Report Period: May 20 โ May 27, 2026
Analyst: Amy SteelInsights (amyinsights.com)
*This is a limited preview. The full report includes complete price tables for China, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Turkey, Iran, Iraq, and Egypt, a full market structure deep dive by product category (billet, rebar, HRC, CRC, HDG, pipe, stainless steel, CRGO), a week-on-week deep dive comparing this period to May 13โ20, and specific quantified action items for procurement and sales teams.*
๐ Core Insights Preview (Excerpt from Full Report)
- Hormuz Transits Surge Past 30/Day โ Diplomatic Breakthrough Underwayย โ Iran’s IRGC coordinated 25 vessel transits in 24 hours, with daily crossings exceeding 30 for the first time since February. Back-channel US-Iran negotiations are directly driving the recovery, with the potential to lift the blockade entirely. (Sources: IRGC, Bernama, NewsBase)
- UAE EMSTEEL Raises June Rebar by AED 100/t โ First Hike Since Februaryย โ After three months of price stability, EMSTEEL broke its freeze, increasing June rebar prices by over AED 100/t ($27/t). Rising scrap costs, persistent billet shortages, and maritime transport disruptions overwhelmed the cautious demand strategy. (Sources: BigMint, MEsteel)
- China Billet FOB Consolidates in Volatile Range โ $474โ478/t After Post-Rally Correction โ Billet export prices dipped to $474โ475/ton on May 26 due to RMB appreciation, then rebounded to $477โ478/t as market inquiries increased. The market appears to have found a consolidation range after the earlier decline. (Sources: SMM, BigMint, Mysteel)
- Turkish Scrap Softens โ Margin Squeeze Intensifies to Critical Level โ Imported scrap prices declined to $400โ405/t CFR, while rebar held near $590/t FOB, compressing the scrap-to-rebar spread to $177โ179/t โ well below the $200/t breakeven level and the narrowest in this reporting period. (Sources: BigMint, LME)
- Iran Export Ban Deadline Approaches โ Extension Clause Active, Decision Imminentย โ The May 30 expiration of the ban on 66 tariff codes is just days away. The original directive contains an explicit extension clause, and with Mobarakeh Steel in near-total shutdown, extension is overwhelmingly probable. (Sources:ย China.org.cn,ย Al Arabiya)
๐ฐ Price Snapshot (Selected Benchmarks)
| Product | Origin/Market | Price (This Week) | Weekly Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Billet (3SP, 150mm) | China FOB | $474โ478/t | โ ๏ธ Volatile Consolidation |
| HRC (SS400, 3mm) | China FOB | $508/t | โธ๏ธ Stable |
| Rebar (B500B) | Turkey FOB | ~$590/t | โธ๏ธ Stable |
| Scrap (HMS 80:20) | CFR Turkey | $400โ405/t | โผ Softening |
| Rebar (June-delivery) | Saudi Hadeed | SAR 3,000โ3,100/t | โธ๏ธ Held |
| Rebar (June EXW) | UAE EMSTEEL | AED 2,821/t ($768/t) | โฒ First Hike Since Feb |
| Baltic Dry Index | Global dry bulk | 2,913 | โผ Continued Decline |
| Hormuz Daily Vessels | Transit throughput | 30+ | โฒ Diplomatic Breakthrough |
*Full report includes: Complete FOB China table across eight product categories, Saudi three-tier rebar market analysis, UAE EMSTEEL hike implications, Turkey scrap-to-rebar margin compression tracking, Egypt safeguard duty-adjusted landed costs, Iran May 30 binary risk analysis, and detailed week-on-week changes versus the prior period.*
๐ข Port & Logistics Status Summary
| Port | Status | Steel Import Viability | Key Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jebel Ali (UAE) | ๐ด Paralyzed | Effectively Closed | Import dwell time 64.6 days; Gulf avoidance structurally embedded |
| Dammam (Saudi) | ๐ด Restricted | Inaccessible | All cargo must divert via Jeddah with $65โ125/t inland trucking |
| Jeddah (Saudi) | ๐ก Operational | Primary Gateway | Chinese HRC booked at $595โ601/t CFR benchmark established |
| Sohar (Oman) | ๐ข Operational | Viable Alternative | Low congestion; inland trucking to UAE adds $55โ75/t |
๐ก Actionable Advice Preview
For Procurement Managers (Buyers)
- โ Tactically lock Chinese billet at $474โ478/t FOB while the consolidation window holds.ย The BDI has declined 8.8% from its May peak, improving landed costs. Iran’s deadline is days away and extension is probable โ the supply gap will persist. Lock 25โ30% of Q3 billet requirements on CFR Jeddah or CFR Sohar basis now.
- โณ Hold rebar orders pending Hadeed’s July-rolling price announcement.ย All sector participants expect a decline driven by Hajj/Eid seasonal slowdown. Competing mills are eager to sell below SAR 2,900/t. Wait for the announcement, then execute tactical spot purchases within days before deferred demand returns.
For Export Sales Managers (Sellers)
- โ Target Saudi stainless steel pipe market โ Chinese AD duties take effect June 30.ย Saudi Arabia’s final anti-dumping duties on Chinese stainless steel welded pipes create an immediate opportunity for non-Chinese suppliers. Indian, Taiwanese, and Korean producers should target desalination and petrochemical projects with 304/304L, 316/316L, and duplex grades.
- โ Maintain CFR Jeddah HRC offers at $555โ580/t with transparent cost breakdowns.** Chinese HRC FOB is stable at $508/t, the BDI decline is improving freight costs, and structural export competitiveness remains strong. Use itemized pricing to resist buyer pressure for deep discounts.
๐ What You Get in the Full Report
The complete 20+ page weekly report equips you for six-figure procurement and sales decisions with:
- Comprehensive Price Tables:ย 40+ price points across 8 product categories and 6 regional markets, all with source citations.
- Market Structure Deep Dive (By Product Category):ย Detailed analysis of billet, rebar, HRC, CRC, HDG, carbon steel pipe, stainless steel, and CRGO โ covering market size, growth drivers, local industry competitiveness, import dependency, product specifications, downstream end-use, and anti-dumping context.
- Week-on-Week Deep Dive:ย A dedicated section comparing this week’s data against May 13โ20 across seven dimensions โ prices, policy, currencies, logistics, sentiment, new data, and overall assessment โ with a forward price forecast and three supporting arguments.
- Iran May 30 Binary Risk Analysis:ย Detailed assessment of the approaching export suspension deadline, with separate procurement and sales strategies for extension vs. lifting scenarios.
- Anti-Dumping Impact Analysis:ย Summary of active AD measures affecting GCC steel trade, alternative suppliers for affected products, and strategies for both Chinese and non-Chinese exporters.
- Dual-Perspective Action Items:ย Separate, prioritized advice for procurement teams and export sales teams with specific price triggers, routing recommendations, and compliance guidance.
Disclaimer: This free sample contains excerpts from the May 27, 2026, Middle East Steel Weekly Report compiled by Amy SteelInsights. Data is sourced from Mysteel, SMM, BigMint, Kallanish, MEsteel, Baltic Exchange, LME, IRGC, Bernama, and official government announcements. Geopolitical conditions, freight rates, war risk premiums, and port accessibility are subject to rapid change. This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute trading or investment advice.
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