Sample Edition – May 6, 2026
Full Report Period: April 29 – May 6, 2026 (with WoW comparison vs. April 22–29)
Coverage: Nigeria | Egypt | South Africa | Algeria | Morocco | Kenya | Tanzania | Ethiopia | Ghana | Angola
📌 This Week’s Defining Shifts (Preview)
Three developments have just altered the African steel import landscape. Below is a preview of the forces that will drive your next procurement or pricing decision.
- China eliminates tariffs on all steel products to 53 African nations – Effective May 1, 2026, 100% zero‑tariff treatment now applies across the continent. This structural shift changes the landed‑cost equation for every Chinese steel shipment arriving in Lagos, Alexandria, and Durban.
- Iran warns its steel export ban may now extend beyond May 30 – The emergency clause has been activated, meaning the 10 million‑tonne‑per‑year supply gap in billets, slabs, and flats is no longer a short‑term disruption. Gulf buyers are already bidding up Chinese and Indian alternatives.
- The Baltic Dry Index surged to a two‑year high – A 5.61% single‑day jump on May 6 pushed freight costs to levels not seen since December 2023. Month‑on‑month, the cost of shipping steel to Africa has risen by nearly two‑thirds.
💰 Price Snapshot with Week‑on‑Week Comparison (Partial Data)
| Product | Last Week (Apr 22–29) | This Week (Apr 29–May 6) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Billet (FOB China) | $470–475/t | $480/t | ▲ |
| HRC (FOB China) | $493–496/t | $500–505/t | ▲ |
| Nigeria CFR Rebar (all‑in, est.) | $680–710/t | $690–720/t | ▲ |
| Egypt CFR HRC (incl. 13.6% safeguard) | $640–665/t | $650–680/t | ▲ |
Full CFR estimates, duty‑by‑duty calculations, and viability assessments across all ten African markets are available in the complete report.
💡 Sample Actionable Advice
For Procurement Managers:
- Lock in fixed‑price CFR contracts immediately – FOB China is rising, and the Baltic Dry Index is adding $8–15/t to freight versus early April. Delay costs real money.
- Verify the zero‑tariff interaction with Nigeria’s 35% FPM rate – The duty saving could be substantial, but only if you confirm how the policies stack with your customs authority before the July 1 tax deadline.
For Export Sales Managers:
- Quote CFR Africa now with the zero‑tariff advantage built in – No other major steel‑exporting economy offers African buyers this cost edge.
- Fill Iran’s billet and slab supply gap – The extension warning means African buyers cannot count on Iranian supply returning in June. Secure your allocations for Q3 delivery.
🌍 What You Get in the Full Report
- Complete FOB China and CFR Africa price tables for all major products, with week‑on‑week change quantification
- Detailed policy analysis: China zero‑tariff, Iran export ban extension, Egypt safeguards, South Africa AD duties, Morocco sunset review
- Freight and logistics deep‑dive: BDI at 2,991, Mombasa waiting time improvement, Dar es Salaam performance
- Currency and FX tracker: Nigeria naira appreciation breaching N1,400 threshold, Egypt pound stabilization
- Supply and inventory dynamics by country, including mill maintenance impacts and Simandou ramp‑up
- 10–12 tailored recommendations for procurement managers and export sales managers
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📧 Questions? Custom reports? Contact amy@amyinsights.com