Report Period: April 23 – 29, 2026 (Week 17) | Analyst: Amy SteelInsights
📌 Sample Insight: Iran Formalises Export Ban — Supply Deficit Becomes Concrete
The Event: Iran’s government officially suspended steel plate and slab exports until 30 May 2026, idling approximately 10 million tonnes per year of capacity. This transforms the previously estimated 13‑15 Mtpa capacity loss into a firm, near‑term semi‑finished supply vacuum for Southeast Asia.
The Week‑on‑Week Impact: The announcement removed residual uncertainty that had floated in the market during Week 16. Chinese HRC FOB prices responded by jumping 12/tweek‑on‑week∗∗to∗∗12/tweek‑on‑week∗∗to∗∗500/t FOB — the first time the $500 psychological barrier has been reached in 2026 and the largest single‑week increase since the initial post‑Iran surge.
Why This Matters for Your Decisions:
If you are a Procurement Manager, the supply‑side door is now firmly closed through end‑May. Waiting for a price correction on slab or billet carries a high probability of missing the current window entirely.
If you are a Sales Manager, this is your clearest signal yet to prioritise slab exports and lift HRC offers in line with the rising Chinese domestic mill price base.
💰 Sample Price Benchmarks (Week 17 vs. Week 16)
| Product | Market | Week 16 Price | Week 17 Price | WoW Change | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HRC (SS400) | FOB China (Tianjin) | $488/t | $500/t | +$12/t | Mill list price hikes + Iran export ban |
| HRC | CFR Thailand | $510/t | $530/t | +$20/t | Freight costs + domestic price rises |
| Billet (5SP) | CFR Philippines | $480–490/t | $486–492/t | Lower bound +$6/t | Bid‑ask spread narrowing |
| BDI | Global | 2,640 | 2,677 | +37 points | Capesize demand surge |
Source: Mysteel, SMM, Baltic Exchange, Industry Data
🚢 Sample Logistics Alert: Port Congestion Diverges Sharply
Southeast Asia’s port congestion is no longer a uniform crisis. Jakarta still suffers from 321 hours (13.4 days) of waiting time, making it the worst bottleneck in the region. Manila, however, has transformed — container vessel waiting times have collapsed to less than 2 days (averaging only 0.7 days), a dramatic improvement from the 8.4 days recorded in prior weeks. Philippine importers now have a distinct logistics advantage over Indonesian buyers.
💡 Sample Actionable Advice
For Procurement Managers:
- Accelerate Q2 slab bookings immediately. Iran’s export ban runs to 30 May and slab supply is the most acutely affected segment. Current CFR Southeast Asia slab at $500–540/t still offers a window; post‑holiday, Chinese mills will price June‑shipment cargoes off a higher domestic base.
For Sales Managers:
- Lift HRC export offers in line with Baosteel’s and Ansteel’s RMB 100/t May increases. Chinese domestic mill list prices set the floor for export negotiations. Quotes can be confidently raised to the $500–510/t FOB range, with the Iran supply vacuum and sustained freight strength providing downward price rigidity.
Week‑on‑Week Deep Dive Included: The full report compares every major price point, policy change and logistics metric between Week 16 and Week 17, quantifying the exact shifts that matter for your next order.
📥 Want the Full Week 17 Report?
This sample is only the opening section. The complete Southeast Asia Steel Weekly Report includes full CFR price tables across all five ASEAN markets, detailed trade remedy tracking, currency impact models, China inventory and production data, a next‑week price forecast, and separate “Buy/Sell/Hold” sections for procurement and sales managers.
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Contact Amy SteelInsights at amy@amyinsights.com