📡 2026.5.13CIS Steel Weekly Report — Free Sample

Report Period: May 6–13, 2026
Coverage: Russia | Ukraine | Kazakhstan
Includes: Week-on-Week Deep Dive (vs. April 29 – May 6) across price, policy, FX, logistics, and sentiment

📌 1. Core Insights (Sample Excerpts)

📌 Novorossiysk port operations collapse — only one tanker departed in seven days — A massive drone attack damaged two oil depots and triggered a complete port blackout. War risk insurance premiums now exceed 1% of vessel hull value, and alternative routing is no longer optional for Black Sea shipments. 🔴 (Source: Bloomberg/UNN, May 12; Militarnyi, May 6, 2026)

📌 Rouble surges to strongest since February 2023 — Russian billet offers pushed higher — The rouble has strengthened sharply over the past month, mechanically forcing Russian mills to raise dollar-denominated asking prices to preserve local-currency revenue. The traditional Russian discount to Chinese billet has vanished as FOB levels converge. ▲ (Source: TASS/CBR, May 12; Trading Economics, May 7, 2026)

📌 Russia-China billet spread converges to parity — a historic competitive reset — For the first time in over two years, Russian and Chinese billet FOB prices stand at near-identical levels. The era of the mandatory Russian discount is over, fundamentally changing how CIS sellers must compete for volume. Full price tables, CFR benchmarks, and competitiveness spreadsheets are reserved for subscribers. (Source: BigMint, May 2/11; SteelHome, May 2026)

📌 European Parliament formally backs special CBAM regime for Ukraine — MEPs urged the European Commission to consider a special carbon border regime for Ukraine. Combined with the EC’s acknowledgment of a calculation error in default emissions, the political pathway for restoring Ukraine’s EU steel market access is widening. (Source: Interfax-Ukraine, May 13; GMK Center, May 12, 2026)

📌 BDI crosses 3,000 for first time since late 2023 — freight costs adding to delivered prices — Strong Brazilian iron ore exports and healthy coal demand are driving a dry bulk rally that compounds the logistics cost pressure already created by Black Sea war risk premiums. (Source: Baltic Exchange, May 12, 2026)

💰 2. Price & Cost Analysis (Sample Structure — Data Reserved)

🇷🇺 Russia – Export Prices (FOB Black Sea)

Competitiveness Assessment – Russia vs. China vs. Turkey

🔒 Full price tables — including CFR Turkey/Asia/India benchmarks, Ukrainian distressed pricing, Kazakhstan rail-based export values, and the complete week-on-week change comparison across seven dimensions — are available exclusively in the complete report. The deep dive details how the Russia-China FOB spread has converged to parity and the exact currency mechanics driving the shift.

🛡️ 3. Geopolitical & Logistics Risk (Sample Excerpts)

Novorossiysk — Operational Collapse Confirmed

• Week to May 10: Only one crude oil tanker departed the port. Oil export revenues fell sharply. Satellite imagery confirmed oil berths remained empty for multiple days.
• May 6 Attack: A massive nighttime drone strike damaged two oil depots and two terminals, triggered over 30 explosions, and caused a complete port blackout.
• May 3 Attack: Naval drones struck two shadow fleet tankers at the port entrance. The threat environment is active and escalating.

Black Sea Shipping Risk Rating

🔒 War risk insurance premium calculations, alternative port routing cost models, and freight rate projections through Q3 2026 are reserved for subscribers. The full report includes the Baltic Dry Index’s surge above 3,000 and its impact on delivered steel costs.

⚖️ 5. Policy & Compliance Update (Sample Excerpts)

🔒 Full legislative tracking with implementation timelines, SPOT system compliance checklists, country-specific EU quota allocation analysis, and strategic guidance on navigating the tightening sanctions regime is reserved for subscribers.

💡 6. Actionable Advice (Sample Framework)

For Procurement Managers (Buyers)

• ✅ Secure Russian billet now — The rouble is at its strongest since February 2023 and projected to strengthen further. Each unit of rouble appreciation mechanically drives dollar prices higher. Specific entry targets, timing windows, and rouble trajectory modeling are reserved for subscribers.
• ✅ Accelerate Kazakh billet shipments — The June 11 public discussion deadline on the six-month export ban provides a narrowing window to secure Qarmet material via war-risk-free rail routes. Contingency strategies and alternative origin mapping are in the full report.
• ⚠️ Prepare for SPOT mandatory enforcement — Non-compliant cargo will be denied entry from July 1. Step-by-step compliance guidance and customs broker engagement checklists are available to subscribers.

For Export Sales Managers (Sellers)

• ✅ Price Russian billet confidently at parity with China — The traditional discount era is over. Differentiate on delivery speed, payment channel cost savings, and prompt availability. Target CFR levels and regional buyer mapping are reserved for subscribers.
• ✅ Differentiate through SPFS and BRICS Pay settlement — With price parity, the 1–2% settlement cost advantage is now your key competitive edge. Detailed fee comparisons, connected bank lists, and negotiation tactics are in the full report.
• ✅ Position Ukrainian steel ahead of CBAM political momentum — The EU Parliament’s formal endorsement of special treatment is a potential turning point. Market re-entry strategies and non-EU buyer targeting are reserved for subscribers.

🌍 7. Major Events This Week (Sample Headlines)

• May 6–10: Novorossiysk port operations collapse — only one tanker departs in seven days; massive drone attack damages two oil depots and causes city-wide blackout.
• May 13: European Parliament formally urges the European Commission to consider a special CBAM regime for Ukraine.
• May 12: Rouble strengthens to 73.79/USD — its strongest level since February 2023 — driving further increases in Russian billet dollar offers.
• May 9: EU formally confirms 18.35 million tonne steel import quota framework; 50% out-of-quota tariff effective July 1.
• May 10: China Tangshan billet surges RMB 60/t to a nine-month high, supporting firm Chinese export offers.
• May 12: BDI crosses 3,000 points for the first time since late 2023, adding freight cost pressure to global steel trade.
• Kazakhstan billet export ban draft decree remains under public discussion until June 11.
• Russia SPOT system — three weeks until mandatory enforcement begins; cargo without QR code will be returned to origin.

🔒 Full event details with source links, impact assessments, and dedicated procurement and sales advice are available in the subscriber version.

Why Subscribe to the Full Report?

This free sample provides a structural overview of the CIS Steel Weekly Report. The complete report delivers the specific, dollar-denominated data and actionable guidance you need to make confident procurement and sales decisions in one of the world’s most volatile steel markets.

Subscribers receive:

• Real-time FOB/CFR prices for billet, slab, HRC, rebar, and pig iron across all CIS origins, with week-on-week and year-on-year comparisons.
• A dedicated Week-on-Week Deep Dive section analyzing price changes across seven dimensions — price trends, policy shifts, exchange rates, logistics, market sentiment, new data, and overall assessment — with clear attribution of high/medium/low weight to each driver.
• Exclusive “Buy/Wait/Sell” calls with precise price targets, entry levels, and timing recommendations — updated every seven days.
• Full legislative tracking including the SPOT pre-clearance system, Russia’s import consumption tax timeline, EU sanctions phase-out calendar, Kazakhstan’s draft export ban, and Ukraine’s historic CBAM negotiations.
• Black Sea war risk premium models updated weekly, with alternative port routing cost comparisons.
• Iran supply shock impact analysis — quantifying the structural billet deficit by region and the resulting price implications for Russian, Chinese, and Indian origins.
• Payment channel compliance guides — step-by-step SPFS pre-verification checklists, BRICS Pay adoption status, and sanctions screening protocols.
• Rouble trajectory modeling — translating currency forecasts into dollar-denominated billet price scenarios to support procurement budgeting and sales pricing decisions.

Disclaimer: This sample is for illustrative purposes only. The full report compiles data from authoritative sources including BigMint, SteelOrbis, Mysteel, Kallanish, SteelRadar, SMM, SteelHome, GMK Center, Ukrmetallurgprom, TASS, Central Bank of Russia, European Commission, Baltic Exchange, Bloomberg, Militarnyi, Interfax-Kazakhstan, and Trading Economics. All price estimates, forecasts, and actionable advice are exclusive to the paid subscription. Sanctions, trade policies, and logistics conditions are subject to rapid change. Russia-related trade carries heightened legal and financial risk.

📥 Download Full Report (Watermarked)
👉 Subscribe Monthly — Never miss a market shift
👉 Subscribe Annually — Best value for procurement and sales teams
📧 Questions? Need a custom market? Contact amy@amyinsights.com