📡2026.7.1 CIS Steel Weekly Report — Free Sample Preview

Report Period: June 24 – July 1, 2026
Coverage: Russia | Ukraine | Kazakhstan
Includes: Week-on-Week Deep Dive (vs. June 17–24) & EU Safeguard Implementation Analysis

📌 1. Core Insights (Sample Excerpts)

📌 EU steel safeguard takes effect — 50% tariff and 47% quota cut now law – Regulation (EU) 2026/1384 entered force on July 1, permanently closing the European market to Russian finished steel. Country-specific quotas have been finalized. The redirection of volumes to Asia, MENA, and Central Asia is no longer a planning exercise — it is an urgent operational imperative. ⚠️ (Source: EUROMETAL, SteelHome, July 1, 2026)

📌 Rouble weakens sharply to 77.06/USD — but mills refuse to pass FX benefit to buyers – The rouble depreciated another 3.3% this week, bringing the two-week cumulative decline to 6.8%. Russian mills are hoarding the entire FX benefit as margin expansion, maintaining dollar offers at levels that are increasingly detached from market reality. ▲ (Source: CBR, AKM, June 26–29, 2026)

📌 Russian billet prices stall at $482/t FOB — standoff with buyers intensifies – The FOB index held flat week-on-week, while mill offers remain elevated. Turkish and Egyptian buyers are bidding far below offer levels, and the widening gap between seller ambitions and buyer willingness is the defining tension in the current market. ⏸️ (Source: SteelHome, June 23–30, 2026)

📌 Iranian billet expands geographic reach — offers to Saudi Arabia at $470–475/t CFR – Iran’s return to export markets is accelerating, with confirmed transactions and new tenders. The maritime blockade has been lifted and Hormuz tolls are suspended, further improving the competitiveness of Iranian supply. ▲ (Source: BigMint, SteelHome, June 23–25, 2026)

📌 Chinese billet falls to $455–465/t FOB — competitive pressure intensifies – Chinese exporters are lowering dollar offers, supported by RMB depreciation and falling iron ore costs. At current levels, Chinese billet is structurally cheaper than Russian material, adding to the competitive squeeze. ▼ (Source: SteelHome, June 30, 2026)

💰 2. Price & Cost Analysis (Sample Structure — Data Reserved)

🇷🇺 Russia – Export Prices (FOB Black Sea)

Competitiveness Assessment – Russia vs. Iran vs. China

🔒 Full price tables — including CFR Turkey/Egypt/Saudi Arabia benchmarks, the Rouble Transmission Mechanism model with pass-through rate analysis (currently at 0%), and detailed Iranian and Chinese offer breakdowns — are exclusively in the complete report.

🛡️ 3. Geopolitical & Logistics Risk (Sample Excerpts)

EU Safeguard Now in Force — Regulation (EU) 2026/1384

• 50% out-of-quota tariff, 18.3Mt annual quota (47% cut), melt-and-pour origin rule all effective July 1.
• Country-specific HRC quotas: Turkey 642,295t; India 597,274t; Ukraine 483,529t; Vietnam 414,972t.
• Russian finished steel excluded; only limited slab volumes continue through September 2028.

Black Sea — Risk Environment Deteriorates

• Ukrainian naval drone struck Russian tanker “Sig” near Novorossiysk (June 19).
• Russian Black Sea Fleet showing least activity on record (June 25).
• New port regulations require FSB approval for foreign ships (June 20).

Black Sea Shipping Risk Rating

🔒 War risk premium estimates, alternative routing cost models, and logistics cost comparisons for Black Sea, Baltic, and Far East routes are reserved for subscribers.

⚖️ 4. Policy & Compliance Update (Sample Excerpts)

🔒 Full legislative tracker, Trade Barrier Quick-Reference Matrix with country-specific EU quotas, and SPOT compliance checklist are reserved for subscribers.

💡 5. Actionable Advice (Sample Framework)

For Procurement Managers

• ✅ Prioritize Iranian billet – The cost advantage is decisive and logistics are improving. Specific entry targets, supplier qualification guidance, and sanctions compliance considerations are in the full report.
• ✅ Hold firm on Russian bids at levels supported by FX math – Mills have the headroom to cut prices; current offers are out of step with market reality. Detailed price targets and negotiation tactics are reserved for subscribers.
• ⚠️ EU safeguard is now in effect – Factor 50% tariff for any EU imports; secure quota allocations for non-Russian origins. Country-specific quota utilization guidance is in the full report.

For Export Sales Managers

• ✅ Cut Russian billet offers to defend market share – The premium-pricing window is closed. Specific CFR recommendations for Turkey, Egypt, and North Africa are reserved for subscribers.
• ✅ Redirect EU-bound volumes immediately – Market closure is now structural and permanent. Absorption capacity analysis for alternative markets is in the full report.
• ✅ Leverage SPFS/BRICS Pay – Settlement cost advantage remains a key differentiator in price-sensitive markets.

🌍 6. Major Events This Week (Sample Headlines)

• July 1: EU steel safeguard takes effect; 50% tariff, quota cut, melt-and-pour rule now legally binding.
• July 1: UK safeguard also takes effect; 51% quota cut, 50% tariff.
• June 27: Rouble weakens to 77.06/USD; two-week cumulative depreciation reaches 6.8%.
• June 25: Iranian billet offers reach Saudi Arabia at $470–475/t CFR; geographic expansion confirmed.
• June 26: Iron ore falls to $99.2/t — lowest since August 2025; raw material cost support collapsing.
• June 29: Turkish scrap declines to $370–375/t CFR; cost-floor argument for billet removed.
• June 25: Russian Black Sea Fleet shows least activity on record at Novorossiysk.
• June 20: New Russian port regulations bar foreign tankers; FSB approval now required.
• July 1: SPOT security payment becomes mandatory for Armenia, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan imports.

🔒 Full event details with source links, impact assessments, and dedicated procurement and sales advice are available in the subscriber version.

Why Subscribe to the Full Report?

This free sample provides a structural overview of the CIS Steel Weekly Report. The complete report delivers the specific, dollar-denominated data and actionable guidance you need to make confident procurement and sales decisions in one of the world’s most volatile steel markets.

Subscribers receive:

• Real-time FOB/CFR prices for billet, slab, HRC, rebar, and pig iron across all CIS origins, with week-on-week comparisons.
• The Rouble Transmission Mechanism model — a quantitative framework translating FX movements into dollar-denominated billet price scenarios, updated weekly with pass-through rate analysis.
• A dedicated Week-on-Week Deep Dive section analyzing price changes across seven dimensions with clear attribution of weight to each driver.
• Exclusive “Buy/Wait/Sell” calls with precise price targets, entry levels, and timing recommendations.
• Full legislative tracking including the EU and UK safeguard regimes, SPOT pre-clearance system, Kazakhstan’s export bans, and Ukraine’s CBAM negotiations.
• Iran supply return impact analysis — quantifying the competitive challenge to Russian and Chinese billet pricing as volumes ramp up.
• Market structure and anti-dumping analysis by product category — including finalized EU country-specific quota allocations.
• Payment channel compliance guides — step-by-step SPFS pre-verification, BRICS Pay status, and CIPS-SPFS interconnection updates.

Disclaimer: This sample is for illustrative purposes only. The full report compiles data from authoritative sources including SteelHome, Mysteel, BigMint, SteelOrbis, Kallanish, SMM, GMK Center, Ukrainian Steel Association, TASS, Central Bank of Russia, European Commission, EUROMETAL, NewsOnAir, Worldports, Militarnyi, Asian Metal, Interfax-Kazakhstan, AKM, and REVERA. All price estimates, forecasts, and actionable advice are exclusive to the paid subscription. Sanctions, trade policies, and logistics conditions are subject to rapid change. Russia-related trade carries heightened legal and financial risk. Iranian-origin material may be subject to sanctions in certain jurisdictions.

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