Report Period: April 8 – 15, 2026

📌 3 Core Insights

📌 Strait of Hormuz gradually reopens – 20+ vessels transit in 24 hours, but traffic remains 93% below normal – On April 14, over 20 commercial vessels passed through the Strait, the first significant resumption since the blockade began. However, only 279 vessels transited between February 28 and April 12, compared to a normal daily average of ~130. [8†L5-L6][7†L13-L14]
📌 War risk insurance premiums surge to 1-7.5% of vessel value – freight costs up 11-12x – For a $100 million tanker, single-voyage insurance now ranges from $2-9 million (vs $250,000 pre-conflict). Container rates from China to the Gulf have risen to $6,500-7,000 per container. [12†L11-L15][13†L2-L4]
📌 Iran‘s 13-15 million tpy steel capacity loss creates regional supply vacuum – Morgan Stanley estimates war damage has impaired 24-27% of Iran’s total crude steel capacity. Mobarakeh Steel (9-10 million tpy) and Khuzestan Steel (4-5 million tpy) are offline, forcing Gulf buyers to seek alternatives. [9†L12-L14]

💡 What You Get in the Full Report

For Procurement Managers (Buyers)

CFR Jeddah, Khor Fakkan and Sohar price benchmarks with war risk and inland trucking costs
Iran capacity loss impact on regional billet/HRC availability
Jebel Ali and Dammam port status – alternative routing options
Saudi Hadeed and UAE Emirates Steel price dynamics
Iraq 30% rebar tariff and Egypt safeguard duty tracking

For Export Sales Managers (Sellers)

Competitive FOB China vs Turkey vs India export offers
GCC trade remedy heat map (SABER updates, anti-dumping cases)
2030 Vision infrastructure demand – NEOM alone accounts for 20% of global steel market
Green steel project tracking (Baosteel Saudi mill, EMSTEEL TrueGreen)
US-Iran negotiation impact – when to adjust CFR quotes

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📧 amy@amyinsights.com
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