Report Period: June 17 – June 24, 2026
Coverage: China Domestic Market
📌 Core Insights
📌 Iron Ore Breaks Below $100/t** – Platts 62% index dropped to **$97.60/t on June 23, down $1.25 day-on-day. Global shipments surged to 34.68 Mt, intensifying supply pressure. This removes the last cost-floor narrative supporting domestic steel prices.
📌 Steel Prices Accelerate Decline – The Myspic composite index fell to 3,475.23, down 42 points week-on-week. Rebar dropped RMB 80/t to 3,329 yuan/t, HRC fell RMB 53/t to 3,359 yuan/t, and billet broke below 3,000 yuan/t to 2,980 yuan/t. The pace of decline doubled from the prior week.
📌 Coke Eighth Hike Landed, Ninth Expected – Coke producers fully implemented the eighth round of hikes (+50–55 yuan/t) on June 22–23. Cumulative increases since April exceed 400 yuan/t. Shanxi mine safety inspections keep 58 mines offline with 65.70 Mt of suspended capacity.
📌 Mill Margins Near Breaking Point – Blast furnace rebar margin collapsed to just 37 yuan/t, down 8 yuan/t week-on-week. EAF flat-steel margin is negative at -17 yuan/t. The 247-mill profitability rate held at 55.84%, but a further drop could trigger coordinated production cuts.
📌 Social Inventory 23% Above Last Year – Despite a modest 6.35 Mt destocking this week, five-product social inventory remains at 1,125.9 Mt, up 23.3% year-on-year. Distributors refuse to hold stock amid falling prices, pushing inventory back to mills.
📌 EU Quota Cliff Threatens Domestic Oversupply – The EU’s 47% quota cut and 50% excess duty take effect July 1. With export channels narrowing, an estimated 5–7 Mt of steel that previously flowed to Europe annually will now need to be absorbed domestically, adding further pressure to an already oversupplied market.
💰 Key Domestic Prices This Week (June 17–24)
| Product | Specification | Price (RMB/t) | WoW Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rebar | HRB400E 20mm national avg | 3,329 | ▼ 80 (−2.3%) | 📉 Accelerating |
| Wire Rod | HPB300 index | 3,649 | ▼ 76 (−2.0%) | 📉 |
| HRC | Q235B 4.75mm national avg | 3,359 | ▼ 53 (−1.6%) | 📉 |
| CRC | SPCC 1.0mm Shanghai | 3,730 | ▼ ~140 (−3.6%) | 📉 Steepest decline |
| HDG | SGCC 1.0mm Shanghai | 3,940 | ▼ 52 (−1.3%) | 📉 |
| Seamless Pipe | 20# 108×4.5 national avg | 4,321 | ▼ 1 (flat) | ⏸️ |
| Welded Pipe | Q235B 4″ Tangshan | 3,410 | ▼ est. 2–3% | 📉 |
| Tangshan Billet | Q235 150mm ex-works | 2,980 | ▼ 60 (−2.0%) | 📉 Below 3,000 |
🏭 Supply & Inventory Snapshot
- 247 BF operating rate: 84.25% (unchanged w-o-w)
- Daily hot metal output: 242.24 Mt/day (▲ 1.38 Mt)
- Five-product social inventory: 1,125.9 Mt (▼ 6.35 Mt, but +23.3% YoY)
- Mill inventory: 431.1 Mt (▲ 3.15 Mt)
- Mill profitability ratio: 55.84% (unchanged but precariously low)
- Iron ore 62% Fe: **$97.60/t** (▼ below $100 floor)
🔮 Next Week’s Market Signal
Direction: Further decline (−1.0% to −2.0%). Post-holiday inventory pressure will fully surface as trading resumes. Iron ore momentum is negative, and EU-bound volumes will flood back into the domestic market after July 1. HRC domestic prices could test 3,300 yuan/t.
The one upside risk: If mill margins drop further and trigger coordinated blast furnace maintenance announcements, a supply-side response could quickly reverse sentiment and put a floor under prices.
This sample reflects only a portion of the full report. The complete edition includes a seven-dimension week-on-week deep dive, detailed inventory breakdowns by product and region, cost and margin analysis, domestic policy tracking (NDRC carbon-reduction campaign, export license updates), end-use demand signals (construction, auto, appliance), and specific procurement recommendations for traders, distributors, and end-users.
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