Report Period: June 24 – July 1, 2026
Coverage: India

📌 Core Insight Preview (Week of July 1, 2026)

The Indian steel market has entered a critical transition. The BIS stainless steel exemption expired on 30 June with no extension. The DGTR launched its most significant trade action since the safeguard duty — an anti-dumping probe into HR flat products from China, Japan, and Russia. Semi-finished billet posted its fourth consecutive weekly rise, while BF rebar sank to a six-month low as distributor inventories ballooned past 30 days. And the post-ceasefire logistics normalisation gathered pace, with the Baltic Dry Index down nearly 10% over the past month.

Preview of This Week’s Top Developments:

BIS Exemption Expired — No Extension: From 1 July, all stainless steel flat product imports must carry full BIS certification. The full report identifies which suppliers hold certification and which narrow product categories remain temporarily exempt.
DGTR Launches HR Flat Products AD Probe: The investigation covers China, Japan, and Russia — including Japan, a major FTA supplier. If duties are imposed, the FTA-route for HRC could be partially closed. The report analyses which non-duty origins stand to gain.
Billet Recovery Enters Fourth Week: The Raipur billet index rose to INR 39,100 per tonne, consolidating a recovery driven by cost-push support and tightening supply. The report assesses whether finished long products will follow.
BF Rebar Hits Six-Month Low: Prices fell another INR 1,200 per tonne to INR 51,700 per tonne, with inventories exceeding 30 days. The BF-IF spread has collapsed to just INR 6,000 per tonne, signalling an approaching structural turning point.
Post-Ceasefire Logistics Normalising: The BDI fell to 2,524 points, freight rates are declining, and Hormuz traffic is recovering. But Iranian steel capacity needs six to twelve months to repair, keeping the semi-finished supply gap wide open.

📊 Price Snapshot (Directional Indicators)

Product	Market	WoW Direction	Key Driver
HRC (IS2062)	Mumbai	⏸️ Flat	Safeguard protection; import spread above INR 7,000/t
Billet (150mm)	Raipur	▲ Fourth weekly rise	Cost-push support; supply-side adjustments
BF Rebar	Mumbai	▼ Six-month low	Inventory over 30 days; aggressive destocking
CRC (IS513)	Mumbai	⏸️ Flat	Steady manufacturing demand
Sponge Iron (PDRI)	Raipur	⏸️ Flat	Stable after prior plunge
Chinese HRC FOB	China	⏸️ Stable at $502/t	Domestic edging lower; export prices holding

Full price tables with week-on-week comparisons for all tracked products — including import parity calculations, scrap benchmarks, and NMDC iron ore — are available in the complete report.

💡 Actionable Intelligence Preview (Partial)

For Procurement Managers:
The full report provides immediate guidance on BIS compliance for stainless steel imports, whether the four-week billet recovery makes current semi-finished prices a genuine buying opportunity, and how to time rebar procurement as distributor inventories start to destock.

For Export Sales Managers:
We map the persistent Iranian supply gap and the improving freight cost environment that is making Indian exports more competitive. The report also analyses how the new HR flat products AD probe could open market share for non-duty suppliers.

🔍 Why Download the Full Report?

This free sample only scratches the surface. The complete 8-page weekly briefing — including a dedicated Week-on-Week Deep Dive comparing this week’s data against last week across all product categories — provides the granular data and dual-perspective action advice required to navigate the BIS deadline, the new AD probe, and the diverging flat and long product markets.

Full Report Includes:

Price & Cost Analysis: Domestic spot prices for all major markets, China FOB benchmarks, LME base metals, scrap, and raw material costs — with WoW comparisons.
Import Parity Calculations: Landed cost estimates vs. domestic prices under the 11.5% safeguard duty, updated for the latest rupee and freight movements.
Policy & Trade Risk Tracker: BIS compliance status, the new HR flat products AD probe, UK safeguard implementation, and the impact of the 19 June ceasefire.
Supply Chain Radar: BDI trends, Hormuz recovery status, port congestion metrics, and Iranian steel capacity restoration timeline.
Dual-Perspective Actionable Advice: Separate recommendations for Procurement Managers and Export Sales Managers — covering flats, longs, stainless, scrap, and UK-bound exports.

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