Preview)
| For Procurement Managers | For Export Sales Managers |
|---|---|
| ✅ Begin layering in HRC and billet purchases at current softened levels. The $5–10/t discount from early‑May peaks is real, but the cost floor (iron ore, BDI, Korean billet demand) limits further downside. | ✅ Accept modest price concessions to clear volumes, but hold HRC quotes above $500/t FOB. The soft correction is not a collapse; mills with full order books have no incentive to discount deeply. |
| ⚠️ Evaluate imported billet as a strategic procurement alternative – especially for Korean operations. Mills are already dual‑tracking, and POSCO’s EAF will intensify this demand channel. | ⚠️ Aggressively target Korean billet import demand. This is the most promising near‑term growth channel in Northeast Asia – a structural shift, not a short‑term arbitrage. |
The full report contains six tailored action items for each audience, with specific rationales, target markets, and implementation timelines.
📥 Get the Full Report
This free sample is only a fraction of the intelligence delivered each week. Subscribers to the Northeast Asia Steel Weekly Report receive:
- 8 product price tables (billet, rebar, HRC, CRC, HDG, carbon steel pipe, stainless steel, CRGO) with FOB, domestic, and import parity data for China, Korea, and Japan.
- Week‑on‑week and month‑on‑month comparisons to track market direction with precision.
- Import viability assessments with landed cost calculations under Korea’s price undertaking mechanism vs. full AD duties – now including the new alloy steel wire rod investigation and coated CRC provisional duties.
- Comprehensive policy tracker: Korea HRC AD duties (with approved exporter list, June 22 deadline), alloy steel wire rod AD probe, coated CRC preliminary duties, Japan cold‑rolled stainless steel & HDG investigations, anti‑circumvention legislation status, CBAM/IAA compliance.
- Supply chain dynamics: POSCO Gwangyang EAF commissioning (June 2026, two weeks away), Korean scrap inventory trends, Korea’s structural shift toward billet imports, BDI freight trajectory, Hormuz institutionalisation, Iran export ban status.
- Currency and FX risk analysis: USD/KRW and USD/JPY with quantified impact on import costs, intervention risk tracking, and bond yield transmission.
- New: Market structure section – by‑product market size, local industry competitiveness, import dependency, end‑use demand mapping, and competitive positioning strategy.
- Forward‑looking price forecast for the coming week with three supporting arguments and one key downside risk.
- Full week‑on‑week deep dive analysis comparing the current reporting week to the prior week across seven dimensions: price trends, policy changes, exchange rates, logistics, sentiment, new significant data, and overall trajectory.
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Contact Amy directly at amy@amyinsights.com