Period: June 3 – 10, 2026
This Week’s Defining Moves
Nigeria’s green‑tax countdown enters its final three weeks, creating a narrow but powerful window for importers to lock in CFR prices before July 1. Meanwhile, Iran’s export ban expired without official extension, leaving the fate of 13‑15 million tonnes of annual semi‑finished capacity hanging in the balance. China’s HRC export prices are tentatively recovering, while CFR rates into West and North Africa have dropped sharply — a mix of pre‑tax pricing, freight recalibration, and a stronger naira.
- Nigeria green tax deadline – only 21 days left. Importers are accelerating orders, compressing CFR prices. The naira strengthened further to N1,360.55/$ , improving import affordability just in time.
- China HRC FOB recovered to $502–525/t**, but billet FOB remains stuck at **$465–475/t . Mills are holding firm on flats while semi‑finished demand stays cautious due to Iran uncertainty.
- CFR West Africa plummeted. Nigeria HRC dropped by over $100/t week‑on‑week, reflecting aggressive pre‑tax negotiation and a one‑off freight recalibration. Egypt and Morocco also saw sharp declines.
- South Africa’s tariff rebate pathway still lacks ITAC permit guidelines, keeping many importers on hold despite the published SARS rebate framework.
- Mombasa port congestion eased to ~4.5 days, while CMA CGM prepares a $400/TEU congestion surcharge on Dar es Salaam from June 15.
Price Snapshot (Partial Data)
| Product | Last Week | This Week | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Billet (FOB China) | $470–473/t | $465–475/t | ▼ |
| HRC (FOB China) | $498–500/t | $502–525/t | ▲ |
| Nigeria CFR Billet (est.) | $605–625/t | $590–610/t | ▼ |
| Nigeria CFR HRC (est.) | $685–715/t | $580–600/t | ▼▼ |
| Egypt CFR Billet (est.) | $605–625/t | $580–600/t | ▼ |
| South Africa CFR Billet (est.) | $575–595/t | $590–610/t | ▲ |
| Iron ore (62% Fe CFR China) | ~$105.80/dmt | ~$104.63/dmt | ▼ |
| Nigeria Naira (Official) | N1,372–1,375/$ | N1,360.55/$ | ▲ |
Full CFR tables, exact duty and levy calculations, and viability assessments for all ten African markets are in the complete report.
Sample Actionable Advice
For Procurement Managers:
- Accelerate Nigerian orders now. CFR prices have dropped sharply, the naira is strengthening, and the July 1 green‑tax deadline is only three weeks away. Open Form M immediately to lock in pre‑tax duty rates.
- Diversify billet supply for Q3. With Iran’s ban in legal limbo, split your book between Chinese and Indian origins and consider a small floating‑price component to hedge against a sudden resumption of Iranian exports.
For Export Sales Managers:
- Hold firm on HRC offers. The FOB recovery to $502–525/t has technical support, and domestic Chinese demand is stable. Do not chase the West African CFR downward — instead, differentiate with compliance support.
- Redirect billet sales to East and Southern Africa, where CFR is firming. South Africa’s CFR billet rose week‑on‑week, and Kenya rebar also edged up.
What you get in the full Week‑on‑Week Deep Dive Analysis:
- Complete week‑on‑week price comparisons for all major products and African destinations
- Detailed driver analysis across seven dimensions: prices, policy, FX, logistics, sentiment, new data, and overall assessment
- Anti‑dumping and trade‑remedy analysis with alternative origin recommendations
- Next‑week price forecast with supporting arguments and counter‑risks
- Tailored action plans for procurement managers and export sales managers
- Forward calendar of critical dates for the next 30 days
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Disclaimer: This sample contains partial data for illustrative purposes. The full report includes complete price tables, comprehensive policy analysis, and detailed action plans based on the latest market intelligence.