Report Period: April 15–22, 2026
Coverage: Russia | Ukraine | Kazakhstan
📌 1. Core Insights (Sample Excerpts)
📌 Russia Billet Export Prices Hold Steady Amid Turkish Caution — Russian FOB Black Sea billet offers maintained levels from early April, while CFR Turkey quotes were considered workable but generated no fresh deals. ⏸️ (Source: BigMint)
📌 EU Steel Safeguard Deal Confirmed — EU reached a preliminary agreement to cut duty-free quotas by 47% and double out-of-quota tariffs to 50% , effective July 1, 2026. The deal includes a commitment to phase out Russian steel imports by September 2028. (Source: EU Commission)
📌 Russia Advances Import Consumption Tax Legislation — Ministry of Finance has drafted a bill to impose a consumption tax on imported liquid steel products, aligning with the domestic system. Full analysis of landed cost impact is reserved for subscribers. (Source: Russian Ministry of Finance)
📌 Black Sea Shipping Risks Remain Critical — Novorossiysk port restrictions persist following recent drone attacks, with two key berths offline. War risk insurance premiums continue to trade at elevated levels. (Source: Reuters, Marine Insight)
💰 2. Price & Cost Analysis (Sample Structure — Data Reserved)
🇷🇺 Russia – Export Prices (FOB Black Sea)
| Product | Price (FOB Black Sea) | Trend | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Billet (3SP, 150mm) | [Subscriber Access Only] | ⏸️ | SteelHome |
| Slab | [Subscriber Access Only] | ⏸️ | Mysteel / BigMint |
| HRC (S235JR, 2–4mm) | [Subscriber Access Only] | ▼ | Industry sources |
Competitiveness Assessment – Russia vs. China vs. Turkey
| Origin | Product | FOB Estimate | Key Advantage | Key Barrier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia | Billet | [Subscriber Access] | Discount to Chinese offers | Payment friction, war risk |
| China | Billet | [Subscriber Access] | Stable supply, fast delivery | Higher price point |
| Turkey | Billet | [Subscriber Access] | Local supply, no logistics risk | Uncompetitive vs. imports |
🔒 Full price tables including CFR Turkey/India/China spreads, Ukrainian distressed pricing, and Qarmet export benchmarks are available in the complete report.
🛡️ 3. Geopolitical & Logistics Risk (Sample Excerpts)
EU Sanctions – Russian Steel Phase-Out Timeline
- EU steel safeguard measures expire June 30, 2026. New framework takes effect July 1, 2026.
- Russian steel phase-out: Approximately 3.7 million tonnes of slab exports to be eliminated by September 2028.
- 🔒 Detailed impact analysis on specific Russian mills and alternative market redirection strategies is reserved for subscribers.
Black Sea Shipping Risk Rating
| Zone | Risk Level | Key Risks |
|---|---|---|
| Eastern Black Sea / Azov Sea | 🔴 Critical | Drone strikes, port restrictions |
| Novorossiysk port area | 🔴 Critical | Berth damage, loading delays |
| Bosphorus Strait entrance | 🟡 Medium | Drifting mine threats |
⚖️ 5. Policy & Compliance Update (Sample Excerpts)
| Measure | Status | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| EU Quota Cut | Confirmed | 47% reduction to 18.3 million tonnes |
| Out-of-Quota Tariff | Confirmed | Doubled from 25% → 50% |
| Russia Import Consumption Tax | Bill drafted | 2.7% of monthly slab price |
| SPOT System (Pre-Delivery Certification) | Pilot begins May 1 | Pre-declaration and pre-payment required |
🔒 Full compliance table with effective dates, source citations, and actionable guidance on payment channel pre-verification is reserved for subscribers.
💡 6. Actionable Advice (Sample Framework)
For Procurement Managers (Buyers)
- ✅ Secure / ⏳ Wait / 👀 Monitor — Specific price targets and timing recommendations are reserved for subscribers.
- ⚠️ Verify payment channels — 27 Chinese banks now on SPFS; RMB/rouble direct settlement offers fee savings vs. USD wire. Pre-verification requirement is critical.
For Export Sales Managers (Sellers)
- ✅ Quote aggressively / ⏳ Pause quotes / 👀 Adjust terms — Target market prioritization and price guidance are reserved for subscribers.
- ⏳ Avoid EU marketing — From July 1, 50% out-of-quota tariff applies. Redirect volumes to Asia/ME.
🌍 7. Major Events This Week (Sample Headlines)
- EU Steel Safeguard Deal (April 13, 2026) — Duty-free quotas cut 47%; Russian steel phase-out by 2028.
- Novorossiysk Port Restrictions (Ongoing) — Two key berths remain offline following drone attacks.
- Russia March Rail Export Data — Billet exports up 12% month-on-month.
- Ukraine CBAM Impact Worsens — Q1 export orders lost exceeded 1.1 million tonnes.
🔒 Full event details with source links, impact assessment, and dedicated procurement/sales advice are available in the subscriber version.
Why Subscribe to the Full Report?
This free sample provides a structural overview of the CIS Steel Weekly Report. The complete report delivers the quantitative data and specific, dollar-denominated guidance you need to make confident procurement and sales decisions.
Subscribers receive:
- Real-time FOB/CFR prices for billet, slab, HRC, rebar, and pig iron across all CIS origins.
- Detailed competitiveness spreadsheets comparing Russia, China, Turkey, and Ukraine on a delivered-cost basis.
- War risk insurance premium updates and their impact on landed CFR calculations.
- Full legislative tracking including Russia’s import consumption tax and SPOT system implementation timelines.
- Exclusive “Buy/Wait/Sell” calls with price targets and timing recommendations.
Disclaimer: This sample is for illustrative purposes only. The full report compiles data from authoritative sources including SteelHome, Mysteel, BigMint, Kallanish, European Commission, Russian Ministry of Finance, GMK Center, and Baltic Exchange. All price estimates, forecasts, and actionable advice are exclusive to the paid subscription.
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