Global Steel Market Update & Price Snapshot
| Product | China FOB | US | EU (EXW) | Turkey | Japan (FOB) | Korea (FOB) | India (EXW) | Vietnam (CFR) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HRC | 499 | 1,210–1,220short ton | 735–755 EUR≈ 862–886 | 620EXW | 634 | 551 | ~705 | 537–548 |
| Rebar | — | — | — | 615 / 630FOB / EXW | — | — | — | — |
| Medium Plate | 518/536 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slab | 468/478 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Billet | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
HRC · Global Price Comparison (USD/t)
Rebar & Billet · Key Offers (USD/t)
China Steel Inventory Surges During Holiday
Five major steel product total inventory rose 855,000 tonnes week-on-week to 15.4844 million tonnes during the National Day holiday, with mill inventories up 357,000 tonnes and social inventories up 498,000 tonnes. The buildup was concentrated in construction steel as construction site activity stalled.
Mill Profitability Hits Extreme Low of 6.93%
Only 6.93% of surveyed steel mills were profitable as of early October, down 51 percentage points year-on-year. Tangshan billet mills are losing approximately 140 yuan/t at current ex-works prices of 2,970 yuan/t. The CISA’s 44-mill production cut initiative has yet to translate into meaningful output reductions, with daily hot metal output remaining above 2.36 million tonnes.
Rebar Production Falls, Flat Steel Output Rises
Five major product output rose just 1.75 million tonnes week-on-week to 7.9493 million tonnes. Rebar and wire rod production declined while HRC, CRC, and medium plate output increased, reflecting a shift in mill product mix toward flat and export-oriented products.
Coke First Round Price Cut Implemented
The first round of coke price cuts took effect on October 1: wet quenching -100 yuan/t, dry quenching -110 yuan/t. The market expects a second round of cuts as steel mill margins remain severely compressed. Coking coal also weakened, with Shanxi low-sulphur CCI falling 43 yuan/t to 2,331 yuan/t ex-works.
Iron Ore Index Falls Below $92/t — New Low for the Year
The Platts 61% Fe index fell to 91.05 USD/t as of October 6, down $1.80/t from September 30. The Mysteel 61% fines index dropped to 90.55 USD/dmt, a new low for the year. Weak demand from loss-making mills and elevated port inventories (~170 Mt) continue to pressure prices.
Tangshan Billet Rises 10 yuan/t on First Post-Holiday Day
Tangshan Qian’an billet ex-works price rose 10 yuan/t to 2,960 yuan/t on October 9. Warehouse spot prices held at 3,030–3,040 yuan/t on October 8. However, downstream re-rolling mills reduced daily billet consumption by 5,500 tonnes during the holiday, and Tangshan billet social inventory rose to 1.3385 million tonnes.
Jingye Steel Raises All Product Prices by 50 yuan/t
Jingye Steel announced a 50 yuan/t increase across all product lines — rebar, wire rod, medium plate, HRC, and cold-rolled — effective October 8. This coordinated mill action signals an attempt to pass on costs and test market acceptance. Baosteel, Ansteel, and Shougang had already raised October flat product prices by 200 yuan/t in mid-September.
HRC Market Shows Regional Divergence
Shanghai HRC quotes fell 20–30 yuan/t from pre-holiday levels to 3,280–3,290 yuan/t, with average inquiry sentiment. Wuxi HRC inventory reached approximately 630,000 tonnes, described as “relatively large.” Zhejiang traders quoted 3,280–3,310 yuan/t, while Fuzhou held at 3,360–3,400 yuan/t.
Rebar Market Holds Steady, Limited Upside Expected
The national average 20mm Grade III seismic rebar price stood at 3,330 yuan/t. Shanghai at 3,230 yuan/t; Beijing at 3,150 yuan/t. Post-holiday restocking provides modest support, but inventory pressure caps gains.
Manufacturing PMI Returns to Expansion at 50.3%
China’s September manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3%, up from 49.8% in August, with the new orders index climbing to 51.2% and production at 51.4%. The rebound supports demand expectations for flat steel products.
Global Macro Headwinds Persist
US dollar index at 102.27; the Fed signals another rate hike before year-end. The EU extends CBAM to downstream products; the US imposes a 136.52% preliminary AD duty on Chinese tin mill products. Trade barriers continue to reshape global steel flows.
Post-Holiday Trading Strategy — Both Sides of the Trade
Procurement: Wait and observe for 3–5 trading days to assess inventory destocking pace and end-user demand. The 50 yuan/t mill price increases may face resistance if spot trading remains subdued. Iron ore below $92/t suggests limited cost-push pressure.
Export Sales: The $50/t gap between Chinese HRC FOB ($499/t) and Turkish HRC FOB ($615–620/t), and the $230/t+ gap with EU HRC, continues to create export opportunities in markets without anti-dumping barriers. Focus on the Middle East and Africa for flat products.
For Procurement Managers
- Wait and observe for the next 3–5 trading days to gauge the pace of inventory destocking and the strength of real end-user demand.
- The 50 yuan/t mill price increases announced for October 8 may face resistance if spot trading remains subdued.
- Iron ore below $92/t suggests limited cost-push pressure — near-term procurement planning can be conservative.
- Watch for a possible second round of coke price cuts, which would further ease input costs.
- Construction steel inventory is elevated — use buyer leverage when negotiating rebar and wire rod volumes.
For Export Sales Managers
- The $50/t gap between Chinese HRC FOB ($499/t) and Turkish HRC FOB ($615–620/t) creates room to compete.
- The $230/t+ gap with EU HRC (€735–755/t, ≈$862–886/t) keeps export opportunities alive in markets without anti-dumping barriers.
- Focus on the Middle East and Africa for flat products — these markets still show import demand.
- Monitor Vietnam for potential HRC import demand if domestic prices rise further.
- Global price dispersion remains at historic highs — target markets where trade barriers are lowest.