Report Period: May 6 – May 13, 2026
Analyst: Amy SteelInsights (amyinsights.com)
📌 Core Insights Snapshot (Full Version Contains 8–10 Detailed Bulletins)
- HRC Rally Reaches an Elevated Plateau – After 16 consecutive weekly increases, Nucor’s HRC CSP held at $1,070/st and Nucor Plate Group explicitly left all plate prices flat — the first tactical pause since the rally began. The market is consolidating, not reversing, but the question is whether this is a breather or a top.
- US Capacity Utilisation Surges to 81.4% – AISI reported raw steel production of 1,880,000 st for the week ending May 9, the highest weekly utilisation since at least July 2022. YTD production is up 6.3% YoY, confirming that demand — not just supply tightness — is absorbing record output.
- Chinese OCTG Duties Extended for Five Years; CBP Rules Six Firms Evaded Duties – The USITC made a final affirmative injury determination on May 6, extending Chinese OCTG duties indefinitely after finding revocation would allow dumping at margins up to 99.14%. On May 8, CBP ruled six companies evaded existing duties on Chinese OCTG and line pipe — a powerful enforcement signal under the new traceability framework.
- Deputy USTR Proposes “Unified Tariff Borders” for North American Steel – In a May 12 speech, Deputy USTR Goettman called for an updated USMCA that would require Canada and Mexico to align their external steel tariffs with US Section 232. This qualitative escalation goes beyond “melt and pour” origin requirements and would fundamentally restructure cross-border trade if adopted.
- Mexico Imposes 5–35% Tariffs on 185 Chinese Products; Manzanillo Port Disruption Begins – Mexico’s new tariff decree, signed three days after USTR Greer’s visit, targets steel, aluminum, and other goods from non-FTA countries. Simultaneously, a customs disruption at Manzanillo — Mexico’s busiest Pacific gateway — is delaying new customs appointments, compounding delivery risk.
💡 Sample Actionable Advice
For Procurement Managers:
✅ Lock Q2 flat-rolled requirements now — Nucor’s pause is a negotiation window, not a reason to wait. HRC at $1,070/st and capacity utilisation at 81.4% mean demand is absorbing output. The absence of a fresh HRC increase and Nucor’s flat plate pricing create an opening that didn’t exist two weeks ago. Use it to secure May–June delivery at current levels.
For Export Sales Managers:
⚠️ Audit USMCA supply chains before the May 25 bilateral round. Deputy USTR Goettman’s “unified tariff borders” proposal and “melt and pour” requirements mean origin qualification is about to get much stricter. Identify any third-country steel in your supply chains and transition toward compliant sourcing now — before the grandfathering window closes.
Unlock the Full Report to Access:
- Complete pricing tables for HRC, CRC, HDG, Plate, Rebar, Pipe, and Billet across the US, Canada, and Mexico
- In-depth analysis of Nucor’s tactical pricing pause and what it signals for the next 30 days
- Full breakdown of the USITC Chinese OCTG duty extension, CBP evasion ruling, and enforcement implications
- Detailed assessment of Mexico’s new 5–35% tariffs and the Manzanillo port customs disruption
- Preparation guide for the May 25 USMCA bilateral round, including “unified tariff borders” scenario analysis
- Dedicated week-on-week comparison of all key metrics against the prior April 29–May 6 period
- Exclusive “Buy/Sell/Hold” recommendations for 8 product categories
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📧 Questions or Custom Analysis? Contact Amy directly: amy@amyinsights.com