Report Period: May 20 – 27, 2026 | Analyst: Amy SteelInsights
📌 Sample Insight: The Market Freezes as Iran Decision Looms and Currencies Crumble
The Events: Iran’s export ban on 66 steel tariff codes is set to expire on May 30, creating a binary supply risk that has paralyzed procurement decisions across Southeast Asia. Simultaneously, the Philippine peso closed at a record‑low of PHP 61.75/$ and the Indonesian rupiah approached 17,800/USD — its weakest since the 1998 Asian financial crisis. Three Asian currencies hit all‑time lows in the same week.
The Week‑on‑Week Impact: Chinese HRC export prices held steady at $502–508/t FOB, but only through mill discipline — Tangshan domestic billet fell RMB 60/t to RMB 3,020/t, the clearest signal yet that the post‑holiday rally has exhausted itself. The BDI extended its retreat for a sixth session to 2,964, removing freight as a cost‑push driver. The Philippine billet market remained deadlocked: offers at $520/t CFR, bids at $510/t CFR, with almost no transactions bridging the gap. CISA formally proposed billet export restrictions after Jan–May exports surged 306% YoY to 4.7 million tonnes. Vietnam’s trade remedy machinery accelerated with new sunset review applications. Malaysia initiated a CRC sunset review covering China, South Korea, Japan, and Vietnam.
Why This Matters for Your Decisions:
If you are a Procurement Manager, the Iran ban decision on May 30 is the most significant binary supply event for Southeast Asian steel since the conflict began. Deferring bulk slab and HRC orders until the outcome is clear could save you $10–20/t if the ban expires. If you are a Sales Manager, the Philippine billet market has been frozen for four weeks. Redirecting tonnage to markets where currencies are stable — or using FX‑linked pricing — is now a commercial necessity, not a strategic option.
💰 Sample Price Benchmarks (Week 21 vs. Week 20)
| Product | Market | Week 20 Price | Week 21 Price | WoW Change | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HRC (SS400, 3mm) | FOB China (Tianjin) | $508/t | $508/t | Unchanged | Mill discipline; RMB appreciation |
| Billet (3SP, 150mm) | FOB China (Jiangyin) | $476–477/t | $474–475/t | –$2/t | Domestic billet weakness transmitting |
| Billet (imported, 3SP) | CFR Philippines (assessment) | $515/t | $515/t | Unchanged | Stalemate; $10/t bid‑offer spread |
| BDI | Global | 2,964 (May 21) | ~2,950 | –14 points | Capesize and Panamax weakness |
| PHP | Philippines | 61.75 (May 20) | 61.73 (May 23) | Depreciation | Record‑low close |
| IDR | Indonesia | 17,730 (May 20) | 17,800 (May 26) | Depreciation | Weakest since 1998 Asian crisis |
| Tangshan Billet | China Domestic | RMB 3,080/t | RMB 3,020/t | –RMB 60/t | Fourth decline in five sessions |
Source: Mysteel, SMM, BigMint, Baltic Exchange, BSP, BI
🛡️ Sample Policy Alert: CISA Proposes Billet Export Curbs — Medium‑Term Supply Risk
On May 20, the China Iron and Steel Association formally proposed to relevant state ministries that export restrictions on steel billets be implemented, following a 306% YoY surge in Jan–May exports to 4.7 million tonnes. This introduces material medium‑term policy risk for Southeast Asian billet buyers who have become increasingly dependent on Chinese supply since Iran’s export ban. If implemented, these restrictions could sharply tighten billet availability in ASEAN and force regional buyers to source more expensive alternatives from India, the CIS, or domestic ASEAN mills.
💡 Sample Actionable Advice
For Procurement Managers:
- Defer bulk HRC procurement decisions until after May 30. The Iran export ban decision is the most significant binary supply event for the regional steel market. Chinese domestic billet is falling (–RMB 60/t in Tangshan), the BDI is retreating, and Middle East buyers are absent due to Eid al‑Adha. There is no urgency to commit to bulk orders this week.
For Sales Managers:
- Accept that the post‑holiday rally has ended. Quote HRC competitively at 498–505/tFOB,not498–505/tFOB,not508–515/t. Domestic Chinese billet prices are declining, the BDI has reversed, and RMB appreciation is eroding dollar‑denominated competitiveness. The market is telling you the rally is over.
📥 Want the Full Week 21 Report with WoW Comparison Data?
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📧 Questions or custom data requests? Contact Amy SteelInsights at amy@amyinsights.com