Report Period: April 15 – April 22, 2026
Analyst: Amy SteelInsights (amyinsights.com)
This is a limited preview. The full report contains comprehensive price tables for China, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Turkey, Iran, Iraq, and Egypt, complete import viability assessments, detailed policy compliance updates, and specific week-on-week deep dive analysis.
📌 Core Insights Preview (Excerpt from Full Report)
- Hormuz Transit Collapses Again – Traffic plunged from ~20 vessels/day on April 18 to just 2 vessels by April 21 after Iran reimposed closure. Gulf east coast ports remain effectively inaccessible. (Source: Clarksons Research)
- War Risk Premiums Stabilize at Elevated Levels – Insurance costs for Hormuz transit currently assessed at ~3% of hull value, down from extreme peaks but still 12–15x higher than normal 0.2% levels. (Source: Lloyd’s List, Industry Underwriters)
- Iran Capacity Loss Confirmed at ~14 Million tpy – Damage to Mobarakeh Steel and Khuzestan Steel has removed approximately 14 Mt of crude steel capacity. Repair timeline estimated at 6–12 months minimum, creating a sustained regional supply vacuum. (Source: SMM, Morgan Stanley)
- Dry Bulk Freight Surges to Four-Month High – The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) climbed to 2,640 points on April 21, a +17.3% increase week-on-week, adding significant cost pressure to all seaborne steel shipments. (Source: Baltic Exchange)
- Worldsteel Downgrades MENA 2026 Demand – Forecast slashed to 76.6 Mt, down 4.5% YoY, driven by regional conflict disruption. A rebound of 7.7% is expected in 2027. (Source: World Steel Association)
💰 Price Snapshot (Selected Benchmarks)
| Product | Origin/Market | Price (This Week) | WoW Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Billet (3SP, 150mm) | China FOB | $465–470/t | ⏸️ Stable |
| HRC (SAE1006, 2mm) | China FOB | $488/t | ▲ Rising |
| Rebar (B500B) | Turkey FOB | $590–600/t | ▼ Easing |
| Scrap (HMS 80:20) | CFR Turkey | $401–403/t | ▲ Firm |
| Rebar (Official) | Saudi Arabia (Hadeed) | SAR 2,560/t ($683/t) | ⏸️ Stable |
| Rebar (Market Transaction) | UAE (Emirates Steel) | ~AED 2,673/t ($728/t) | ⏸️ Stable |
Full report includes: Complete FOB China table (billet, rebar, HRC, CRC, HDG, pipe), Saudi domestic vs. import parity analysis, UAE billet shortage assessment, Egypt safeguard duty impact calculation, and Turkey export competitiveness matrix.
🚢 Port & Logistics Status Summary
| Port | Status | Steel Import Viability | Key Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jebel Ali (UAE) | 🔴 Restricted | Effectively Closed | Inbound vessel access blocked by Hormuz closure |
| Dammam (Saudi) | 🔴 Restricted | Inaccessible | All cargo must divert via Jeddah |
| Jeddah (Saudi) | 🟡 Operational | Primary Gateway | Operational but facing congestion and $65–125/t inland trucking premium to eastern zones |
| Sohar (Oman) | 🟢 Operational | Viable Alternative | Inland trucking to UAE adds $55–75/t; lower congestion than Fujairah |
| Khor Fakkan/Fujairah | 🟡 Operational | Congested | Diverted cargo creating waiting times |
💡 Actionable Advice Preview
For Procurement Managers (Buyers)
- ⏳ Do NOT place new orders to Dammam/Jebel Ali. Ports are effectively inaccessible. Shipments will face indefinite delays or force majeure. (Full report provides specific trigger points for when to re-enter these routes).
- ✅ Consider CFR Jeddah or CFR Sohar for critical requirements. Alternative ports are operational but cost premiums apply. Accept additional $65–125/t for Jeddah inland trucking or $55–75/t for Sohar-to-UAE trucking. (Full report includes detailed landed cost comparison tables).
For Export Sales Managers (Sellers)
- ✅ Offer CFR Jeddah / Khor Fakkan / Fujairah with transparent war risk surcharge line items. Buyers are receptive to itemized pricing that allows them to adjust if premiums drop. (Full report outlines negotiation best practices).
- 👀 Fill Iran’s Supply Gap. Iranian capacity loss (~14 Mt) creates a sustained regional vacuum in Iraq and Gulf re-rolling markets. Chinese and Turkish suppliers have a 6–12 month window to capture market share with reliable, premium-priced offers.
📈 What You Get in the Full Report
The complete 20+ page weekly report provides the granular data and context required for six-figure procurement and sales decisions:
- Comprehensive Price Tables: 30+ individual price points across 8 product categories and 6 regional markets, all with source citations.
- Import Viability Assessment: Quantitative landed cost analysis comparing Chinese, Turkish, and Indian origins against Saudi and UAE domestic benchmarks.
- Policy & Compliance Tracker: Updates on Egypt safeguard duties (Year 1 rates now active), SASO 2938 deadlines, and SABER digital trust score requirements.
- Geopolitical Risk Quantification: Week-on-week Hormuz traffic models, war risk premium tracking, and alternative routing cost calculators.
- Dual-Perspective Action Items: Separate, prioritized advice for procurement teams and export sales teams with specific price triggers.
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Contact: amy@amyinsights.com | amyinsights.com