Report Period: June 24 – July 1, 2026
Coverage: China Domestic Market
📌 Core Insights
📌 EU Quota Cut Takes Effect July 1 – The EU slashed quota-free steel imports by 47% and doubled the excess tariff to 50%. This effectively closes the European volume channel for Chinese finished steel and will redirect an estimated 15 Mt of annual import demand.
📌 Mill Profitability Crashes to 51.08% – The 247-mill profitability rate dropped 4.76 percentage points in a single week. The ninth round of coke hikes, taking cumulative increases beyond 450 yuan/t since April, combined with falling steel prices, is pushing mills toward forced production cuts.
📌 Total Inventory Surges by 44 Mt – Five-product total inventory jumped to 1,600.99 Mt (+2.8% w-o-w), with mill inventory alone up 25 Mt. Social inventory rose 19 Mt, and building materials consumption collapsed 12.7% w-o-w.
📌 Hot Metal Output Hits 13-Month High – Daily hot metal output reached 242.95 Mt/day, the highest in over a year, even as margins shrink. This prisoners’ dilemma — each mill hoping others cut first — is accelerating the inventory build.
📌 Semi-Finished Steel Exports Surge 392% YoY – May exports of billet and slab hit 1.81 Mt, the third consecutive month above 1.5 Mt, as Chinese mills bypass finished-product AD duties by shipping to ASEAN re-rollers.
💰 Key Prices This Week
| Product | This Week (Jun 30) | WoW Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Myspic Composite Index | 3,452.88 | ▼ 22 pts (−0.6%) | 📉 Slowing |
| Rebar (HRB400E 20mm) | 3,300 yuan/t | ▼ ~29 (−0.9%) | 📉 |
| HRC (Q235B 4.75mm) | 3,341 yuan/t | ▼ ~18 (−0.5%) | 📉 |
| CRC (SPCC 1.0mm) | 3,821 yuan/t | ▼ ~44 (−1.1%) | 📉 |
| HDG (SGCC 1.0mm) | 3,947 yuan/t | ▼ ~45 (−1.1%) | 📉 |
| Tangshan Billet | 2,970 yuan/t | ▼ 10 (−0.3%) | 📉 |
| HRC Export FOB | 495 USD/t | ▼ 7 (−1.4%) | 📉 |
Full report includes all eight tracked products with regional price breakdowns.
🏭 Supply & Inventory Snapshot
- 247 BF operating rate: 84.41% (▲ 0.16 pp w-o-w)
- Daily hot metal output: 242.95 Mt/day (▲ 0.71 Mt)
- Five-product total inventory: 1,600.99 Mt (▲ 43.97 Mt)
- Mill profitability ratio: 51.08% (▼ 4.76 pp)
- Iron ore 62% Fe: $98.70/t (still below $100)
🔮 Next Week’s Signal
Direction: Range-bound to slightly lower (−0.3% to −0.8%). The pace of decline is decelerating, and production cuts are now probable given the profitability crash. However, the severe inventory overhang will cap any attempted rebound. The manufacturing PMI recovery to 50.3% provides a tentative floor for flat products.
This sample reflects only a portion of the full report. The complete edition includes a seven-dimension week-on-week deep dive, detailed trade barrier mapping, cost and profit analysis by product, semi-finished steel export channel analysis, CBAM compliance guidance, and specific actionable recommendations for procurement and export sales managers.
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