Report Period: June 24 – July 1, 2026
Coverage: Nigeria | Egypt | South Africa | Algeria | Morocco | Kenya | Tanzania | Ethiopia | Ghana | Angola
📌 Core Insights
• Nigeria green tax TAKES EFFECT July 1 – The new excise and green tax regime is now in effect. The 90‑day grace period for Form M opened before April 1 has expired. Importers must now factor the additional tax layer into all cost calculations. SONCAP certification remains mandatory via the NSW platform.
• China HRC export prices at $490‑500/t FOB – Mysteel assessed SS400 3mm HRC at $495/t FOB on June 26, with deals in a $490‑500/t range. Billet tradable levels discussed around $455/t FOB as Iranian supply returns and the EU safeguard window closes.
• Iran steel export ban CONFIRMED LIFTED – Iranian billet offers resurfaced at $470‑475/t CFR Saudi Arabia, with three to four of the kingdom’s major billet consumers in discussions with Iranian suppliers. Competition for Chinese and Turkish suppliers into Africa is intensifying.
• Egypt cancels safeguard on billets and rebar – Effective June 16, 2026. Chinese billet at $455-465/t FOB now enters Egypt duty-free. The Egyptian pound strengthened to EGP 49.30-49.44/$, its best level since before the March flotation.
• South Africa formally confirms 52.34% safeguard on corrosion‑resistant coil – ITAC Report No. 768 issued June 15. Three‑year declining tariff: 52.34% Year 1, 37.34% Year 2, 22.34% Year 3. Vietnam EXCLUDED from scope.
• Mombasa port congestion at 5.33 days – Slight improvement from 5.73 days last week, but persistent vessel queues and high yard utilisation continue. Abidjan surged to 8.56 days, a 56% increase week‑on‑week. Conakry remains critical at 16.2 days.
💰 Price & Cost Analysis — Week‑on‑Week Comparison (Sample)
China FOB Export Prices
| Product | Last Week (Jun 17‑24) | This Week (Jun 24 – Jul 1) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Billet (3SP, 150mm) | $465‑468/t | $455‑465/t | ▼ |
| HRC (SS400, 3mm) | $495/t | $490‑500/t (deals) | ▼ |
| Rebar (B500B) | ~$590‑595/t | $481‑483/t | ▼ |
Nigeria CFR Lagos (Sample)
| Product | Last Week | This Week | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Billet | $585‑605/t | $580‑600/t | ▼ |
| Rebar | $645‑665/t | $640‑660/t | ▼ |
| HRC | $575‑595/t | $570‑590/t | ▼ |
Note: New excise and green tax regime effective July 1. The 90‑day grace period has expired. All CFR estimates now exclude the pre‑tax window benefits.
Egypt CFR Alexandria (Sample — duty changes noted)
| Product | Last Week | This Week | Duty Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Billet | $575‑595/t | $570‑590/t | Safeguard CANCELLED |
| Rebar | $640‑660/t | $635‑655/t | Safeguard CANCELLED |
| HRC | $620‑640/t | $615‑635/t | 13.6% (≥$76/t) remains |
South Africa CFR Durban (Sample — new safeguard noted)
| Product | Last Week | This Week | Duty Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Structural Steel (China) | Base + 74.98% AD | Base + 74.98% AD | Unchanged |
| Corrosion‑resistant coil (China) | Base + 52.34% safeguard | Base + 52.34% safeguard | ITAC Report 768 confirmed |
| Billet | $585‑605/t | $580‑600/t | 10% general duty |
Morocco CFR Casablanca
| Product | Last Week | This Week | Safeguard Duty |
|---|---|---|---|
| HRC | $610‑630/t (19%) | $605‑625/t (19%) | 19% from June 19 |
Kenya CFR Mombasa
| Product | Last Week | This Week | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rebar | $650‑670/t | $645‑665/t | ▼ |
Full CFR tables, exact duty and levy calculations, and viability assessments for all ten African markets are in the complete report.
💡 Sample Actionable Advice
For Procurement Managers:
• Adapt to Nigeria’s new green‑tax reality — pause large‑volume orders for 2‑3 weeks while you recalculate all‑in landed costs under the new tax regime and verify the exact tax rates applicable to each tariff code.
• Capitalise on Egypt’s duty‑free billet and rebar window — Chinese billet at $455‑465/t FOB now enters Egypt without safeguard duty. Compare against domestic Ezz Steel rebar at EGP 40,330/t (~$775/t) for a clear import advantage.
For Export Sales Managers:
• Manage the post‑EU‑safeguard supply redirection strategically — do not flood the African market with discounted tonnage. Prioritize Egypt (duty‑free billet/rebar) and Nigeria (post‑tax adjustment, then recovery).
• Pause Chinese‑origin corrosion‑resistant coil quotes to South Africa — offer Vietnamese‑sourced material instead. Vietnam is EXCLUDED from the 52.34% safeguard measure.
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