Core Insights

Egypt cancelled safeguard duties on billet and rebar (June 16). The 13.12% duty is gone. Chinese billet and rebar now enter Egypt duty‑free, improving landed costs by $15‑25/t. HRC, CRC, HDG, PPGI duties remain until September 13.
South Africa imposed a 52.34% anti‑dumping duty on Chinese corrosion‑resistant steel coil (thin gauge). First‑year rate declines to 37.34% and 22.34% in subsequent years. China supplies over 90% of this material.
China HRC FOB fell $7/t to $495/t, dropping below $500 for the first time since mid‑May. Billet FOB down $8/t to $465‑468/t. The Dragon Boat Festival lull, EU safeguard deadline rush, and returning Iranian supply drove the decline.
Iran export ban confirmed lifted. 13‑15 million tpy of semi‑finished and flat steel capacity is returning to global markets. First offers reaching East and North African buyers.
Nigeria green‑tax deadline: only 7 days remain. Importers in final sprint to clear goods under current 35% duty structure before July 1 excise and green tax.
Mombasa port waiting time worsened to 5.73 days, up from 5.3 days. Conakry hit a critical 16.2 days. Tema and Abidjan above 5 days. COSATU protests disrupted South African port operations on June 19.
Morocco HRC safeguard dropped to 19% (from 23%) on June 19. Turkey remains excluded from exemptions.
Simandou iron ore ramp‑up exceeds forecasts: 600,000 tonnes produced in Q1 2026, three vessels monthly. First cargo reached China.

Price & Cost Analysis – Week‑on‑Week Comparison (Sample)

China FOB Export Prices

Product Jun 10‑17 Jun 17‑24 Change
Billet (3SP, 150mm) $473‑476/t $465‑468/t Down $8/t
HRC (SS400, 3mm) $502/t $495/t Down $7/t
Rebar (B500B) ~$590‑600/t ~$590‑595/t Slightly lower

Nigeria CFR Lagos

Product Jun 10‑17 Jun 17‑24 Change
Billet $590‑610/t $585‑605/t Down $5/t
Rebar $650‑670/t $645‑665/t Down $5/t
HRC $580‑600/t $575‑595/t Down $5/t

Egypt CFR Alexandria (duty change noted)

Product Jun 10‑17 Jun 17‑24 Duty Status
Billet $580‑600/t $575‑595/t Safeguard CANCELLED
Rebar $650‑670/t $640‑660/t Safeguard CANCELLED
HRC $620‑640/t $620‑640/t 13.6% (≥$76/t) remains

South Africa CFR Durban (selected)

Product Jun 10‑17 Jun 17‑24 Duty Status
Structural Steel (China) Base + 74.98% AD Base + 74.98% AD Unchanged
Corrosion‑resistant coil — Base + 52.34% AD NEW DUTY
Billet $590‑610/t $585‑605/t 10% general duty

Morocco CFR Casablanca

Product Jun 10‑17 Jun 17‑24 Duty Status
HRC $610‑630/t (23%) $610‑630/t (19%) 19% from June 19

Kenya CFR Mombasa

Product Jun 10‑17 Jun 17‑24 Change
Rebar $650‑670/t $650‑670/t Unchanged

Full CFR tables for all ten markets, complete duty calculations, and viability assessments are in the complete report.

Sample Actionable Advice

For Procurement Managers:

Execute final Nigerian pre‑tax sprint this week. Only 7 days until July 1 green tax. Billet CFR Lagos $585‑605/t, naira stable, reserves at 17‑year high. Open Form M immediately.
Capitalise on Egypt’s duty‑free billet and rebar. Chinese billet FOB $465‑468/t enters Egypt without safeguard duty. Compare against domestic Ezz Steel rebar at EGP 40,330‑40,602/t.

For Export Sales Managers:

Pause all Chinese‑origin roofing steel and structural steel quotes to South Africa. New 52.34% AD duty on corrosion‑resistant coil and existing 74.98% on structural steel close the SACU market. Redirect volumes to Nigeria and Egypt.
Defend African market share with value, not just price. Offer SONCAP, SABS, GOEIC certification support and route East African cargo via Dar es Salaam (3.25 days) as Mombasa reaches 5.73 days.

What you get in the full Week‑on‑Week Deep Dive Analysis:

Complete price tables for all steel products and African destinations with week‑on‑week changes
Detailed driver analysis: prices, policy, currencies, logistics, sentiment, and new data
Egypt safeguard cancellation impact and procurement strategy
South Africa’s new roofing steel AD duty and ITAC rebate pathway update
Iran supply return tracker and competitive analysis
Next‑week price forecast with arguments and counter‑risks
Tailored action plans for procurement managers and export sales managers

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