Sample Edition – May 20, 2026
Full Report Period: May 13 – 20, 2026 (with WoW comparison vs. May 6–13)
Coverage: Nigeria | Egypt | South Africa | Algeria | Morocco | Kenya | Tanzania | Ethiopia | Ghana | Angola
📌 This Week’s Defining Shifts (Preview)
One tariff decision just changed the rules for the continent’s largest steel import market, while a logistics shock reshaped East African supply chains. Below is a preview of the forces that will drive your next procurement or sales decision.
- South Africa imposed the steepest steel tariff hikes in 20 years – Effective May 15, duties rose to 10% on flat-rolled steel, 10–20% on tubes and pipes, and up to 30% on downstream products across more than 600 tariff codes. Combined with existing anti-dumping duties, Chinese structural steel to South Africa is now commercially unviable.
- China’s export prices retreated across all products as buyer resistance held firm – Billet FOB fell to $476–477/t, while HRC offers at $510+/t saw almost no transactions. The pullback is broad-based but orderly, driven by overseas buyers pushing back against elevated post‑holiday prices.
- A nationwide strike in Kenya pushed Mombasa port waiting time to 5.0 days, while Dar es Salaam improved dramatically to 2.33 days – The East African logistics picture has flipped. Dar es Salaam is now the preferred gateway.
- Nigeria’s naira official‑parallel spread narrowed to N11.35 per dollar – the tightest in over a year – Combined with falling FOB prices and the approaching July 1 tax deadline, this creates the strongest procurement window for Nigerian importers in months.
💰 Price Snapshot with Week‑on‑Week Comparison (Partial Data)
| Product | Last Week (May 6–13) | This Week (May 13–20) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Billet (FOB China) | $483–488/t | $476–477/t | ▼ |
| HRC (FOB China) | $499–510/t | $505–530/t (offers, few transactions) | ▶️▼ |
| Nigeria CFR Rebar (all‑in, est.) | $690–720/t | $685–715/t | ▼ |
| Egypt CFR HRC (incl. 13.6% safeguard) | $645–675/t | $640–670/t | ▼ |
| South Africa CFR Structural (China) | Base + 74.98% AD | Base + 74.98% AD + 10–30% | ▲▲ |
| Iron ore (62% Fe CFR China) | ~$113.15/dmt | ~$110.95/dmt | ▼ |
| BDI (Baltic Dry Index) | 3,063 | 3,005 | ▼ |
Full CFR estimates for all ten African markets, exact duty and levy calculations, and viability assessments are available in the complete report.
💡 Sample Actionable Advice
For Procurement Managers:
- Lock in billet and HRC during the current correction window – The $7–11/t pullback from mid‑May peaks, combined with stable naira and declining freight costs, creates a tactical entry point that may close if Iran’s export ban is extended beyond May 30.
- Immediately redirect South Africa‑bound structural steel orders – The combined duty burden now exceeds 85–105% for Chinese structural steel. Source from Thailand (20.32% AD) or India, and review ITAC rebate provisions for products not manufactured locally.
For Export Sales Managers:
- Hold firm on offers – this is a tactical pullback, not a trend reversal – Chinese domestic demand fundamentals remain healthy, inventories are declining, and Baosteel’s fourth consecutive monthly price hike supports the structural floor. Do not chase the market lower.
- Pause all South Africa structural steel quotes and redirect to Nigeria, Egypt, and East Africa – The zero‑tariff policy for 53 African countries, stable naira, and robust Egyptian demand (+30.5% YoY rebar consumption) make these markets the strongest growth opportunities right now.
🌍 What You Get in the Full Report
- Complete FOB China and CFR Africa price tables for all major products, with week‑on‑week change quantification
- Deep‑dive policy analysis: South Africa’s 10–30% tariff escalation, Iran ban countdown (May 30), Egypt AD probe closure, Nigeria CET framework
- Freight and logistics tracker: BDI retreat, Mombasa vs. Dar es Salaam port congestion reversal, Maersk/CMA CGM peak season surcharges
- Currency and FX dashboard: Nigeria naira convergence, Egypt pound stabilization, South Africa rand under tariff and inflation pressure
- Supply and inventory dynamics by country, including Tosyali Algeria premium steel launch (Jul–Aug 2026) and Simandou ramp‑up
- 10–12 tailored action recommendations for procurement managers and export sales managers
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