Global Steel Price Comparison Matrix
| Product | China FOB | US | EU (EXW) | Turkey (FOB/EXW) | Japan (FOB) | Korea (FOB) | India (EXW) | Vietnam (CFR) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HRC | 499▲1 | 1,240–1,367short ton | 732–737 EUR≈ 851–857 | 605–630EXW | 634 | 551 | ~705 | 536–548 |
| Rebar | — | — | — | 615–620EXW excl. VAT | — | — | ~547Raipur | — |
| Medium Plate | 519/537 | — | — | — | 730 | — | — | — |
| Slab | 468/478 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Billet | 470–475 | — | — | — | — | — | ~520–560 | — |
| CRC | ~550est. | ~1,630 | — | — | — | — | ~801 | — |
| Stainless 304 HRC | — | — | — | — | — | — | 222,000 INR≈ 2,524 | — |
HRC · Global Price Comparison (USD/t)
Rebar · Major Export Offers (USD/t)
China Steel Market in “Grinding Bottom” Phase
The national average 20mm Grade III seismic rebar price stood at 3,311 yuan/t on September 20, down just 2 yuan/t from the previous trading day. Weekend spot trading was subdued, with rebar futures (rb2701) closing flat at 3,104 yuan/t and HRC futures at 3,302 yuan/t. Market participants describe the situation as “下托上压” — supported below by cost, capped above by weak demand.
China’s Anti-Involution Campaign Intensifies
The State Administration for Market Regulation announced that during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, it will comprehensively deploy standards leadership, price enforcement, and quality supervision to combat “involution-style” destructive price competition. This follows the CISA’s 44-mill self-discipline initiative in mid-September, marking a coordinated policy effort to restore rational pricing.
China HRC Export FOB Holds at $499/t
Chinese HRC export FOB was assessed at $499/t on September 17, up $1/t from the previous assessment, supported by rising coking coal costs. Medium plate FOB held at 519/537 USD/t, and slab at 468/478 USD/t. Raw material cost increases are pushing export prices higher, though actual transactions remain small-scale and need-based.
Tangshan Billet Holds at 3,000 Yuan/t, Losses Widen
Tangshan Qian’an billet ex-works price held steady at 3,000 yuan/t, with warehouse spot prices at 3,050–3,060 yuan/t. However, billet mill losses are widening as the average hot metal cost (excluding tax) continues to rise. The cost squeeze is intensifying across the long-product chain.
US HRC Extends Historic Rally to $1,240/st
SMU’s US HRC price assessment rose to $1,240/short ton on September 18, up $60/st month-on-month and $455/st (58%) year-on-year. Nucor’s consumer spot price reached $1,200/short ton — the eighth consecutive weekly increase — while CSI West Coast rose to $1,260/short ton. The US market is experiencing the tightest supply conditions since 2021.
India HRC at Four-Year High
Indian domestic HRC prices rose 7% month-on-month to approximately 62,000 INR/t ($705/t) in September, the highest level in four years. CRC surged 8% to 70,500 INR/t ($801/t). Billet prices in Mandi rose 1,100 INR/t week-on-week to 48,000 INR/t. The price surge has priced Indian mills out of Asian export markets.
Turkish Rebar Continues Climbing
Turkish domestic rebar prices rose to 615–620 USD/t EXW (excluding VAT) on September 11, with Marmara mills quoting 620–625 USD/t. Export offers for late September–October shipment reached 605–615 USD/t FOB. The rally is driven by tightening scrap supply, with US-origin HMS 80:20 scrap at 392 USD/t CFR Turkey.
EU HRC Holds at €737/t, Q4 Outlook Firm
Northwest European HRC prices held at €737/t EXW (~$857/t), with Italian HRC at €732/t EXW (~$851/t). ArcelorMittal maintained its €20/t price increase for November deliveries, bringing Southern Europe delivered prices to €790/t. Market participants expect Q4 prices to settle at €750–800/t, according to an Argus survey.
Indonesia Launches AD Probe on Chinese Galvanized Sheet
Indonesia’s anti-dumping committee (KADI) initiated an anti-dumping investigation into galvanized sheet originating from China on September 20, following applications from PT. Tata Metal Lestari and PT. ArcelorMittal Nippon Steel Indonesia. This adds to the growing list of trade barriers facing Chinese steel exports in Southeast Asia.
Mexico Finalizes HRC Anti-Dumping Duties
Mexico issued a final affirmative anti-dumping determination on Chinese hot-rolled plate under 25.4mm thickness, imposing high anti-dumping duties. This further restricts Chinese HRC exports to the Mexican market, which had been a growing destination for Chinese steel amid US Section 232 barriers.
Iron Ore Below $100/t on Weak Fundamentals
Platts 61% Fe iron ore index stood at $96/t CFR China on September 17, down $4.60/t from the previous peak. DCE iron ore futures (i2701) held at 715 yuan/t in Friday night trading. Global iron ore shipments totaled 35.17 million tonnes, up 1.59 Mt week-on-week. The 47-port inventory remains elevated at 170.2 million tonnes, constraining price recovery.
Coking Coal Prices Cool on Supply-Side Policy
The three ministries’ joint notice on accelerating coal stable production and supply has rapidly corrected the “supply-tight” premium previously embedded in coking coal prices. Shanxi low-sulphur coking coal fell 32 yuan/t to 2,509 yuan/t ex-works, while coking coal futures (JM2701) dropped 0.88% to 1,513.5 yuan/t. Coke futures (J2701) fell 0.98% to 1,966 yuan/t.
China LPR Unchanged for 16th Consecutive Month
China’s September Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remained unchanged: 1-year at 3.0% and 5-year at 3.5%, marking the 16th consecutive month of no change. The stable rate environment provides limited additional stimulus for steel demand, reinforcing expectations of continued policy caution.
US-China Trade Talks Held in New York
US Treasury Secretary Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng met in New York on September 20 to discuss trade, investment, critical minerals, and AI. The talks maintained overall stability on the basis of previous negotiations, seeking progress on specific trade and investment issues. This represents a potentially positive signal for reducing trade tensions, though concrete outcomes remain to be seen.
Global Price Dispersion at Historic Highs
The US-China HRC spread now exceeds $870/t, while the EU-China spread exceeds $350/t, and the India-China spread exceeds $200/t. Trade barriers (Section 232, EU safeguards, CBAM, and multiple anti-dumping duties) continue to segment global markets and prevent arbitrage, creating a multi-tiered global pricing structure unprecedented in modern steel trade.