๐ฅ EU CBAM Tightens โ 35 days until the 31 July reporting deadline
Why procurement managers should care: EU importers will demand verified emissions data from Chinese suppliers. No data means the “top 10 highest-emitting countries” default value kicks in โ and the implicit carbon tax bill spikes. This directly hits landed costs and competitiveness for any steel entering Europe.
Why exporters should care: CBAM has expanded from six basic materials to downstream steel-intensive products, and scrap is now included. It affects not just steel exports but components, machinery, and equipment containing steel. The window to adapt is extremely short โ reinforced rules could be effective as early as late 2026.
Probability: 95% (legislated, enforcement underway)
What to do in the next 24 hours: Audit every product line with EU exposure for CBAM reporting obligations. Contact EU importers now to clarify the 31 July quarterly data requirements. Start building an internal carbon monitoring system โ the 30 September first annual declaration is a hard deadline.
๐ฅ Strait of Hormuz Reopening โ the Middle East export window is opening again
Why procurement managers should care: During the blockade, China’s coated steel exports to the seven Persian Gulf countries collapsed 74.24%, and to the UAE specifically 94.11%. Reopening will restore blocked shipping lanes and cut landed costs by an estimated $20โ30/t. The Middle East will re-emerge as a major export destination, potentially pulling supply away from oversaturated Southeast Asian markets and easing regional price pressure.
Why exporters should care: In 2025, roughly 14% of China’s steel exports went to the Middle East. Stranded cargoes unloaded in Oman and India will finally move to their destinations. Saudi Arabia (5.57 Mt of Chinese steel imports in 2025) and the UAE (5.46 Mt) are the core markets. Pipe export margins to the Middle East sit at ~CNY 70โ100/t โ this channel is worth reactivating now.
Probability: 85% (US-Iran agreement announced, signed 19 June)
What to do in the next 24 hours: Reconnect with Middle East buyers in Saudi Arabia and the UAE to gauge near-term purchasing plans. Review previously shelved export orders and prepare to re-quote. Watch ocean freight rates and recalculate landed costs and margins.
๐ฅ Japan’s HRC Anti-Dumping Probe + Indonesia’s Provisional HRC Duty โ a “double strike” on Asian HRC exports
Why procurement managers should care: Japan (1 June launch) and Indonesia (now in force) have successively imposed trade barriers on Chinese HRC. Combined with Vietnam’s 23โ28% anti-dumping duties from 2025, Chinese HRC is now blocked in three major Asian markets simultaneously. This will force more Chinese HRC into the domestic market or other regions, increasing domestic supply pressure and potentially lowering domestic HRC prices โ a near-term positive for buyers.
Why exporters should care: Japan’s probe covers 21 HS codes spanning automotive, shipbuilding, home appliances, and construction machinery steel. Indonesia has already imposed provisional duties on Wuhan Steel HRC. The “Asia corridor” for Chinese HRC exports is being systematically sealed. Mills are accelerating the shift from direct HRC export to “slab export + overseas re-rolling” โ export strategies and capacity allocation need urgent reassessment.
Probability: 90% (Japan probe launched, Indonesia duty in effect)
What to do in the next 24 hours: Assess your HRC export exposure to Japan and Indonesia, and quantify the potential tariff impact. Explore the “slab export + overseas re-rolling” alternative. Use the likely domestic HRC supply increase window to evaluate procurement timing.
The common thread across all three: trade barriers are fundamentally redrawing global steel trade flows. The EU’s CBAM and safeguard measures are sealing Western markets; Japan, Indonesia, and Vietnam are sealing Asian markets. Chinese steel exports are facing a simultaneous squeeze from both east and west. The few bright spots โ the reopening Middle East and surging Indian demand โ also carry high geopolitical and trade friction risk. Exporters must accelerate market diversification. Buyers should use the domestic supply increase window to optimise procurement rhythms.
โย amy@amyinsights.com