Report Period: May 13 โ May 20, 2026
Analyst: Amy SteelInsights (amyinsights.com)
๐ Core Insights Snapshot (Full Version Contains 8โ10 Detailed Bulletins)
- Rally Re-Acceleratesย โ Nucor raised its HRC CSP $10/st to $1,090/st, marking the 18th consecutive weekly increase and a cumulative YTD gain of $140/st since January 20. CSI followed to $1,140/st. The early-May plateau was not a top โ it was a consolidation before the next leg higher.
- Capacity Utilisation Hits 82.2%ย โ Highest Since May 2022. AISI reported raw steel production ofย 1,898,000 stย for the week ending May 16, the highest output since March 2020. YTD production is upย 6.5%ย YoY, with three of five regions increasing week-on-week.
- OCTG Supply Tightens on Multiple Frontsย โ The USITC voted unanimously on May 15 to advance AD/CVD investigations against Austria, Taiwan, and UAE OCTG. Combined with the five-year extension of Chinese duties and CBSAโs Austrian dumping finding, North American tubular supply faces structural constraints.
- USMCA Countdown Beginsย โ The first formal US-Mexico bilateral round is set for May 25. The US has proposed โunified tariff bordersโ requiring Canada and Mexico to align external steel tariffs with Section 232, while a new DOC mechanism allows tariff reductions tied to US-based investment.
- Service Center Inventories at 5-Year Lowย โ Sheet inventories are at their lowest since May 2021, while 44% of buyers report increasing demand โ the highest since June 2021. The resulting restocking cycle will sustain demand through at least mid-Q3.
๐ฐ Price Snapshot (Abbreviated)
Product This Week Trend Source
US Midwest HRC (SMU avg) $1,090/st โฒ SMU, May 19
Nucor CSP HRC $1,090/st โฒ Nucor, May 18US Galvalume (SMU avg) $1,255/st โฒ SMU, May 19US Plate (SMU avg) $1,245/st โธ๏ธ SMU, May 19
US Rebar (FOB mill) $800โ820/st โธ๏ธ SMM, May 19
Baltic Dry Index 3,054 โผ Baltic Exchange, May 20
๐ก Sample Actionable Advice
For Procurement Managers:
โ
Lock Q2โearly Q3 flat-rolled requirements immediately. Lead times have stretched to 5โ11 weeks (average 7.0 weeks), and mills at 82.2% capacity are running late. Sheet inventories at a five-year low mean the restocking cycle hasnโt started yet. Every week of delay costs money and delivery certainty.
For Export Sales Managers:
โ
Quote aggressive CFR US โ the import conversation has reopened. With US buyers facing extended lead times and depleted inventories, the spread between landed import cost and domestic pricing is attracting interest for the first time since April. Transparent Section 232 classification and โmelt and pourโ compliance documentation are now competitive differentiators.
Unlock the Full Report to Access:
- Complete pricing tables for HRC, CRC, HDG, Galvalume, Plate, Rebar, OCTG, and Billet across the US, Canada, and Mexico
- In-depth analysis of Nucorโs re-acceleration and what it signals for Q3 pricing
- Full breakdown of AISI April SIMA data, including the 109% surge in Mexican imports
- OCTG enforcement tracker: USITC vote, CBP rulings, and CBSA findings
- USMCA preparation guide with โunified tariff bordersโ scenario analysis
- Manzanillo port disruption update and routing alternatives
- Dedicated week-on-week comparison of all key metrics vs. May 6โ13
- Exclusive โBuy/Sell/Holdโ recommendations for 8 product categories
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๐ง Questions or Custom Analysis? Contact Amy directly:ย amy@amyinsights.com