Report Period: May 27 – June 3, 2026
📌 Core Insights
- 📌 Iran steel export ban formally extended beyond May 30 — supply gap locked in through Q3 ▼ – Iran’s Ministry of Industry confirmed that the ban on 66 steel tariff codes (slabs, HRC, CRC, HDG, coated sheets) remains in force. Approximately 10 million tonnes/year of capacity from Mobarakeh and Khuzestan Steel stays offline. Even if a peace deal is signed, capacity restoration will take months. [IRNA May 28]
- 📌 China billet FOB falls to $470-473/t — fourth weekly decline as buyers hold back ▼ – Bids fell $2-4/t on the week. Mills are offering $480-485/t, but overseas buyers remain cautious. HRC tradeable prices dropped to $498-500/t FOB. The correction is decelerating — signs of approaching equilibrium. [SMM June 2; Mysteel May 31]
- 📌 SARS publishes rebate guidance for South Africa’s new steel tariffs ▲ – Notice R.782 (May 28) provides the first actionable process to claim a full duty rebate on products not manufactured locally. Importers must obtain a letter of authority from ITAC. Processing takes up to 15 working days. [SARS May 28]
- 📌 Nigeria’s July 1 excise and green tax deadline only four weeks away — naira stable ▶️ – The naira held steady for the fourth consecutive week at N1,372-1,375/$ (official) and N1,395/$ (parallel). Reserves above $50.2 billion. The SONCAP temporary waiver expired May 10; full NSW compliance now required.
- 📌 BDI rises to 3,112 — Capesize back above 5,000 ▲ – Freight costs resume their upward trend after a brief late‑May correction. CFR landed costs for Africa‑bound cargo face renewed pressure. [Baltic Exchange June 2]
💰 Price & Cost Analysis (Partial)
🇨🇳 China – FOB Export Prices (Sample)
| Product | Price (FOB China) | Trend | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Billet (3SP, 150mm) | $470-473/t FOB (bids); $480-485/t (offers) | ▼ | SMM June 2 |
| HRC (SS400, 3mm, Tianjin) | $498-500/t FOB (tradeable) | ▼ | Mysteel May 31 |
🇳🇬 Nigeria – CFR Lagos (Sample)
| Product | Estimated Price | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Billet | $605-625/t CFR | ▼ |
| Rebar | $675-705/t CFR | ▼ |
CFR estimates include FOB + freight + 35% import duty + 7.5% VAT + 1% CISS + 7% port levy. China’s zero‑tariff policy for 53 African countries applies.
💡 Sample Actionable Advice
For Procurement Managers:
✅ Accelerate Nigerian orders — July 1 deadline is four weeks away. FOB prices at four‑week lows, naira stable, reserves robust. Open Form M now.
✅ File ITAC rebate applications for South Africa immediately. Notice R.782 provides a clear process; obtain the letter of authority before cargo arrives.
For Export Sales Managers:
✅ Hold firm on billet/HRC offers — correction is losing steam. Iran ban locked in, LME forward curve above $500/t through Q3.
✅ Pause non‑rebate structural steel quotes to South Africa. Redirect to Nigeria and Egypt — the two strongest markets today.
📥 Get the Full Report
The complete Africa Steel Weekly Report includes:
- Full CFR price tables for all 10 African countries with exact duty, levy and freight calculations
- Detailed policy & compliance updates (SONCAP, GOEIC, SARS rebate, Morocco safeguard)
- Market landscape & local industry value analysis by product category (billet, HRC, rebar, pipe, CRC/HDG, stainless, CRGO)
- Anti‑dumping and trade‑remedy analysis with alternative origins and specifications
- Logistics and port congestion tracker
- 10‑12 tailored action recommendations for procurement and sales managers
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