Report Period:ย June 10 โ June 17, 2026ย
๐ Core Insights
๐ Total Inventory Surges Above 1.56 Billion Tonnes โ Five-product total inventory (social + mill) jumped 12.05 Mt week-on-week to 1,560.22 Mt. Social inventory is now 22% higher than a year ago, and mill inventory accumulation is accelerating as distributors refuse to take stock.
๐ Seventh Coke Hike Launched, Margins Crushed โ Coke producers initiated the seventh round of price increases (+50โ55 yuan/t) on June 15. Since April, cumulative coke hikes exceed 400 yuan/t. The 247-mill profitability rate plunged to 55.84%, the lowest in months, with EAF mills already running at a loss.
๐ Trade Barriers Close Key Export Channels โ South Koreaโs provisional anti-dumping duties of 22.34โ26.28% on Chinese galvanized cold-rolled steel took effect June 12. The EU confirmed a 47% cut in quota-free imports, effective July 1, with the excess tariff doubling to 50%. Japan and Vietnam also launched new investigations.
๐ Demand Remains Absent Ahead of Holiday โ The southern plum rain season continues to suppress construction activity, and the upcoming Dragon Boat Festival (June 19) will further reduce trading days. Rebar apparent consumption is declining faster than expected, and the manufacturing PMI new orders sub-index fell below 50.
๐ฐ Key Prices This Week (June 10โ17)
| Product | Domestic Price (RMB/t) | WoW Change | Export FOB / Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rebar (HRB400E 20mm) | 3,409 | โผ 14 (โ0.4%) | Negotiable; mills under pressure |
| HRC (Q235B 4.75mm) | 3,412 | โผ 13 (โ0.4%) | **$502/t** (โผ $3) |
| CRC (SPCC 1.0mm) | 3,865 | โผ 8 (โ0.2%) | Mills deep in loss; discounts available |
| HDG (SGCC 1.0mm) | 3,992 | โฒ 2 (+0.1%) | Only stable product |
| Seamless Pipe (20# 108ร4.5) | 4,322 | โผ 4 (โ0.1%) | Slow decline |
| Welded Pipe (Q235B 4โณ) | 3,625 | โผ 8 (โ0.2%) | Oversupplied; exporters eager |
| Tangshan Billet (Q235) | 3,040 | โธ๏ธ Stable | Export $470โ475/t |
๐ญ Supply & Inventory Snapshot
- 247 BF operating rate:ย 84.25% (โฒ 0.31 pp w-o-w)
- Daily hot metal output:ย 240.86 Mt/day (โฒ 0.14 Mt)
- Five-product total inventory:ย 1,560.22 Mt (โฒ 12.05 Mt)
- Mill profitability ratio:ย 55.84% (โผ 3.47 pp)
๐ฎ Next Weekโs Procurement Signal
Direction: Slightly lower, range-bound (โ0.5% to โ1.0%). The Dragon Boat Festival holiday will shorten the trading week, and inventory pressure will continue. HRC FOB could test $495โ498/t. The only upside risk: if coke-driven margin losses trigger forced production cuts, prices could find a floor quickly.
This sample reflects only a portion of the full report. The complete edition includes a seven-dimension week-on-week analysis, detailed policy tracking, all-product price tables with YoY comparisons, cost and margin breakdowns, trade barrier maps, and targeted recommendations for both procurement managers and export sales managers.
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